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AIT vs MSM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT) vs. MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AIT is a higher-margin technical solutions distributor with roughly $5 billion in fiscal 2026 sales; MSM is a metalworking and MRO (maintenance, repair, and operations) distributor with roughly $3.8 billion in annual sales.
- AIT has shown steadier earnings growth, while MSM is emerging from a downcycle in heavy manufacturing that compressed its fiscal 2025 margins.
- MSM delivered the stronger recent share-price gain, but AIT has generated more consistent fundamental momentum and a higher return on equity.
- Both trade at elevated earnings multiples, yet MSM offers a meaningfully higher dividend yield than AIT.
- Risk profiles differ: AIT is tied to an automation and technology upcycle, while MSM remains exposed to soft industrial demand and tariff-driven cost pressure.
Introduction
Applied Industrial Technologies and MSC Industrial Direct both operate in industrial distribution, but they compete for investor attention with very different profiles. This stock comparison is relevant for traders evaluating relative performance and for investors weighing a growth-oriented technical solutions provider against a value-and-income-oriented MRO distributor. Both companies serve manufacturing and maintenance end markets, yet their business models, growth drivers, and recent momentum have diverged. Understanding those contrasts helps clarify market positioning and which name may be better suited to current conditions.
AIT Overview and Recent Performance
AIT, Applied Industrial Technologies, is a value-added distributor and technical solutions provider of industrial motion, fluid power, flow control, automation technologies, and related maintenance supplies, headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio. It operates through a Service Center Based Distribution segment and an Engineered Solutions segment, with a growing emphasis on robotics, machine vision, and automation.
Recent market activity has reflected a company growing through a mixed industrial backdrop. Fiscal 2026 sales rose about 8.8% year over year to roughly $5 billion, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) up about 8% to $10.95. Management has highlighted strong order momentum in engineered solutions, including automation orders, and has deployed capital through acquisitions and an 11% dividend increase. The shares trade near $330 with a roughly 33% one-year return, and sentiment has been supported by consistent earnings growth, a return on equity above 20%, and exposure to semiconductor and data center demand. Near-term considerations include elevated inventory costs (LIFO, or last-in, first-out) and choppy customer demand in certain end markets.
MSM Overview and Recent Performance
MSM, MSC Industrial Direct, is a North American distributor of metalworking and MRO products and services, headquartered in Melville, New York. The company serves a diverse base—including heavy manufacturing, government, and machine shops—through e-commerce and direct sales channels, with e-commerce representing a majority of sales.
Recent performance has been shaped by a recovery from a soft patch. Fiscal 2025 sales declined about 1.3% to $3.77 billion, and net income fell roughly 23% as operating margin compressed on softer heavy-manufacturing volumes, a shift toward lower-margin public-sector sales, and tariff-related cost pressure. In the latest quarters, however, the trend has improved: revenue has returned to year-over-year growth, and adjusted operating margin and EPS have rebounded, with management guiding toward stronger average daily sales growth. The stock has been a notable outperformer, delivering one of the stronger recent price gains in its peer group, supported by improving demand trends and a dividend yield of roughly 3%.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast is in business mix. AIT skews toward value-added technical solutions—fluid power, flow control, and automation—which commands higher margins and ties growth to capital spending and reshoring. MSM is more commodity-oriented, focused on metalworking and MRO supplies where competition is intense and margins depend heavily on volume and pricing. As a result, AIT has historically generated stronger profitability, while MSM's larger customer base and e-commerce scale give it a different kind of reach.
Growth drivers also diverge. AIT is benefiting from automation order growth and acquisitions, positioning it toward a technology and data-center upcycle. MSM is rebuilding from a demand trough in heavy manufacturing, and its recovery is more sensitive to tariffs and industrial production. On relative performance, MSM has shown stronger recent share-price momentum, but AIT has delivered more consistent earnings and higher returns on equity. Valuation is comparable on an earnings basis, though MSM's higher dividend yield may appeal to income-focused investors. In terms of risk, AIT carries acquisition and inventory-cost considerations, while MSM faces ongoing exposure to soft manufacturing and margin pressure from public-sector mix.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative earnings stability, and sector positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward AIT as the more favorable candidate in the current environment. AIT's steadier fundamental momentum, higher return on equity, and alignment with automation and technology tailwinds present a more consistent trend profile than MSM's still-developing recovery. That said, MSM's improving revenue growth, rebounding margins, and attractive dividend yield keep it a credible alternative, particularly for strategies that favor income or mean-reversion. The relative positioning of these two stocks may shift as new earnings and macro data arrive, so systematic monitoring remains important.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AIT is a Buy and MSM is a StrongBuy.
