GET DAILY SIGNALSXponential Fitness (XPOF) Delivers Q3 Revenue of $62.3 Million with -21% Year-over-Year Decline
Key Takeaways
- Xponential Fitness reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $62.3 million, down 21% year over year and slightly below consensus estimates.
- Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.04, a meaningful miss versus the roughly $0.12–$0.15 analysts had expected.
- Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) declined 27% year over year to $24.3 million.
- North America same-store sales fell 7.5%, and average unit volume (AUV), a measure of per-studio revenue, slipped to $634,000.
- Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $250–$260 million while narrowing its adjusted EBITDA outlook to $91–$94 million.
- The company also narrowed its 2026 net new studio opening target to 124–130, down from a prior outlook of roughly 150.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Xponential Fitness, a leading franchisor of boutique health-and-wellness brands including Club Pilates, StretchLab, and Pure Barre, entered this report at a pivotal moment. The company has been navigating a streamlined portfolio after divesting several brands in 2025, while also working through a strategic alternatives review led by its independent directors. With same-store sales under pressure and merchandise operations disrupted by an outsourced logistics transition, investors were watching closely for evidence that management's marketing, technology, and brand initiatives were beginning to stabilize the business. This quarter's results offer a direct read on whether those efforts are gaining traction and whether franchisee economics are improving enough to support future studio growth. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Reported Results
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, Xponential Fitness reported total revenue of $62.3 million, a 21% decline from $78.8 million in the prior-year period and slightly below Wall Street consensus of approximately $63 million. The decline was driven primarily by lower franchise revenue, reduced equipment installations, and a sharp drop in merchandise revenue following the shift to an outsourced retail model.
On a GAAP basis, the company swung to net income of $4.9 million, or $0.10 per basic share, compared with a net loss of $6.7 million, or $0.18 per share, a year earlier. On an adjusted basis, net income was $2.2 million, or $0.04 per share, down sharply from $19.3 million, or $0.36 per share, in the prior-year quarter and below analyst expectations. Adjusted EBITDA fell 27% to $24.3 million.
Operating metrics were similarly soft. North America system-wide sales declined 2% to $424.3 million, while same-store sales fell 7.5% on a pro forma basis, and North America AUV decreased to $634,000 from $668,000. The company ended the quarter with 3,185 open studios globally.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Xponential Fitness shares fell following the report, with the stock dropping roughly 6% in immediate after-hours trading as investors digested the revenue miss, the sharp decline in adjusted EPS, and weaker same-store sales. Sentiment heading into the quarter had been cautious given persistent pressures on studio-level performance and the ongoing merchandise transition. The results reinforced those concerns, while the strategic alternatives review continued to add a layer of uncertainty around the company's direction. The narrowing of full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance and a lower net studio opening target further weighed on the outlook, even as management pointed to early signs of progress in lead generation and member conversion initiatives.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, investors will be focused on whether same-store sales trends can stabilize as the company's new marketing and technology initiatives mature. Management highlighted a revamped Club Pilates website and AI-driven search optimization that have already lifted lead form submissions and first-class appointment conversion, but translating those early gains into sustained membership growth remains the central challenge.
Unit economics will also be a key watch item. The company has lowered its 2026 net new studio opening target to 124–130, a more disciplined pace intended to protect franchisee profitability. International expansion, led by Club Pilates, remains a longer-term growth lever, with Australia, Spain, France, and Portugal reaching new milestones during the quarter.
Finally, the strategic alternatives review remains an important catalyst. The board is exploring options that could include a sale, merger, or other transaction, and any update on that process could have a significant impact on the stock. Combined with elevated debt levels and a continued focus on resolving legacy legal matters, these factors make the path to improved cash flow and sustainable growth the central storyline for Xponential Fitness in the quarters ahead.
Exploring Tickeron AI Tools for My Research
In my own work, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener when I want to quickly compare a company’s metrics against peers or spot patterns across the sector. It lets me apply technical and fundamental filters in one place, which helps me stay disciplined when evaluating situations like this earnings release. The tool has become a regular part of how I build context around individual reports without adding extra time to the process.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
XPOF saw its Stochastic Oscillator peaks and leaves the overbought zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for XPOF moved out of overbought territory on November 04, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock and investors may want to consider selling or taking a defensive position. A.I.dvisor looked at 61 similar instances where the indicator exited the overbought zone. In 52 of the 61 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for XPOF crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XPOF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where XPOF's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 34 of 43 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XPOF as a result. In 66 of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XPOF just turned positive on November 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where XPOF's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
XPOF moved above its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +27.81% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XPOF advanced for three days, in 233 of 287 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 126 of 177 cases where XPOF Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 71%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 10 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-0.595) is normal, around the industry mean (1.792). P/E Ratio (-3.061) is within average values for comparable stocks, (1.385). XPOF's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.411). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.489) is also within normal values, averaging (4.604).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. XPOF’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. XPOF’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock worse than average.
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