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ALGT vs UAL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) vs. United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ALGT delivered stronger year-to-date and one-year returns compared with UAL, reflecting robust recent momentum in the ultra-low-cost carrier segment.
- Both carriers reported solid first-quarter 2026 revenue growth, with ALGT posting a larger year-over-year increase in adjusted earnings per share.
- UAL lowered its full-year 2026 earnings guidance amid higher fuel costs, while ALGT highlighted margin expansion without similar downward revisions in recent disclosures.
- ALGT operates a more focused point-to-point network serving leisure travelers, whereas UAL maintains a broader global network with significant international exposure.
- Market sentiment has favored both stocks in recent weeks, though ALGT has shown greater price appreciation amid improving operational metrics.
- Upcoming second-quarter results for UAL on July 15, 2026, will provide further clarity on demand trends and cost pressures affecting the sector.
Introduction
Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) and United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) represent distinct segments within the U.S. airline industry. This comparison examines their business models, recent financial results, and stock performance to assist investors and traders evaluating relative positioning in the current market environment. The analysis focuses on verifiable developments over recent weeks and broader performance trends, offering insights relevant to those assessing sector exposure, momentum, and risk profiles.
ALGT Overview and Recent Performance
Allegiant Travel Company operates as an ultra-low-cost carrier focused on point-to-point leisure routes, primarily serving smaller markets with a fleet optimized for cost efficiency. In the first quarter of 2026, the company reported record total operating revenue of $732.4 million, up 9.6 percent year-over-year, alongside adjusted diluted earnings per share of $3.77, representing a 78.7 percent increase from the prior year. Adjusted operating margin expanded significantly to 14.9 percent. Stock performance has been strong, with year-to-date returns of approximately 30 percent and one-year returns near 89 percent as of early July 2026. Recent market activity has shown notable price appreciation, supported by positive earnings momentum and operational improvements.
UAL Overview and Recent Performance
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. is a major full-service carrier with an extensive domestic and international network, generating revenue from passenger, cargo, and ancillary services. First-quarter 2026 results included total operating revenue of $14.61 billion, up 10.6 percent year-over-year, with adjusted earnings per share beating estimates. However, the company reduced its 2026 adjusted earnings guidance to a range of $7 to $11 per share due to elevated fuel costs. Shares have delivered year-to-date returns of about 13 percent and one-year returns of roughly 37 percent. Over the past month, the stock advanced approximately 14.6 percent amid sector recovery, with second-quarter earnings scheduled for release on July 15, 2026.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ALGT and UAL differ markedly in scale and strategy. ALGT emphasizes cost leadership and leisure-focused routes, resulting in higher sensitivity to fuel prices but potentially greater margin flexibility during strong demand periods. UAL benefits from network effects and premium cabin revenue yet faces greater exposure to international travel fluctuations and higher fixed costs. Recent momentum favors ALGT, with superior returns and earnings growth, while UAL contends with revised guidance. Both stocks operate in the same sector and share risks from fuel volatility, labor costs, and economic sensitivity, though their risk profiles vary by business model and geographic reach.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as stronger recent price appreciation, consistent earnings outperformance, and absence of downward guidance revisions, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a higher probabilistic preference to ALGT over UAL. This assessment reflects trend consistency and relative positioning in recent market activity, though outcomes remain subject to broader sector dynamics and forthcoming earnings data.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ALGT is a Buy and UAL is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ALGT’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileUAL’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ALGT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- UAL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ALGT’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UAL’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ALGT’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- UAL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ALGT (@Airlines) experienced а -7.55% price change this week, while UAL (@Airlines) price change was -8.56% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Airlines industry was -9.01%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.91%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1.23%.
Reported Earning Dates
ALGT is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
UAL is expected to report earnings on Jul 15, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Airlines (-9.01% weekly)Airlines industry comprises passenger air transportation, including scheduled and non-scheduled routes. This can include charter airlines, as well as regular commuter ones. Discount pricing and the rise of low-cost carriers over recent decades have expanded the industry by making its services accessible to a much larger global population, compared to the older days when airline travel was a relative luxury for many people in the world. Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co and United Continental Holdings, Inc. are some of the airlines with the largest stock market capitalizations in the U.S.
| ALGT | UAL | ALGT / UAL | |
| Capitalization | 2.87B | 39.3B | 7% |
| EBITDA | 336M | 5.83B | 6% |
| Gain YTD | 25.355 | 8.353 | 304% |
| P/E Ratio | 17.91 | 10.84 | 165% |
| Revenue | 2.64B | 60.5B | 4% |
| Total Cash | 902M | 14.2B | 6% |
| Total Debt | 1.85B | 31B | 6% |
ALGT | UAL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 87 | 80 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 27 Undervalued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 41 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 93 | 37 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 8 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 92 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ALGT's Valuation (27) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UAL (82). This means that ALGT’s stock grew somewhat faster than UAL’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's Profit vs Risk Rating (41) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ALGT (100). This means that UAL’s stock grew somewhat faster than ALGT’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's SMR Rating (37) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ALGT (93). This means that UAL’s stock grew somewhat faster than ALGT’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's Price Growth Rating (8) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as ALGT (37). This means that UAL’s stock grew similarly to ALGT’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's P/E Growth Rating (25) in the Airlines industry is significantly better than the same rating for ALGT (92). This means that UAL’s stock grew significantly faster than ALGT’s over the last 12 months.
| ALGT | UAL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 87% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 82% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 74% | 19 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 76% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 81% |
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ALGT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ALGT has been closely correlated with AAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ALGT jumps, then AAL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ALGT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALGT | 100% | -3.72% | ||
| AAL - ALGT | 76% Closely correlated | -3.78% | ||
| UAL - ALGT | 74% Closely correlated | -3.84% | ||
| SKYW - ALGT | 71% Closely correlated | -1.95% | ||
| JBLU - ALGT | 70% Closely correlated | -2.78% | ||
| ULCC - ALGT | 66% Closely correlated | -5.33% | ||
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UAL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UAL has been closely correlated with AAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UAL jumps, then AAL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UAL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAL | 100% | -3.84% | ||
| AAL - UAL | 83% Closely correlated | -3.78% | ||
| ALGT - UAL | 74% Closely correlated | -3.72% | ||
| SKYW - UAL | 73% Closely correlated | -1.95% | ||
| JBLU - UAL | 66% Loosely correlated | -2.78% | ||
| ULCC - UAL | 60% Loosely correlated | -5.33% | ||
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