GET DAILY SIGNALSWhy Is Qualys, Inc. (QLYS) Stock Down -10.00% Today?
Key Takeaways
- QLYS fell 10.00% in early trading Tuesday to $182.22, down $20.24 from Monday's close of $202.46.
- The primary catalyst was an earnings-driven reversal: fiscal third-quarter results beat estimates and full-year guidance rose, but management guided fourth-quarter billings growth to roughly 8%, down from 14% in the September quarter and 16% in the prior quarter.
- Secondary drivers included a slight contraction in non-GAAP operating and EBITDA margins, a flat net dollar expansion rate of 105%, a 2% decline in direct revenue, and management explicitly declining to promise near-term revenue acceleration.
- Broader context: software and cybersecurity shares were broadly lower, with the wider Nasdaq-100 tracking near a 0.8% decline, but nothing close to the scale of this single-stock drop.
- News Significance Score: 52/100 — a solid beat-and-raise undermined by a soft billings outlook, driving a move more than triple the stock's typical daily swing.
- Traders are watching whether the federal-heavy billings pipeline repeats in the December quarter, whether the 105% expansion rate improves, and whether buybacks continue to support per-share earnings.
- Explore detailed Price Targets, Earnings history, and forward Forecast pages for a deeper view of the setup.
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Opening Summary
Qualys, Inc. (QLYS) is a Foster City, California-based cybersecurity company whose cloud platform helps enterprises find, prioritize and remediate vulnerabilities across on-premise, cloud and federal environments. Its shares fell 10.00% early Tuesday to $182.22, down from the prior session's close of $202.46 — a decisive downward move confirmed across the price action. The reversal followed Monday evening's third-quarter report, which beat on revenue and adjusted earnings and raised full-year guidance, yet offered a fourth-quarter billings outlook that analysts and investors read as a cap on the reacceleration story that had driven a 52% year-to-date rally.
Earnings Beat Undone by a Billings Slowdown
The quarter itself was strong. Revenue rose 11% to $188.0 million, ahead of the roughly $186.6 million consensus, while adjusted earnings of $2.12 per share beat estimates near $1.96. Calculated current billings climbed about 14% to $211.9 million, and management lifted full-year revenue guidance to $736.9–$738.9 million and adjusted EPS to $8.07–$8.14.
The problem was the forward slope. Qualys guided fourth-quarter calculated current billings growth to approximately 8%, a sharp step down from 14% in the third quarter and 16% in the second. Management described the September period as an unprecedented federal quarter in which several large government deals — helped by the CISA directive requiring remediation of critical vulnerabilities within 72 hours — closed earlier than expected, and cautioned that federal business can be lumpy. The CFO told analysts not to expect near-term revenue acceleration, and the implied 9%–10% fourth-quarter revenue growth reinforced a business settling into high-single-digit expansion. Investors who had bid the stock up sharply ahead of the print on hopes of a durable reacceleration sold first and asked questions later.
Margin Compression and Retention Questions
Beneath the headline beat, profitability did not expand. Non-GAAP operating margin slipped to 46% from 47% a year earlier, and adjusted EBITDA margin eased to 48% from 49%, as sales and marketing spending grew about 17% — faster than revenue — under the company's partner-first strategy. Overall net dollar expansion held at 105% rather than improving, and direct revenue fell 2% even as channel revenue rose 24% and reached 55% of the top line. Earnings per share also benefited from a smaller diluted share count of 35.3 million, reflecting $185.6 million of repurchases through nine months. That mix of solid cash generation and thinner organic operating leverage gave bearish analysts room to argue the valuation had run ahead of fundamentals.
Market Context and Trading Activity
Volume was clearly elevated: roughly 98,000 shares traded in the first fifteen minutes of the session, against a three-month average near 350,000 shares for a full day. The stock opened at $182.50, plunged as low as $164.68 in the opening minutes — a brief decline of more than 18% — before recovering toward $182, a pattern consistent with forced selling into a thin early order book followed by buyers stepping in.
The move was mostly company-specific. Cybersecurity peers were mixed to lower, with vulnerability-management name Tenable (TENB) down about 5%, while Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) each slipped roughly 2% and the CIBR cybersecurity exchange-traded fund eased about 0.5%. Software broadly softened, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software fund down about 1% and the Nasdaq-100 tracking near a 0.8% decline. Qualys broke decisively below its 50-day moving average and erased roughly a month of gains, with the $190 area now acting as overhead resistance.
News Significance Score
The score runs from 0, meaning no meaningful news and a move that is normal for the stock, to 100, meaning transformative news and an extreme, rare price move. Qualys earns a 52 out of 100. The verified news was material — a quarterly beat, a guidance raise, and a billings outlook that reset growth expectations for a company of this size — but it was not transformative. The price reaction was the more unusual element: today's 10% decline was roughly 3.3 times the stock's typical daily move of about 3.1% over the past three months, and only two of the last 60-plus sessions produced a swing of 10% or more. Moderate fundamental news plus an outsized but not unprecedented reaction yields a mid-range score.
What Comes Next for QLYS
The next hard data point is the fourth-quarter report, expected in early February, when investors will learn whether federal bookings momentum persisted and whether the ~8% billings guide proved conservative. Ahead of that, watch channel disclosures and any updates on the CISA remediation mandate, which management views as a structural tailwind. Analyst sentiment remains cautious, with a consensus Hold rating and an average price target only modestly above current levels, so rating revisions in the coming days could move the stock. Key risks include lumpy government deal timing, a 105% expansion rate that limits upsell-driven growth, rising sales and marketing costs, competitive pressure from larger platform vendors, and a valuation that still assumes steady double-digit revenue growth despite guidance pointing lower.
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
Aroon Indicator for QLYS shows an upward move is likely
QLYS's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on November 03, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 211 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 163 of the 211 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +1.58% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where QLYS advanced for three days, in 221 of 330 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
QLYS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for QLYS moved out of overbought territory on October 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 16 of the 30 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 53%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on QLYS as a result. In 54 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for QLYS turned negative on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 39 of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 74%.
QLYS moved below its 50-day moving average on November 10, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where QLYS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. QLYS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. QLYS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.716) is normal, around the industry mean (16.360). P/E Ratio (32.829) is within average values for comparable stocks, (53.310). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.983) is also within normal values, averaging (3.696). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.434) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (9.320) is also within normal values, averaging (104.492).
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General Information
a provider of cloud security and compliance solutions
Industry ComputerCommunications
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