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ADP vs TYL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Automatic Data Processing (ADP) vs. Tyler Technologies (TYL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both ADP and TYL have posted strong year-to-date (YTD) gains of approximately 22% and 24%, respectively, outpacing the S&P 500's 4.6% return.
- ADP offers a more attractive valuation with a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.07 compared to TYL's 47.61.
- Recent analyst sentiment highlights ADP's underestimated growth potential in human capital management (HCM), while TYL shows contract wins amid share price weakness.
- Both stocks face earnings reports on April 29, with ADP projected for stronger EPS growth.
- Tickeron's comparison tool indicates ADP as the preferable long-term pick over TYL.
Introduction
ADP and TYL represent distinct segments within business services and technology: ADP dominates payroll and HR solutions, while TYL specializes in public sector software. This comparison is relevant for investors seeking exposure to stable enterprise services versus growth-oriented government tech amid recent market volatility. Traders monitoring relative performance may find insights into valuation gaps, momentum shifts, and sector-specific catalysts useful for portfolio positioning in the current environment.
ADP Overview and Recent Performance
Automatic Data Processing (ADP), a leader in cloud-based payroll, HR, and HCM solutions, serves millions of clients globally with recurring revenue streams. In recent market activity, the stock has demonstrated resilience, achieving a YTD return of 22% and a one-year gain of 30.08%, surpassing the S&P 500. Trading near $198.70 with a market cap of $80 billion, it boasts a trailing P/E of 19.07 and forward P/E of 16.45, reflecting efficient earnings per share (EPS) of $10.42 (TTM). Sentiment has been bolstered by analysts like Guggenheim citing overlooked growth in enterprise HCM products and HR hiring upticks, ahead of Q3 earnings on April 29. Price behavior shows stability within a 52-week range of $188-$330, influenced by broader economic signals on employment.
TYL Overview and Recent Performance
Tyler Technologies (TYL) develops integrated software for local governments, courts, and public safety agencies, capitalizing on digital transformation needs. Recent performance includes a YTD rise of 24% and one-year return of 34.24%, edging out the S&P 500, though shares have faced pressure post-Q4 earnings miss. At around $343.74 with a $14.8 billion market cap, its trailing P/E stands at 47.61 and forward at 27.25, supported by TTM EPS of $7.22. Key developments include new contracts like Michigan implementations and an Investor Day announcement, offsetting recent valuation concerns amid a 52-week range of $284-$621. Upcoming Q1 earnings on April 29 may drive sentiment shifts.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ADP’s business model emphasizes stable, subscription-based services for private enterprises, contrasting TYL’s reliance on long-term government contracts vulnerable to budget cycles. Growth drivers differ: ADP benefits from HCM expansion and hiring trends, while TYL leverages public sector modernization. Recent momentum favors TYL on one-year returns (34% vs. 30%), but ADP exhibits greater stability with a tighter 52-week range and lower volatility. Risk factors include economic sensitivity for ADP (employment data) versus procurement delays for TYL. Sector exposure positions ADP in industrials/services and TYL in software/tech, with market sentiment leaning toward ADP’s value amid premium pricing trade-offs for TYL.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI analysis currently favors ADP over TYL, citing superior long-term trend consistency, attractive valuation metrics, and stable catalysts like HCM growth. While TYL offers higher recent momentum, its elevated P/E and post-earnings volatility introduce greater uncertainty. This positioning suggests ADP may exhibit stronger relative performance probabilities in the near term, subject to earnings outcomes and market dynamics.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ADP is a StrongBuy and TYL is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ADP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileTYL’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- ADP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TYL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ADP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TYL’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ADP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TYL’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ADP (@Packaged Software) experienced а -3.86% price change this week, while TYL (@Packaged Software) price change was -5.03% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was -0.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.39%, and the average quarterly price growth was +12.11%.
Reported Earning Dates
ADP is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
TYL is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Packaged Software (-0.63% weekly)Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
| ADP | TYL | ADP / TYL | |
| Capitalization | 85.8B | 11.3B | 759% |
| EBITDA | 6.7B | 558M | 1,201% |
| Gain YTD | -15.245 | -39.361 | 39% |
| P/E Ratio | 20.02 | 38.02 | 53% |
| Revenue | 21.6B | 2.38B | 907% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 346M | - |
| Total Debt | 4.3B | 48M | 8,948% |
ADP | TYL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 58 | 64 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 9 Undervalued | 75 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 79 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 16 | 76 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 65 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 86 | 94 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ADP's Valuation (9) in the Data Processing Services industry is significantly better than the same rating for TYL (75). This means that ADP’s stock grew significantly faster than TYL’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's Profit vs Risk Rating (79) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as TYL (100). This means that ADP’s stock grew similarly to TYL’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's SMR Rating (16) in the Data Processing Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TYL (76). This means that ADP’s stock grew somewhat faster than TYL’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's Price Growth Rating (60) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as TYL (65). This means that ADP’s stock grew similarly to TYL’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's P/E Growth Rating (86) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as TYL (94). This means that ADP’s stock grew similarly to TYL’s over the last 12 months.
| ADP | TYL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 34% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 43% | 2 days ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 52% | 19 days ago 54% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 37% | 2 days ago 67% |
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TYL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TYL has been loosely correlated with ADP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 60% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TYL jumps, then ADP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TYL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TYL | 100% | -1.31% | ||
| ADP - TYL | 60% Loosely correlated | -1.74% | ||
| COIN - TYL | 59% Loosely correlated | +0.97% | ||
| MANH - TYL | 58% Loosely correlated | -2.67% | ||
| CLSK - TYL | 58% Loosely correlated | +1.31% | ||
| PCTY - TYL | 56% Loosely correlated | -1.61% | ||
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