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ALGT vs UAL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) vs. United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ALGT has shown stronger recent momentum, gaining approximately 16% over the past month amid merger approvals and raised profit outlooks, outperforming UAL's roughly 6% rise.
- UAL boasts a significantly larger market capitalization of about $32 billion compared to ALGT's $1.7 billion, offering greater scale in the airline sector.
- Both stocks have delivered robust one-year returns—ALGT over 100% and UAL around 50%—reflecting recovery in air travel demand.
- Analyst price targets suggest upside potential: $101 for ALGT (about 12% from recent levels) and $130 for UAL (over 30%).
- Fuel cost pressures impact both, but ALGT's leisure focus and capacity adjustments have supported resilience in recent market activity.
Introduction
This ALGT vs. UAL stock comparison examines two airlines at different scales: Allegiant Travel Company, a low-cost leisure carrier, and United Airlines Holdings, Inc., a major global network operator. Investors tracking the airline sector amid fluctuating fuel prices, travel demand recovery, and merger activity may find value in assessing their relative performance, risk profiles, and growth drivers. With recent catalysts like acquisition approvals and earnings anticipation, this analysis highlights key contrasts in momentum, stability, and market positioning for informed trading and investment decisions in the current environment.
ALGT Overview and Recent Performance
Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) operates as a low-cost airline focused on leisure travel to underserved leisure destinations, primarily in the U.S. In recent weeks, ALGT shares have risen about 16%, trading around $90 with a 52-week range of $39.80 to $118. This momentum stems from U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) approval for its proposed $1.5 billion merger with Sun Country Airlines, alongside a raised first-quarter profit outlook as strong demand offset higher fuel costs. Year-to-date gains stand at roughly 6%, with one-year returns exceeding 100%, reflecting volatility (beta of 1.63) but positive sentiment from operational resilience and expansion potential.
UAL Overview and Recent Performance
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) is a leading global airline with extensive hub-and-spoke operations, serving international and domestic routes. Shares have climbed around 6% in recent weeks, trading near $99 within a 52-week range of $65 to $119. Performance reflects mixed sentiment from rejected merger talks with American Airlines, ongoing fuel cost challenges, and anticipation for first-quarter earnings, where revenue is expected at $14.45 billion. Year-to-date returns are about 12%, with one-year gains near 50%, supported by a lower beta of 1.29 indicating relative stability, though capacity cuts amid jet fuel surges have influenced trading.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ALGT and UAL both navigate the cyclical airline industry but differ in business models: ALGT emphasizes point-to-point leisure routes with ancillary revenues, while UAL leverages international premium travel and cargo via major hubs. Growth drivers include ALGT's merger for fleet expansion versus UAL's capacity management and premium cabin push. Recent momentum favors ALGT with sharper gains, but UAL provides scale advantages in revenue ($59 billion TTM vs. $2.6 billion). Risk factors are elevated debt-to-equity ratios (177% for ALGT, 203% for UAL) and fuel sensitivity, with ALGT showing higher volatility. Market sentiment tilts toward holds for both, though UAL garners more buy ratings amid broader exposure.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors ALGT over UAL based on superior short-term trend consistency, with 16% monthly gains outpacing UAL, alongside catalysts like the Sun Country merger approval enhancing growth prospects. While UAL offers stability and higher analyst upside, ALGT's relative momentum and leisure demand positioning provide a probabilistic edge in the near term.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ALGT is a Buy and UAL is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ALGT’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileUAL’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ALGT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- UAL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ALGT’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UAL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ALGT’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- UAL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ALGT (@Airlines) experienced а +7.24% price change this week, while UAL (@Airlines) price change was -1.08% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Airlines industry was +2.47%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.99%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.01%.
Reported Earning Dates
ALGT is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
UAL is expected to report earnings on Jul 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Airlines (+2.47% weekly)Airlines industry comprises passenger air transportation, including scheduled and non-scheduled routes. This can include charter airlines, as well as regular commuter ones. Discount pricing and the rise of low-cost carriers over recent decades have expanded the industry by making its services accessible to a much larger global population, compared to the older days when airline travel was a relative luxury for many people in the world. Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co and United Continental Holdings, Inc. are some of the airlines with the largest stock market capitalizations in the U.S.
| ALGT | UAL | ALGT / UAL | |
| Capitalization | 2.78B | 39.5B | 7% |
| EBITDA | 336M | 5.83B | 6% |
| Gain YTD | 19.784 | 6.135 | 322% |
| P/E Ratio | 17.91 | 10.62 | 169% |
| Revenue | 2.64B | 60.5B | 4% |
| Total Cash | 902M | 14.2B | 6% |
| Total Debt | 1.85B | 31B | 6% |
ALGT | UAL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 34 | 33 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 26 Undervalued | 85 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 43 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 93 | 37 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 10 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 91 | 19 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ALGT's Valuation (26) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UAL (85). This means that ALGT’s stock grew somewhat faster than UAL’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's Profit vs Risk Rating (43) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ALGT (100). This means that UAL’s stock grew somewhat faster than ALGT’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's SMR Rating (37) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ALGT (93). This means that UAL’s stock grew somewhat faster than ALGT’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's Price Growth Rating (10) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as ALGT (37). This means that UAL’s stock grew similarly to ALGT’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's P/E Growth Rating (19) in the Airlines industry is significantly better than the same rating for ALGT (91). This means that UAL’s stock grew significantly faster than ALGT’s over the last 12 months.
| ALGT | UAL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 76% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 84% | 7 days ago 77% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 78% |
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ALGT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ALGT has been closely correlated with DAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ALGT jumps, then DAL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ALGT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALGT | 100% | +1.37% | ||
| DAL - ALGT | 76% Closely correlated | +2.07% | ||
| AAL - ALGT | 75% Closely correlated | +0.56% | ||
| UAL - ALGT | 73% Closely correlated | +0.30% | ||
| SNCY - ALGT | 72% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| LUV - ALGT | 72% Closely correlated | +1.25% | ||
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UAL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UAL has been closely correlated with DAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UAL jumps, then DAL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UAL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAL | 100% | +0.30% | ||
| DAL - UAL | 89% Closely correlated | +2.07% | ||
| AAL - UAL | 82% Closely correlated | +0.56% | ||
| SKYW - UAL | 77% Closely correlated | +0.53% | ||
| ALK - UAL | 76% Closely correlated | -0.93% | ||
| ALGT - UAL | 71% Closely correlated | +1.37% | ||
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