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ALL vs HIG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Allstate (ALL) vs. Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ALL has delivered a pronounced underwriting turnaround, with its property-liability combined ratio improving sharply from 97.4 to 82.0 year over year in its most recent quarter.
- HIG offers a more diversified, commercial-lines-heavy model with steadier margins, but it is navigating a CEO transition and a softening property and casualty (P&C) pricing cycle.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: ALL — Allstate currently presents stronger trend consistency and earnings momentum, making it the AI's preferred ticker of the two.
- Both names return significant capital to shareholders, with ALL raising its dividend and authorizing a $4 billion buyback, and HIG unveiling a $4.2 billion repurchase plan through 2028.
- Explore more on each company through ALL Major News, ALL Today's Price Move, HIG Major News, and HIG Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI-driven strategies are positioning across the market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Allstate (ALL) and The Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG) are two of the most closely watched property and casualty insurers in the United States, yet they occupy meaningfully different corners of the market. Allstate is a personal-lines leader concentrated in auto and homeowners coverage, while The Hartford skews toward commercial lines, group benefits, and wealth management. For traders and investors weighing relative performance, market positioning, and risk exposure, this stock comparison highlights how two insurers can post strong results while carrying very different drivers and vulnerabilities. The analysis is especially relevant for those seeking to understand which name currently offers more consistent momentum in a changing interest-rate and catastrophe environment.
ALL Overview and Recent Performance
Allstate has completed a notable recovery after heavy losses in 2022 and 2023, when inflation in auto and home repair costs and regulatory limits on rate increases pressured results. By tightening underwriting standards, raising premiums where permitted, and expanding its technology and analytics capabilities, the company rebuilt profitability. In its most recent quarter, Allstate reported net income of roughly $2.4 billion, or $10.65 per share, well above analyst expectations, while total revenue grew about 3% to $16.9 billion. The overall property-liability combined ratio — a key measure of claims and expenses per $100 of premium — improved to 82.0 from 97.4 a year earlier, reflecting better pricing and lower catastrophe losses. Recent weeks have seen strong momentum, with earnings beats and multiple analyst upgrades, though catastrophe exposure remains a persistent overhang on sentiment.
HIG Overview and Recent Performance
The Hartford operates a more diversified franchise spanning commercial property and casualty insurance, group benefits, and, until its planned divestiture, the Hartford Funds asset-management business. Its recent results reflect that steadier, commercial-oriented profile. In its latest quarter, The Hartford reported net income of $637 million, down from $710 million a year earlier, as higher catastrophe losses and a modest uptick in the underlying loss ratio partially offset earned-premium growth and rising investment income. Written premiums grew about 6% across its business lines. The company also raised its quarterly dividend by 12%, authorized a $4.2 billion share repurchase program through 2028, and confirmed a planned CEO transition effective in early 2027. In recent weeks, the stock has firmed following its earnings beat and capital-return announcements, even as investors weigh a softening commercial P&C pricing environment.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page is a curated hub for traders and investors seeking data-driven market strategies. Tickeron maintains hundreds of AI trading bots covering thousands of tickers, but only a select group earns placement in this section — those whose performance, trading style, timeframe, and strategy best align with current market conditions. These bots differ widely: some focus on short-term momentum, others on swing or position trading, and each carries its own statistical profile and ticker universe. This variety lets users evaluate approaches suited to their own risk preferences and objectives. If you are interested in how automated, algorithm-driven analysis approaches names like ALL and HIG, exploring the Trending AI Robots page can offer additional, quantitative context.
Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both companies are insurers, their business models create different risk and reward profiles. Allstate is a personal-lines specialist whose earnings are highly sensitive to auto and homeowners pricing cycles and, crucially, to catastrophe losses from severe weather. The Hartford, by contrast, leans on commercial lines and group benefits, which tend to produce more stable loss patterns but are now facing a softening pricing environment that could compress future underwriting margins. Growth drivers also differ: Allstate is expanding digitally enabled products and investing in AI and analytics to lower its expense ratio, while The Hartford is reallocating capital through buybacks and the sale of Hartford Funds. On recent momentum, Allstate has posted larger earnings surprises and a sharper improvement in its combined ratio, whereas The Hartford offers steadier results alongside a pending leadership transition that introduces a degree of execution uncertainty.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI currently leans toward ALL. Allstate's improving combined ratio, consecutive earnings beats, and clearer near-term catalysts give it a stronger trend profile than The Hartford, which faces a softening commercial pricing cycle and an upcoming CEO transition. That said, the comparison is not one-sided: The Hartford's diversification and steadier loss patterns may appeal to investors prioritizing stability, while Allstate carries greater catastrophe sensitivity. The AI's preference for Allstate reflects a probabilistic assessment of current momentum rather than a definitive prediction of future performance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ALL is a Hold and HIG is a Hold.
