GET DAILY SIGNALSZillow Group (Z) Reports +7% Revenue Growth in Q3 Despite Market Pressures
Key Takeaways
- Total revenue rose 7% year over year to $724 million, coming in below the roughly $755 million that analysts had forecast.
- Adjusted EBITDA reached $182 million, a 25% margin, landing within the company's guidance range.
- GAAP net loss was $158 million, or $0.70 per share, driven largely by a $165 million Zillow Offers securities class action settlement, net of expected insurance recoveries.
- Adjusted (non-GAAP) earnings per share came in at $0.55, up from $0.44 in the same quarter a year earlier.
- Mortgages revenue climbed 32% to $70 million as purchase loan originations jumped 55% to $2 billion, while Rentals revenue grew 26% to $220 million.
- Residential revenue slipped 4% to $419 million, reflecting a housing market pressured by higher-than-expected mortgage rates.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Zillow Group's third-quarter report offers a timely read on the U.S. housing market at a difficult moment. With mortgage rates running above expectations and transaction volumes under pressure, investors are watching closely whether the company's diversified model — spanning residential listings, rentals, and mortgages — can keep growing even as the broader real estate sector contracts. Zillow Group has spent years shifting from its discontinued home-flipping business toward a marketplace built on traffic, partner revenue, and financing. This quarter's results help clarify whether that strategy can sustain revenue growth and profitability in a slowing market, making it a key signal for both Zillow Group shareholders and those tracking housing-sensitive stocks more broadly.
Reported Results
Zillow Group reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $724 million, a 7% increase from $676 million a year earlier, though below the consensus estimate near $755 million. Growth was led by the Mortgages segment, where revenue rose 32% to $70 million, supported by a 55% jump in purchase loan originations to $2 billion. Rentals revenue grew 26% to $220 million, while Residential revenue declined 4% to $419 million and For Sale revenue was roughly flat at $489 million.
On the bottom line, Zillow Group posted a GAAP net loss of $158 million, or $0.70 per diluted share, compared with a small profit of $0.04 per share in the prior-year quarter. The loss was heavily influenced by a $165 million Zillow Offers securities class action settlement, net of expected insurance recoveries. Excluding that item and other non-recurring costs, adjusted net income was $124 million, with diluted adjusted EPS of $0.55, up from $0.44 a year ago but slightly below the consensus estimate near $0.58. Adjusted EBITDA was $182 million, a 25% margin, within the company's outlook range. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Investor reaction to Zillow Group's report was shaped by two competing narratives: solid adjusted profitability and a revenue figure that fell short of expectations. The 7% revenue growth, while respectable, undershot the consensus near $755 million, and adjusted EPS of $0.55 came in slightly below estimates near $0.58. The headline GAAP loss of $0.70 per share — driven by the class action settlement — added noise for investors focused on reported results. Sentiment was further tempered by declining engagement metrics, with average monthly unique visitors down 3% year over year to 215 million and total visits down 5% to 2.3 billion, even as Zillow Group retained a dominant 77% share of average monthly unique visitors in the real estate category, according to Comscore.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, investors will focus on how Zillow Group navigates a housing market that remains constrained by elevated mortgage rates and soft transaction volumes. Management's fourth-quarter and full-year outlook, detailed in the shareholder letter, will be a key reference point for gauging whether revenue growth can accelerate or merely hold steady.
One area to watch is the Mortgages business. Purchase loan originations surged 55%, suggesting Zillow Group is gaining traction in financing even as overall industry purchase-mortgage origination fell an estimated 4% year over year. Sustaining that momentum could help offset softness in the core residential marketplace. From what I see, this is important because it shows the company finding pockets of strength.
Engagement trends also matter. While Zillow Group still commands a dominant share of real estate traffic, the decline in unique users and visits signals that demand remains subdued. Any recovery in housing activity — driven by a potential decline in mortgage rates or improved affordability — could reverse this trend and support partner and advertising revenue.
Finally, investors should monitor cost discipline and litigation-related items. Management continues to exclude certain FTC matter litigation costs and the class action settlement from adjusted metrics, so clarity on ongoing legal expenses and their impact on reported profitability will be important for interpreting future results. I’m watching this closely as the company moves into the next quarter.
Using AI Tools for Deeper Analysis
When evaluating results like these from Zillow Group, I often rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter peers and spot relevant patterns across the real estate sector. It streamlines the process of comparing fundamentals and technical signals, helping me build a more informed view without spending hours on manual checks.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Z in -5.67% downward trend, sliding for three consecutive days on October 28, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where Z declined for three days, in 266 of 328 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for Z moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 21 of the 27 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 78%.
Z broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 45 of 63 cases where Z's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on Z as a result. In 62 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for Z just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where Z's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Z moved above its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for Z crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 15 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Following a +12.48% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where Z advanced for three days, in 223 of 303 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 146 of 199 cases where Z Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 73%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 37 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. Z’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.770) is normal, around the industry mean (1.069). P/E Ratio (147.391) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-42.791). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.932) is also within normal values, averaging (17.274). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.985) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.720) is also within normal values, averaging (71.888).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. Z’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
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a real estate app
Industry InternetSoftwareServices
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