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ADM vs BG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) vs. Bunge Global (BG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ADM has rallied sharply over the past year on a constructive biofuels environment, stronger oilseed crushing margins, and a recovering Nutrition segment, while BG has gained from scale and synergy benefits following its Viterra integration.
- Both companies are leveraged to agricultural commodity cycles, but ADM carries a larger market capitalization and a broader specialty-ingredients footprint, whereas BG skews more heavily toward global oilseed processing and grain merchandising.
- ADM has raised its earnings outlook and extended share repurchases, but it still faces governance scrutiny tied to an ongoing accounting investigation and prior CFO litigation.
- BG raised its full-year earnings guidance and lifted its Viterra synergy target, supported by a consensus "Buy" rating and a meaningful premium to its current share price in average analyst targets.
- Relative valuation differs: BG trades at a lower forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, while ADM commands a premium that reflects its higher-margin diversification.
- For more detail on each company's latest headlines and intraday price action, explore the ADM Major News and ADM Today's Price Move pages, as well as the BG Major News and BG Today's Price Move pages.
- Investors can also review automated strategies by exploring Trending AI Robots for data-driven market insights.
Introduction
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) and Bunge Global SA (BG) are two of the world's largest agricultural commodity processors and merchandisers, connecting farmers to global food, feed, and fuel markets. Both sit at the center of shifting dynamics in oilseed crushing, biofuels policy, and international trade, making them natural counterparts for a head-to-head stock comparison. This comparison is relevant to investors seeking exposure to the agricultural cycle, traders watching relative momentum, and readers evaluating how two similarly positioned agribusinesses diverge in strategy, valuation, and risk. The analysis below focuses on recent market activity and observable fundamentals rather than short-term price noise.
ADM Overview and Recent Performance
Headquartered in Chicago, ADM operates across Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions, and Nutrition. In recent quarters, the company has benefited from improved U.S. biofuels policy clarity, stronger soybean crushing margins, and elevated ethanol economics, which supported a significant year-to-date advance in its share price. Management has raised its earnings outlook and highlighted a roughly $250 million expected net benefit from the 45Z clean-fuel production credit. The Nutrition segment has also shown signs of recovery, led by flavors and improvements at the Decatur East facility.
These tailwinds are partly offset by governance overhang. ADM continues to face scrutiny related to an internal accounting investigation and former CFO litigation, and a shareholder has publicly pressed the CEO to resign. The company has extended its share repurchase program and maintained a long dividend-growth record, reinforcing shareholder returns even as commodity-cycle pressures and cost-control efforts continue.
BG Overview and Recent Performance
Bunge Global SA (BG), a Swiss-incorporated agribusiness with operational headquarters in St. Louis, completed its acquisition of Viterra in mid-2025, materially expanding its grain origination and oilseed processing footprint. In recent periods, BG has raised its full-year adjusted earnings guidance and increased its Viterra cost-synergy target to roughly $350 million, with management indicating integration progress ahead of plan. Soybean and softseed processing results have strengthened, though grain merchandising has remained uneven.
Analyst sentiment is notably constructive, with a consensus "Buy" rating and an average price target well above the recent share price. BG also offers a competitive dividend yield and a lower forward P/E multiple than ADM. The primary trade-offs are integration execution risk, weaker cash conversion in some periods, and below-benchmark returns on invested capital, which keep the investment case balanced despite a favorable demand backdrop in oilseeds and biofuels.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
While both companies process oilseeds and trade grains, their business-model emphasis differs. ADM derives a larger share of value from higher-margin specialty ingredients, flavors, and nutrition solutions, adding diversification beyond the commodity cycle. BG is more concentrated in soybean and softseed processing, refining, and grain merchandising, with the Viterra deal amplifying its scale in Argentina, Canada, and Europe.
On growth drivers, ADM's catalysts center on biofuels policy, crushing margins, and a Nutrition recovery, while BG's center on Viterra synergies, expanded processing capacity, and a lower valuation. In terms of momentum, ADM has posted a larger recent run-up, whereas BG carries stronger sell-side conviction and a bigger gap between its price and average analyst targets. Risk profiles also contrast: ADM faces governance and accounting-related overhang, while BG faces integration execution, cash-conversion, and merchandising volatility. Sector exposure is similar, but ADM's broader portfolio may smooth cyclicality more effectively than BG's heavier commodity tilt.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, catalyst visibility, valuation, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward BG in the current environment. BG combines a lower forward valuation, a supportive analyst consensus, rising synergy-driven earnings expectations, and improving oilseed processing fundamentals. ADM's momentum and diversification are meaningful strengths, but governance overhang and a richer valuation introduce comparatively more uncertainty. This view reflects a probabilistic, signal-based assessment rather than a definitive forecast, and relative positioning could shift as new earnings data and policy developments emerge.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ADM is a Hold and BG is a Buy.