AIT's RSI Indicator descends into oversold zone
The RSI Oscillator for AIT moved into overbought territory on October 30, 2026. Be on the watch for a price drop or consolidation in the future -- when this happens, think about selling the stock or exploring put options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.63% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AIT advanced for three days, in 227 of 339 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
AIT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 192 of 276 cases where AIT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AIT as a result. In 59 of 94 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AIT turned negative on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 58%.
AIT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AIT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 37%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AIT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AIT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.803) is normal, around the industry mean (4.070). P/E Ratio (26.521) is within average values for comparable stocks, (0.373). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.812) is also within normal values, averaging (2.538). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.467) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.402) is also within normal values, averaging (3.013).
MSM in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026
MSM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 29 of 37 cases where MSM's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MSM's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 31 of 52 cases where MSM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +3.84% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MSM advanced for three days, in 185 of 332 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 133 of 276 cases where MSM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 48%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MSM as a result. In 52 of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MSM turned negative on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 65%.
MSM moved below its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MSM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MSM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MSM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.761) is normal, around the industry mean (4.070). P/E Ratio (29.232) is within average values for comparable stocks, (0.373). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.487) is also within normal values, averaging (2.538). Dividend Yield (0.029) settles around the average of (0.467) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.724) is also within normal values, averaging (3.013).
AIT | MSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 86 Overvalued | 85 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 20 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 43 | 52 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 21 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MSM's Valuation (85) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as AIT (86). This means that MSM’s stock grew similarly to AIT’s over the last 12 months.
AIT's Profit vs Risk Rating (10) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as MSM (20). This means that AIT’s stock grew similarly to MSM’s over the last 12 months.
AIT's SMR Rating (43) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as MSM (52). This means that AIT’s stock grew similarly to MSM’s over the last 12 months.
MSM's Price Growth Rating (44) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as AIT (60). This means that MSM’s stock grew similarly to AIT’s over the last 12 months.
MSM's P/E Growth Rating (21) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as AIT (36). This means that MSM’s stock grew similarly to AIT’s over the last 12 months.
| AIT | MSM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 90% | 4 days ago 78% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 60% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 51% | 4 days ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 54% | 4 days ago 50% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 67% | 5 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 48% | 15 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 88% | 4 days ago 78% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 4 days ago 48% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AIT’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while MSM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AIT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MSM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AIT’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MSM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AIT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MSM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AIT (@Electronics Distributors) experienced а -7.22% price change this week, while MSM (@Electronics Distributors) price change was +6.29% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronics Distributors industry was +4.00%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.08%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.34%.
Reported Earning Dates
AIT is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
MSM is expected to report earnings on Jan 13, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronics Distributors (+4.00% weekly)Electronics distributors are companies that are involved in distribution of one or more of the following: electronic components, computer products/ peripherals and software products & services. Several electronics distributors are also becoming the point of contact for technical/pre- & post-sale support in many cases, in an attempt to bolster their position in the market. Tariffs and/or cross-border trade barriers are some of the potential threats to the electronics supply chain, but that could also potentially lead to re-directing to markets where tariffs/restrictions are lower depending on demand. The industry is also vulnerable in the event of economic slowdowns. Arrow Electronics, Inc., SYNNEX Corporation and Versum Materials, Inc. are some of the major electronics distributors in the U.S.
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AIT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AIT has been loosely correlated with MSM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 57% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AIT jumps, then MSM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AIT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIT | 100% | -2.75% | ||
| MSM - AIT | 57% Loosely correlated | -1.55% | ||
| WCC - AIT | 57% Loosely correlated | -6.44% | ||
| FERG - AIT | 54% Loosely correlated | -0.74% | ||
| FAST - AIT | 52% Loosely correlated | -1.22% | ||
| CNM - AIT | 48% Loosely correlated | +0.25% | ||
More | ||||
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