GET DAILY SIGNALSWhy Is Qualys, Inc. (QLYS) Stock Down -9.87% Today?
Key Takeaways
- Qualys, Inc. (QLYS) fell 9.87%, or $19.99, to $182.47 in Tuesday morning trading, giving back all of the prior session's 6.33% gain.
- The primary catalyst was the third-quarter earnings report released after Monday's close: a beat on both revenue and earnings, but a fourth-quarter billings outlook that signals a return to high-single-digit growth.
- Secondary drivers included a 46% non-GAAP operating margin versus 47% a year earlier, a 17% jump in sales and marketing spending, and a stalling 105% net dollar retention rate.
- Sell-side reaction focused on billings visibility; one long-standing bear reiterated a Sell rating with a $140 target, and the consensus rating remains Hold.
- Cybersecurity peers and the broader tape were soft, with the Nasdaq-100 and small caps both lower, but nothing close to the size of Qualys' decline.
- News Significance Score: 58/100 - A materially important earnings guidance signal matched with a move about three times the stock's typical daily swing.
- Traders are watching fourth-quarter billings, federal deal timing, and whether the shares can hold above the $165-$175 zone that has repeatedly drawn buyers since September.
- Deeper detail on Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast data for Qualys is available on Tickeron's dedicated ticker pages.
- Readers can also explore Trending AI Robots to see which automated strategies are performing best in the current market.
Opening Summary
Qualys, Inc. (QLYS) is a Foster City, California-based cybersecurity company whose cloud platform helps roughly 10,000 organizations discover assets, assess vulnerabilities, and automate remediation of cyber risk through its TruRisk and Enterprise TruRisk Management (ETM) products. Shares were trading at $182.47 on Tuesday morning, down $19.99 or 9.87% from the prior session's close of $202.46, after opening near $183 and briefly touching about $165 in the first quarter hour. The direction is unambiguously negative. The immediate reason is the market's read on Monday evening's third-quarter results and, more importantly, management's fourth-quarter billings guidance, which points to a deceleration after two unusually strong federal-driven quarters.
Earnings Beat Overshadowed by Fourth-Quarter Billings Outlook
The quarter itself was solid. Revenue rose 11% year over year to $188.0 million, ahead of the roughly $186.6 million consensus, while adjusted earnings of $2.12 per share beat estimates near $1.96. Calculated current billings grew 14% to $211.9 million, and the company raised full-year revenue guidance to $736.9-$738.9 million from $732.0-$738.0 million, and full-year adjusted EPS to $8.07-$8.14 from $7.74-$7.88.
What broke the narrative was the forward-looking detail. Management guided fourth-quarter revenue to $191-$193 million, implying 9% to 10% growth, and framed roughly 8% calculated current billings growth as the base case, down from 16% in the second quarter and 14% in the third. The chief financial officer said federal deals can be lumpy and explicitly cautioned against expecting a near-term acceleration in revenue growth. For a stock that had climbed 52% year to date, that was enough to reset expectations.
Margin Compression and Softening Underlying Metrics
Profitability was steady rather than expanding. Non-GAAP operating margin slipped to 46% from 47%, adjusted EBITDA margin eased to 48% from 49%, and sales and marketing expense grew about 17%, well ahead of revenue, as the company invests in its partner-first strategy. Overall net dollar retention was unchanged at 105%, and direct revenue declined 2% as channel partners rose to 55% of revenue. Helpful offsets included 243 customers spending at least $500,000 annually, up 15%, and operating cash flow of $101.8 million, up 13%. Investors chose to weight the deceleration more heavily than the cash generation.
Analyst Reaction
Research commentary published before Tuesday's open centered on billings visibility rather than the headline beat, with several analysts noting that the full-year raise did not come with a faster growth trajectory. One long-standing bear reiterated a Sell rating with a $140 price target, well below the current price. The broader consensus remains Hold with an average target near $189, meaning the stock has little valuation cushion if growth expectations keep drifting lower.
Market Context and Trading Activity
The decline was company-specific rather than sector-driven. Cybersecurity peers were modestly lower, with PANW down about 1.7%, CRWD down about 2.0%, and smaller peer TENB down about 4.8%, while the main cybersecurity exchange-traded funds slipped less than 1%. The S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, and Russell 2000 were each lower by less than 1%, so the broader tape explains only a fraction of the move.
Volume was heavy. Roughly 98,000 shares changed hands in the first 15 minutes, close to 30% of the stock's typical full session turnover of about 350,000 shares. Technically, the gap lower pushed shares back below their 50-day moving average near $191 and left them about 21% under the October 29 closing high of $230.29, with the $165-$175 area acting as the first support zone that has repeatedly attracted buyers since September.
News Significance Score
The scale runs from 0, meaning no meaningful news and a move that is normal for the stock, to 100, meaning transformative news and an extreme, rare price move. Qualys earns 58 out of 100.
The verified news was substantive but not transformative: a modest revenue beat, an in-line-to-better fourth quarter, and guidance that raised full-year numbers while confirming slower billings growth. The price move was genuinely unusual, about 3.2 times the stock's typical daily swing of roughly 3.1% over the past three months, and larger than all but two of the last 60 sessions. Strong news and an outsized, rare reaction combine into the mid-fifties score.
What Comes Next for QLYS
Attention shifts to fourth-quarter execution. Investors will weigh whether fourth-quarter billings can clear the roughly 8% base case, whether the federal pipeline that lifted the third quarter repeats, and whether new products such as TruRisk Eliminate 2.0, InstaScan, and the QFlex pricing model convert pipeline into near-term spending. Fourth-quarter results, expected in February, are the next scheduled catalyst, along with updates on net dollar retention, large-customer counts, and the pace of share repurchases. Risks include lumpy government deal timing, elongated sales cycles, pricing competition from platform consolidators, and the possibility that AI-driven demand remains pipeline-building rather than revenue-generating for several more quarters.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron offers hundreds of AI trading bots covering thousands of tickers, but only the strongest performers under current market conditions earn a place in its curated Trending AI Robots section. Bots vary widely by strategy, timeframe, performance metrics, and traded symbols, so the lineup shifts as market conditions change. Reviewing the trending roster can help traders see which automated approaches are working now and how they might complement their own research.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Aroon Indicator for QLYS shows an upward move is likely
QLYS's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on November 03, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 211 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 163 of the 211 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +1.58% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where QLYS advanced for three days, in 221 of 330 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
QLYS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for QLYS moved out of overbought territory on October 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 16 of the 30 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 53%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on QLYS as a result. In 54 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for QLYS turned negative on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 39 of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 74%.
QLYS moved below its 50-day moving average on November 10, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where QLYS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. QLYS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. QLYS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.716) is normal, around the industry mean (16.360). P/E Ratio (32.829) is within average values for comparable stocks, (53.310). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.983) is also within normal values, averaging (3.696). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.434) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (9.320) is also within normal values, averaging (104.492).
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a provider of cloud security and compliance solutions
Industry ComputerCommunications
Advertisement