GET DAILY SIGNALSWhy Is FutureFuel Corp. (FF) Stock Down -37.87% Today?
Key Takeaways
- FutureFuel Corp. (FF) shares plunged 37.87% in the opening minutes of Tuesday's session, falling from a $5.07 prior close to about $3.15.
- The primary catalyst was the third-quarter earnings report released after Monday's close: revenue jumped 361% to $104.7 million, but the company still posted a net loss of $8.4 million.
- The biofuels segment drove the disappointment, with its gross loss widening to $9.8 million from $2.4 million a year earlier, alongside $8.7 million in net derivative losses.
- Secondary pressure came from the balance sheet, where cash dropped to $21.3 million from $51.3 million at the end of December 2025.
- A regulatory overhang adds to the bear case: the renewable diesel RIN equivalency factor steps down to 1.5 from 1.7 on January 1, 2027, eroding biodiesel's pricing advantage.
- The stock broke to a new 52-week low of $3.05, and turnover ran far above its recent average pace.
- News Significance Score: 78/100 - A materially negative earnings report met a decline roughly 18 times the stock's typical daily swing.
- Traders now focus on the 11:00 a.m. ET earnings call and management's target of about $7 million in fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA.
- For deeper research, explore FutureFuel's Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages.
- Investors tracking momentum strategies can review the curated Trending AI Robots page.
FutureFuel Corp. is a Batesville, Arkansas-based manufacturer of custom and performance chemicals and bio-based fuels, operating a single integrated complex with roughly 250 million pounds of chemical capacity and 60 million gallons of annual biodiesel capacity. Its shares fell 37.87% on Tuesday, trading near $3.15 against Monday's close of $5.07 — a decisive move lower. The immediate cause was unambiguous: the company's third-quarter report, published after the bell on Monday, showed explosive top-line growth that still failed to produce a profit. Monday's close had already slipped 4.70% in anticipation of the release.
Q3 Results: Revenue Surged, Profitability Did Not
The headline numbers looked contradictory. Third-quarter sales reached $104.68 million, up from $22.69 million a year earlier, as manufacturing operations returned to normal and regulatory clarity on federal biofuel mandates improved. Nine-month revenue climbed to $215.35 million from $75.9 million. Yet the net loss was $8.39 million, or $0.19 per diluted share, versus $9.16 million and $0.21 a year ago — a marginal per-share improvement that masked a deteriorating mix.
The chemicals segment was the bright spot: revenue rose about 9% to $16.92 million and the segment swung to a $4.4 million gross profit from a year-earlier gross loss, helped by $2.5 million of sales from a new energy-market product and a five-year supply agreement signed in early October. But chemical utilization fell to 32% from 55%, implying a heavy fixed-cost drag ahead. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $4.93 million, including roughly $4.3 million of customer turnaround costs.
Biofuels: Volume Rose, Margins Collapsed
Biofuel revenue soared to $87.8 million from $7.1 million and utilization jumped to 83% from 56% in the second quarter. The problem was economics, not throughput. The segment's gross loss widened to $9.8 million from $2.4 million, with net derivative losses of $8.7 million and plant operating and fixed costs running $7.9 million above prior-year shutdown levels. Higher volumes at deeply negative margins is precisely the outcome that punishes a commodity-exposed manufacturer, and investors repriced the segment accordingly.
Compounding that, the renewable diesel RIN equivalency factor is set to drop to 1.5 from 1.7 effective January 1, 2027, roughly halving biodiesel's revenue advantage over renewable diesel. The change is structural and largely outside management's control.
Cash Burn Resets the Liquidity Debate
Operating cash flow was negative $10.3 million in the quarter and negative $11.5 million for the nine months, against a $1.3 million outflow a year earlier. Cash and equivalents ended September at $21.33 million, down from $34.3 million in June and $51.32 million at the end of 2025. A $35 million revolver remains undrawn, but with 43.86 million shares outstanding, the equity is now valued at roughly $138 million — and the market is no longer willing to fund losses at the old multiple.
Market Context and Trading Activity
Volume confirmed the conviction behind the selling. Monday's session traded 916,539 shares, roughly double the stock's recent average near 460,000, and opening turnover on Tuesday ran many multiples of the pace implied by that average. The decline carried FF beneath the bottom of its 52-week range of $3.09 to $6.99, a clean technical break with no obvious support nearby. The move was company-specific rather than tied to a broad industry announcement, and it extended a slide that began in mid-October when the shares traded above $5.80.
News Significance Score
On a scale where 0 means no meaningful news and a move that is normal for the stock, and 100 means transformative news paired with an extreme, rare price move, this session scores 78 out of 100. The verified news was substantial: a quarterly report showing a widening biofuels loss, weak chemical utilization and a $30 million reduction in cash since December.
Today's decline was roughly 18 times the stock's typical absolute daily move of about 2.1%, and no session in the past 60 trading days produced a comparable swing — the largest was a 23.45% gain in August. A strong catalyst and a statistically rare move combine into the high-70s score.
What Comes Next for FF
Management hosts its third-quarter call at 11:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, and commentary on biofuel hedging, turnaround costs and the pace of chemical demand will matter more than the printed results. The company is targeting roughly $7 million in fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA, supported by about $22 million of expected 45Z credit monetization in the second half, a full-year capital plan of $25.8 million that includes $10.2 million of customer-funded investment, and a glycerin project expected to contribute $5 million to $10 million annually from 2027. A new European chemical customer should begin shipping in the first quarter of 2027. FutureFuel carries no published sell-side consensus, so guidance rather than estimates sets the bar. The principal risks are biofuel margin volatility, derivative swings, a slow chemical utilization recovery, liquidity, and the January RIN factor change.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
FF in -6.11% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on November 09, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where FF declined for three days, in 185 of 258 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on FF as a result. In 62 of 94 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for FF turned negative on November 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 26 of the 41 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 63%.
FF moved below its 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for FF's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for FF crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 14 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Following a +2.10% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FF advanced for three days, in 193 of 271 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
FF may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 148 of 193 cases where FF Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 77%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 34 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.524) is normal, around the industry mean (2.284). P/E Ratio (-8.867) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-17.137). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.010) is also within normal values, averaging (1.548). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.039) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.553) is also within normal values, averaging (48.960).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. FF’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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General Information
a developer of specialty chemicals and biofuels
Industry ChemicalsSpecialty
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