ADM in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026
The 10-day moving average for ADM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 26, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ADM as a result. In 55 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ADM turned negative on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 63%.
ADM moved below its 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
The Aroon Indicator for ADM entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for ADM's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.98% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADM advanced for three days, in 199 of 330 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ADM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 66 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.549) is normal, around the industry mean (2.288). P/E Ratio (20.702) is within average values for comparable stocks, (4.947). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.993) is also within normal values, averaging (2.441). Dividend Yield (0.027) settles around the average of (0.038) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.502) is also within normal values, averaging (2.353).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ADM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
BG's RSI Indicator remains in oversold zone for 3 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 10 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.97% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BG advanced for three days, in 213 of 312 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
BG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 26, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BG as a result. In 61 of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BG turned negative on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
The Aroon Indicator for BG entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 44 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.135) is normal, around the industry mean (2.295). P/E Ratio (20.219) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.505). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.020) is also within normal values, averaging (2.441). Dividend Yield (0.031) settles around the average of (0.038) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.251) is also within normal values, averaging (2.353).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
ADM | BG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 79 | 71 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 66 Overvalued | 44 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 69 | 68 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 77 | 77 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 62 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 72 | 5 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BG's Valuation (44) in the Agricultural Commodities Or Milling industry is in the same range as ADM (66). This means that BG’s stock grew similarly to ADM’s over the last 12 months.
BG's Profit vs Risk Rating (68) in the Agricultural Commodities Or Milling industry is in the same range as ADM (69). This means that BG’s stock grew similarly to ADM’s over the last 12 months.
BG's SMR Rating (77) in the Agricultural Commodities Or Milling industry is in the same range as ADM (77). This means that BG’s stock grew similarly to ADM’s over the last 12 months.
ADM's Price Growth Rating (49) in the Agricultural Commodities Or Milling industry is in the same range as BG (62). This means that ADM’s stock grew similarly to BG’s over the last 12 months.
BG's P/E Growth Rating (5) in the Agricultural Commodities Or Milling industry is significantly better than the same rating for ADM (72). This means that BG’s stock grew significantly faster than ADM’s over the last 12 months.
| ADM | BG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 1 day ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 1 day ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 1 day ago 57% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 60% | 12 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 61% | 6 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 1 day ago 50% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ADM’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while BG’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ADM’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- BG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ADM’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while BG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ADM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- BG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ADM (@Agricultural Commodities/Milling) experienced а -4.10% price change this week, while BG (@Agricultural Commodities/Milling) price change was -6.55% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Agricultural Commodities/Milling industry was -1.66%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.57%, and the average quarterly price growth was -16.28%.
Reported Earning Dates
ADM is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
BG is expected to report earnings on Feb 10, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Agricultural Commodities/Milling (-1.66% weekly)The Agricultural Commodities/Milling industry includes companies that are involved in farming activities, such as crop production, livestock management and animal feed, for commercial purposes. The industry includes a wide range of operations from growing corn, to grain and oilseed processing to the operation of flour mills. Changes in consumer tastes is one of the critical factors influencing what products are grown and raised in this industry. Potential risks to the business include climate change and fluctuations in global prices of agricultural products. Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Elanco Animal Health, Inc., Bunge Limited and Canopy Growth Corporation are some of the biggest U.S. companies operating in this industry.
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ADM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ADM has been closely correlated with BG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ADM jumps, then BG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ADM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADM | 100% | -6.82% | ||
| BG - ADM | 74% Closely correlated | +0.53% | ||
| AGRO - ADM | 28% Poorly correlated | -0.52% | ||
| AFRI - ADM | 18% Poorly correlated | +0.16% | ||
| SDOT - ADM | 18% Poorly correlated | +2.96% | ||
| TSN - ADM | 14% Poorly correlated | -0.21% | ||
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