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AEM vs CGAU
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) vs. Centerra Gold (CGAU) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AEM, a large-cap gold producer with a market capitalization exceeding $100 billion, offers stability and strong free cash flow generation amid recent gold price volatility.
- CGAU, a smaller mid-cap player with about $3.7 billion market cap, has delivered explosive recent performance, surging over 200% in the past year, driven by production beats and reserve growth.
- Both stocks benefit from elevated gold prices, but CGAU trades at a lower trailing PE ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) of 6.63 versus AEM's 22.62, suggesting relative value.
- AEM demonstrates superior balance sheet strength with low debt/equity (1.3%) and high ROE (return on equity) of 19.58%, while CGAU boasts even higher ROE at 31.43%.
- Recent market activity shows mixed momentum: AEM up 18% YTD with lower beta (volatility measure) of 0.70, contrasting CGAU's higher-risk, higher-reward profile.
- Investor sentiment remains positive for both, fueled by strong 2025 results and upcoming Q1 earnings, in a sector buoyed by gold's safe-haven appeal.
Introduction
This AEM vs. CGAU stock comparison examines two prominent gold mining companies amid fluctuating precious metals markets. Both operate in the gold sector, where recent geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures have driven gold prices higher, influencing producer valuations. Long-term investors seeking diversified exposure to gold production, or short-term traders capitalizing on sector momentum, will find value in contrasting their scale, financial health, and recent trajectories. This analysis highlights relative performance and key metrics to inform market positioning decisions.
AEM Overview and Recent Performance
AEM (Agnico Eagle Mines Limited) is a leading gold producer with operations across Canada, Australia, Finland, and Mexico, focusing on exploration, development, and precious metals production including gold, silver, copper, and zinc. In recent quarters, the company reported record quarterly and annual free cash flow for 2025, achieving production guidance while increasing dividends by 12.5%. Exploration updates showed mineral reserves up 2% to 55.4 million ounces, with indicated resources rising 10%.
Stock performance in recent market activity has been resilient yet volatile, with shares trading around $200, up 18% year-to-date and 69% over the past year, though facing pullbacks amid gold price swings and profit-taking. Sentiment has been supported by strategic acquisitions in Finland's Central Lapstone Greenstone Belt and anticipation for Q1 earnings, where EPS (earnings per share) is expected to grow significantly. Broader factors like high profit margins (37%) and low leverage have bolstered investor confidence despite sector-wide pressures.
CGAU Overview and Recent Performance
CGAU (Centerra Gold Inc.) is a gold and copper producer with key assets including the Mount Milligan mine in Canada, emphasizing self-funded growth. For full-year 2025, it surpassed production guidance with over 275,000 ounces of gold and 50 million pounds of copper, while year-end reserves grew 58% for gold and 49% for copper. The company maintained a robust outlook for 2026 with gold production guidance of 250,000-280,000 ounces.
Recent weeks have seen strong momentum, with shares delivering over 200% gains in the past year and recent monthly returns around 11%, trading near $17 amid analyst price target upgrades from firms like BofA and Scotiabank. Positive sentiment stems from operational efficiencies, low debt (0.91% debt/equity), and high ROE (31%), though rising costs pose some margin pressure ahead of Q1 results.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
In business models, AEM emphasizes large-scale, low-cost production across multiple jurisdictions for geographic diversification, while CGAU focuses on fewer assets with copper byproducts enhancing revenue streams. Growth drivers differ: AEM's steady reserve expansion and M&A (mergers and acquisitions) contrast CGAU's aggressive reserve growth and self-funded projects.
Recent momentum favors CGAU's outsized returns versus AEM's steadier gains, though AEM's lower beta signals reduced risk. Valuation trade-offs show CGAU's cheaper multiples (PE 6.63 trailing) appealing to value seekers, against AEM's premium for quality (profit margin 37%). Sector exposure is pure gold for both, but CGAU's copper adds diversification. Risk factors include commodity volatility for AEM and operational costs for CGAU; market sentiment tilts positive on both due to strong balance sheets amid gold's rally.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently leans toward CGAU for its superior recent momentum, attractive valuation, and reserve expansion catalysts, positioning it strongly in a high-gold-price environment. However, AEM appeals for trend consistency and stability, with higher market cap and free cash flow providing downside protection. The edge depends on risk tolerance—higher probability of outperformance for CGAU in bullish gold scenarios, balanced by AEM's reliability.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AEM is a Hold and CGAU is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AEM’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileCGAU’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AEM’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- CGAU’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AEM’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CGAU’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AEM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- CGAU’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AEM (@Precious Metals) experienced а -0.62% price change this week, while CGAU (@Precious Metals) price change was +5.70% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was +1.32%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -18.06%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.20%.
Reported Earning Dates
AEM is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
CGAU is expected to report earnings on Aug 12, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (+1.32% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
| AEM | CGAU | AEM / CGAU | |
| Capitalization | 81.4B | 3.21B | 2,540% |
| EBITDA | 9.74B | 936M | 1,041% |
| Gain YTD | -3.656 | 12.317 | -30% |
| P/E Ratio | 15.31 | 5.21 | 294% |
| Revenue | 13.5B | 1.57B | 860% |
| Total Cash | 3.12B | 555M | 563% |
| Total Debt | 319M | 43.7M | 730% |
AEM | CGAU | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 62 | 10 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 93 Overvalued | 16 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 49 | 37 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 43 | 30 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 90 | 99 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CGAU's Valuation (16) in the null industry is significantly better than the same rating for AEM (93). This means that CGAU’s stock grew significantly faster than AEM’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's Profit vs Risk Rating (37) in the null industry is in the same range as AEM (49). This means that CGAU’s stock grew similarly to AEM’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's SMR Rating (30) in the null industry is in the same range as AEM (43). This means that CGAU’s stock grew similarly to AEM’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's Price Growth Rating (47) in the null industry is in the same range as AEM (62). This means that CGAU’s stock grew similarly to AEM’s over the last 12 months.
AEM's P/E Growth Rating (90) in the null industry is in the same range as CGAU (99). This means that AEM’s stock grew similarly to CGAU’s over the last 12 months.
| AEM | CGAU | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 88% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 78% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 77% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 76% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 70% | 5 days ago 70% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 78% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 68% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| CRWG | 33.66 | 2.94 | +9.57% |
| Leverage Shares 2X Long CRWV Daily ETF | |||
| AVXC | 83.37 | 0.48 | +0.58% |
| Avantis Emerging Markets Ex-Chn Eq ETF | |||
| KNG | 50.15 | 0.28 | +0.56% |
| FT Cboe Vest S&P 500® Dv Ast Tgt Inc ETF | |||
| SPXN | 81.59 | 0.29 | +0.36% |
| ProShares S&P 500® ex-Financials | |||
| VDI | 35.42 | N/A | N/A |
| Virtus International Dividend ETF | |||
CGAU and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CGAU has been closely correlated with AEM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CGAU jumps, then AEM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CGAU | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGAU | 100% | +3.33% | ||
| AEM - CGAU | 88% Closely correlated | +3.09% | ||
| IAG - CGAU | 88% Closely correlated | +3.16% | ||
| KGC - CGAU | 87% Closely correlated | +2.90% | ||
| WPM - CGAU | 86% Closely correlated | +3.05% | ||
| AGI - CGAU | 85% Closely correlated | +2.06% | ||
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