GET DAILY SIGNALSWhy Is TFI International (TFII) Stock Down -11.81% Today?
Key Takeaways
- TFII shares plunged 11.81% on Friday, falling $13.29 to $99.25 from a prior close of $112.54.
- The primary catalyst was a third-quarter earnings miss, with adjusted EPS of $1.67 landing below the $1.75 consensus.
- Guidance compounded the selloff: the company projected Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.30–$1.40, far below the $1.67 analysts had expected.
- A broader freight and logistics selloff, fueled by AI-disruption fears and a U.S. Department of Transportation ruling on commercial driver licensing, amplified the decline.
- Traders are now watching segment operating-ratio trends, LTL repricing progress, and any stabilization across freight peers.
- For deeper insight into this stock's valuation and outlook, explore Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages.
- Discover how AI-powered strategies are navigating this volatility on the Trending AI Robots page.
Opening Summary
TFI International Inc. (TFII), a North American transportation and logistics leader operating through Less-Than-Truckload, Truckload, Package and Courier, and Logistics segments, saw its shares tumble sharply in Friday's session. The stock dropped 11.81%, or $13.29, to $99.25, down from the prior session's close of $112.54. The move marked the company's first full trading day since it reported third-quarter results after Thursday's close, and the market reaction was decisively negative, driven by an earnings miss and — more importantly — disappointing forward guidance.
Earnings Miss and Weak Fourth-Quarter Guidance
The core driver of the decline was the company's third-quarter report. TFII posted non-GAAP earnings of $1.67 per share, missing the consensus estimate of roughly $1.75, while revenue of approximately $2.23 billion came in broadly in line with expectations and rose 13.2% year over year. The modest earnings shortfall alone, however, was not enough to explain the magnitude of the selloff.
What rattled investors was the outlook. Management guided fourth-quarter adjusted diluted EPS to a range of $1.30 to $1.40, well below the $1.67 Wall Street had modeled. The guidance, framed as assuming no significant positive or negative change in the operating environment, signaled a meaningful sequential step-down in profitability and raised fresh questions about the pace of the company's freight-cycle recovery.
Sector-Wide Freight and Logistics Selloff
The pressure on TFII was not occurring in isolation. Freight and logistics names were under broad selling pressure amid renewed investor anxiety that artificial-intelligence platforms could disrupt traditional transportation intermediaries and freight brokerage models. Heavyweight peers such as C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) and RXO (RXO) also posted steep declines during the session, as money rotated out of the sector.
Adding to the sector's headwinds, traders weighed the potential implications of a U.S. Department of Transportation ruling restricting commercial truck and bus licenses for certain foreign drivers, which some market participants fear could tighten capacity and raise operating costs. The combination of company-specific guidance concerns and sector-level sentiment created a powerful downward pull on the stock.
Market Context and Trading Activity
Trading activity was heavy relative to recent sessions, with volume running well above the stock's three-month average as investors digested the earnings release and guidance revision. The decline pushed TFII decisively below key technical levels, including its 200-day moving average, and toward the lower end of its recent trading range. The move diverged from a broader market that was only modestly lower, underscoring that the selloff was driven largely by stock- and sector-specific factors rather than broad index weakness.
What Comes Next for TFII
Looking ahead, investors will focus on whether the freight environment stabilizes and whether the company's segment-level operating ratios — particularly in Truckload and the U.S. Less-Than-Truckload business — improve in line with management's targets. The company has flagged LTL repricing efforts and an expected year-over-year improvement in the Truckload operating ratio as key proof points. Risks include persistent softness in freight demand, further pricing pressure, and any deterioration in the broader macroeconomic backdrop. The fourth-quarter guidance reset suggests the market will be closely scrutinizing upcoming freight data releases and peer earnings for confirmation of a bottoming cycle.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
TFII's RSI Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for TFII moved out of oversold territory on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 26 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 20 of the 26 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 47 of 65 cases where TFII's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TFII just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TFII's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +3.23% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TFII advanced for three days, in 193 of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
TFII may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TFII as a result. In 73 of 107 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
The 50-day moving average for TFII moved below the 200-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TFII declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator for TFII entered a downward trend on October 29, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. TFII’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 71 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.382) is normal, around the industry mean (2.868). P/E Ratio (27.583) is within average values for comparable stocks, (43.761). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.180) is also within normal values, averaging (12.936). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.300) is also within normal values, averaging (2.068).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TFII’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
a provider of freight transportation and logistics services
Industry Trucking
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