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AGI vs PAAS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Alamos Gold (AGI) vs. Pan American Silver (PAAS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Alamos Gold (AGI) is a Canadian intermediate gold producer, while Pan American Silver (PAAS) is a larger, diversified precious-metals miner centered on silver with meaningful gold by-product output.
- Both stocks surged into early 2026 and then pulled back sharply from their 52-week highs, leaving each trading well below peak levels in recent weeks.
- AGI stands out for superior profitability, with roughly a 52% profit margin and about 27% return on equity, alongside very low debt.
- PAAS offers greater scale, broader geographic and metal diversification, a higher dividend yield, and a lower forward valuation.
- The relative performance gap has narrowed: PAAS retains a positive one-year return, while AGI has slipped into negative territory on a one-year basis.
Introduction
Investors tracking precious-metals equities often weigh a pure gold producer against a diversified silver-and-gold miner to balance leverage to metal prices against operational breadth. This stock comparison examines AGI (Alamos Gold Inc.) and PAAS (Pan American Silver Corp.), two Canadian-listed miners with different profiles but shared sensitivity to the same macro forces. Both names delivered exceptional multi-year gains before encountering a correction in recent months, making their relative performance and market positioning especially relevant now. Traders seeking higher-margin, lower-debt exposure may gravitate toward one, while those prioritizing diversification and income may favor the other.
AGI Overview and Recent Performance
Alamos Gold Inc. is a Toronto-based intermediate gold producer operating three primary mines: Young-Davidson and Island Gold in Canada and Mulatos in Mexico. The company has been among the sector's most profitable operators, reporting a trailing-twelve-month (TTM) profit margin near 52% and return on equity (ROE) of roughly 27%, supported by a modest debt-to-equity ratio around 5%.
AGI shares rallied strongly into the first part of 2026, reaching a 52-week high above $55, before a pronounced pullback that took the stock toward the low $30s in recent market activity. The correction has left the stock down on a one-year price basis despite its strong fundamentals. Sentiment has been shaped by gold-price swings, cost management, and periodic profit-taking after a multi-year advance, while the shares remain supported by a clean balance sheet and consistent cash generation.
PAAS Overview and Recent Performance
Pan American Silver Corp. is a Vancouver-based precious-metals producer recognized as one of the world's largest primary silver miners, with substantial gold output across a portfolio spanning the Americas. Following its 2023 acquisition of Yamana Gold's assets, the company broadened both its production base and its metal mix, positioning it as a diversified silver-and-gold operator.
PAAS shares experienced a similar trajectory to the broader precious-metals complex, climbing to a 52-week high near $70 before retreating into the low-to-mid $40s in recent weeks. Despite the drawdown, the stock retains a positive one-year return. The company generates higher absolute revenue (about $4.3 billion TTM) and a larger net income base than AGI, carries a roughly 11% debt-to-equity ratio, and pays a more substantial dividend, with a yield near 1.7%. Its higher beta of about 1.6 reflects greater sensitivity to metal-price volatility.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two miners is specialization versus diversification. AGI is a focused gold producer with higher margins, lower debt, and a leaner cost structure, but narrower metal and geographic exposure. PAAS spreads risk across silver and gold and multiple countries, trades at a lower forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, and returns more capital through dividends.
On growth and momentum, both companies posted strong year-over-year revenue and earnings gains, yet both have retreated from early-2026 peaks amid precious-metals volatility. AGI carries roughly a 0.5% dividend yield and a forward P/E near 13.8, while PAAS offers a yield near 1.7% and a forward P/E around 10.3, reflecting differing market expectations. Risk factors also diverge: AGI's higher beta than its peers partly reflects its single-metal focus, while PAAS's silver exposure ties it more directly to industrial demand cycles in addition to investment flows.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward PAAS in the current environment. Its lower forward valuation, broader metal and geographic diversification, higher dividend yield, and still-positive one-year relative performance suggest more resilient market positioning during a period of elevated metals volatility. That said, AGI's superior margins, stronger ROE, and minimal debt give it meaningful advantages if gold prices stabilize and trend higher. The outlook is therefore conditional rather than definitive: a sustained gold rally could favor the higher-margin, lower-debt profile of AGI, while a choppier, mixed-metals environment may continue to reward PAAS's diversification and valuation discount.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AGI is a Hold and PAAS is a StrongBuy.
AGI sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
AGI saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 22, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 42 of the 51 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AGI as a result. In 47 of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
AGI moved below its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AGI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AGI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Aroon Indicator for AGI entered a downward trend on October 27, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 43 of 53 cases where AGI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Following a +4.14% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AGI advanced for three days, in 260 of 335 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
AGI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 63, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 57 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.716) is normal, around the industry mean (1.934). P/E Ratio (11.176) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-15.264). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.070) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.342) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.527) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AGI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
PAAS's Stochastic Oscillator is staying in oversold zone for 3 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where PAAS's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 26 of 29 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Following a +3.76% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PAAS advanced for three days, in 241 of 299 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
PAAS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
PAAS moved below its 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for PAAS crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PAAS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Aroon Indicator for PAAS entered a downward trend on October 27, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 46 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.348) is normal, around the industry mean (1.934). P/E Ratio (12.325) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-15.264). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.030) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.018) settles around the average of (0.342) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.533) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 63, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. PAAS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
AGI | PAAS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 72 | 69 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 57 Fair valued | 46 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 56 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 35 | 43 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 62 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 95 | 89 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PAAS's Valuation (46) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as AGI (57). This means that PAAS’s stock grew similarly to AGI’s over the last 12 months.
AGI's Profit vs Risk Rating (50) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as PAAS (56). This means that AGI’s stock grew similarly to PAAS’s over the last 12 months.
AGI's SMR Rating (35) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as PAAS (43). This means that AGI’s stock grew similarly to PAAS’s over the last 12 months.
AGI's Price Growth Rating (62) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as PAAS (62). This means that AGI’s stock grew similarly to PAAS’s over the last 12 months.
PAAS's P/E Growth Rating (89) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as AGI (95). This means that PAAS’s stock grew similarly to AGI’s over the last 12 months.
| AGI | PAAS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 65% | 5 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 88% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 71% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AGI’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while PAAS’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- AGI’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- PAAS’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AGI’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PAAS’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AGI’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- PAAS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AGI (@Precious Metals) experienced а -2.04% price change this week, while PAAS (@Precious Metals) price change was -5.94% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was -3.12%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -13.81%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.01%.
Reported Earning Dates
AGI is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
PAAS is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (-3.12% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
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AGI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AGI has been closely correlated with AEM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AGI jumps, then AEM could also see price increases.