ALL's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ALL turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where ALL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ALL as a result. In 55 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
ALL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ALL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +3.15% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ALL advanced for three days, in 209 of 330 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 143 of 241 cases where ALL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 59%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 16 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ALL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
ALL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 51, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 38 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.106) is normal, around the industry mean (-2.190). P/E Ratio (5.219) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.307). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.673) is also within normal values, averaging (3.303). Dividend Yield (0.016) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.968) is also within normal values, averaging (1.594).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ALL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
HIG in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026
The 10-day moving average for HIG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 29 of 49 cases where HIG's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on HIG as a result. In 49 of 94 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HIG just turned positive on November 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where HIG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
HIG moved above its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HIG advanced for three days, in 196 of 354 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 171 of 326 cases where HIG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 52%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for HIG moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 15 of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 35%.
The 50-day moving average for HIG moved below the 200-day moving average on October 09, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HIG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 45 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.902) is normal, around the industry mean (1.661). P/E Ratio (8.659) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.943). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.540) is also within normal values, averaging (0.465). Dividend Yield (0.018) settles around the average of (0.061) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.313) is also within normal values, averaging (1.806).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HIG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 67 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
ALL | HIG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 38 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 38 Fair valued | 45 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 89 | 91 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 85 | 67 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ALL's Valuation (38) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as HIG (45) in the Multi Line Insurance industry. This means that ALL’s stock grew similarly to HIG’s over the last 12 months.
HIG's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Multi Line Insurance industry is in the same range as ALL (9) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry. This means that HIG’s stock grew similarly to ALL’s over the last 12 months.
ALL's SMR Rating (89) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as HIG (91) in the Multi Line Insurance industry. This means that ALL’s stock grew similarly to HIG’s over the last 12 months.
ALL's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as HIG (48) in the Multi Line Insurance industry. This means that ALL’s stock grew similarly to HIG’s over the last 12 months.
HIG's P/E Growth Rating (67) in the Multi Line Insurance industry is in the same range as ALL (85) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry. This means that HIG’s stock grew similarly to ALL’s over the last 12 months.
| ALL | HIG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 35% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 52% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 45% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 48% | 7 days ago 48% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 52% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ALL’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while HIG’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ALL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- HIG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ALL’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HIG’s TA Score has 7 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ALL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- HIG’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
ALL (@Property/Casualty Insurance) experienced а +3.14% price change this week, while HIG (@Multi-Line Insurance) price change was -0.31% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Property/Casualty Insurance industry was +1.65%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +9.88%, and the average quarterly price growth was +21.80%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Multi-Line Insurance industry was +2.64%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.45%, and the average quarterly price growth was +0.09%.
Reported Earning Dates
ALL is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
HIG is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Property/Casualty Insurance (+1.65% weekly)Property and casualty companies insure against accidents of non-physical harm, such as lawsuits, damage to personal assets, car crashes and more. Progressive Corporation, Travelers Companies, Inc. and Allstate Corporation are some of the biggest providers of such products.
@Multi-Line Insurance (+2.64% weekly)A multi-line insurance contract bundles together exposures to risk and covers them under a single contract. For providers of such policies, the bundle is a potential risk diversification strategy since their exposure gets spread over several factors, which helps them mitigate a financial burden if a catastrophic event were to occur. Other potential benefits include getting more premiums from including more than one type of insurance in a bundle, and getting a competitive edge by procuring multiple insurance contracts with a customer. Examples of companies in this industry are Berkshire Hathaway (which owns several insurance companies), Chubb Limited, American International Group, Inc. and Sun Life Financial Inc.
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ALL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ALL has been closely correlated with HIG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ALL jumps, then HIG could also see price increases.
HIG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HIG has been closely correlated with TRV. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HIG jumps, then TRV could also see price increases.