GET DAILY SIGNALSWhy Is monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) Stock Down -2.92% Today?
Key Takeaways
- MNDY shares fell 2.92% to $77.60, extending a sharp post-earnings selloff that began in the prior session.
- The primary catalyst is lingering disappointment over weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue guidance issued alongside strong third-quarter results.
- Secondary drivers include a continued decline in net dollar retention (NDR) and a wave of analyst downgrades and price-target cuts.
- The company is navigating an AI-first transition, including a roughly 20% workforce reduction, which management says is creating near-term disruption.
- The decline diverges from a mixed-to-positive tape in broader software and technology indices, underscoring company-specific concerns.
- Traders are now watching whether selling stabilizes and how enterprise adoption of new AI products develops over coming quarters.
- Explore additional insights on Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast for MNDY.
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Opening Summary
monday.com Ltd. (MNDY), the Tel Aviv-based work management and work operating system software provider, extended its post-earnings decline on Tuesday. Shares finished the latest session around $77.60, down 2.92% from a prior close of $79.93. The move continues the selling pressure that followed the company's third-quarter 2026 report, as investors remain focused on a softer revenue outlook and decelerating customer-retention metrics rather than the quarter's headline earnings beat.
Weak Fourth-Quarter Guidance Overshadows a Strong Quarter
The core driver behind the slide is forward guidance. For the third quarter, MNDY reported revenue of $377.5 million, up roughly 19% year over year and above consensus estimates near $369 million, with adjusted earnings of $2.14 per share easily topping the $1.41 expected by analysts. The company also posted a record non-GAAP operating margin of 24%.
Those results, however, were overshadowed by management's fourth-quarter outlook. MNDY guided to revenue of $380 million to $382 million, implying year-over-year growth of about 14% — a meaningful deceleration from the third quarter and below the Street's roughly $385 million consensus. The softer guide reflects weak demand from small and midsize businesses, a strategic shift toward larger enterprise clients, and near-term disruption from a restructuring that reduced headcount by about 20%.
Declining Net Dollar Retention Signals Slower Expansion
Investors also homed in on net dollar retention, a closely watched metric of how much existing customers expand their spending. Overall NDR slipped to 108% from 109% in the prior quarter and 117% a year earlier. Similar declines appeared across larger customer cohorts, with retention for customers generating more than $100,000 in annual recurring revenue falling to 113% from 117%. Management indicated the metric could ease further, to roughly 107%, by year-end, reinforcing concerns that revenue growth may remain under pressure into 2027.
Analyst Downgrades Compound the Pressure
The earnings-driven weakness was amplified by a series of cautious analyst actions. Needham downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy, citing slowing customer-acquisition trends, while Canaccord cut its rating to Hold from Buy and lowered its price target to $90 from $115. BofA Securities and Jefferies each trimmed their price targets to $90, with BofA flagging an uncertain path for AI products to deliver a meaningful growth boost in the near term. The collective shift in sentiment weighed on shares throughout the session.
Market Context and Trading Activity
The decline in MNDY stood apart from a generally steadier tone across the broader software complex, indicating that company-specific factors — not a sector-wide rotation — drove the move. Trading volume remained elevated relative to recent averages, reflecting active repositioning following the earnings release and subsequent rating changes. The stock also trades far below its 52-week high near $166 set a year ago, leaving it in a pronounced technical downtrend with support levels under scrutiny as sellers pressed the post-earnings weakness.
What Comes Next for MNDY
The path forward for MNDY hinges on whether its AI-first transformation can reaccelerate growth. AI annual recurring revenue reached $36 million in the quarter, and AI agent interactions surpassed 6 million in under two quarters, signaling early adoption traction. Still, management cautioned that longer enterprise sales cycles, cautious AI spending, and SMB softness could persist through 2027, and that stabilizing revenue growth will take several quarters. Upcoming earnings, enterprise customer additions, and further retention data will be key signposts for investors, alongside any stabilization in go-to-market execution following the restructuring.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
MNDY in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
The 10-day moving average for MNDY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 14 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for MNDY's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +11.61% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MNDY advanced for three days, in 231 of 306 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
MNDY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 145 of 185 cases where MNDY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 78%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 03, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MNDY as a result. In 60 of 74 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MNDY turned negative on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 44 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
MNDY moved below its 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MNDY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MNDY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.015) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.906). P/E Ratio (36.185) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.554). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.314) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.069) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.434) is also within normal values, averaging (70.383).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MNDY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
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