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AMAT vs NVDA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Applied Materials (AMAT) vs. NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AMAT is the world's largest semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) supplier, providing the tools used to manufacture advanced logic and memory chips.
- NVDA is the dominant designer of AI accelerators and graphics processing units (GPUs), placing it at the center of data-center and AI infrastructure spending.
- Both stocks have delivered outsized gains over the past year, but their growth profiles differ sharply: NVDA has grown revenue at a far faster pace, while AMAT offers a more diversified, cyclical equipment business.
- AI demand is a shared tailwind, yet each company captures a different slice of the value chain — NVDA sells the chips, while AMAT supplies the machinery that makes them.
- China-related export restrictions weigh on both names, though the nature and magnitude of exposure differ materially.
Introduction
Investors evaluating the semiconductor sector often face a choice between companies that design the chips and companies that build the equipment needed to produce them. This stock comparison examines AMAT, the largest maker of chip-manufacturing equipment, and NVDA, the leader in AI computing platforms. Although both benefit from the same artificial intelligence investment cycle, they occupy very different positions within it. This comparison is relevant for traders and long-term investors seeking to understand relative performance, market positioning, and risk profiles before deciding where to allocate capital in one of the market's most consequential sectors.
AMAT Overview and Recent Performance
Applied Materials (AMAT) is the largest semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment manufacturer globally, holding leading share in deposition, etch, and other core chipmaking processes. Its customers include the world's largest foundries and memory producers, and its tools support advanced logic, dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI systems. The company posted record annual revenue and non-GAAP earnings for its most recent fiscal year, while gross margin expanded on a favorable product mix.
Over recent months, AMAT's stock has advanced strongly, supported by analyst price-target increases and enthusiasm around AI-driven demand for leading-edge equipment. However, relative performance has been tempered by U.S. export restrictions that have reduced access to the China market, a historically significant revenue contributor. Sentiment has also been shaped by a more mixed near-term outlook, with management indicating that semiconductor systems revenue may remain flat until leading-edge investments accelerate in the second half of the fiscal year. AMAT's valuation remains moderate relative to its high-growth AI peers, reflecting its more cyclical, capital-equipment-driven business model.
NVDA Overview and Recent Performance
NVIDIA (NVDA) designs GPUs and full-stack AI computing platforms that have become the backbone of modern data centers. Its data-center segment, driven by the Blackwell architecture and its successors, has delivered record revenue, with quarterly sales exceeding $50 billion and growing at a roughly two-thirds year-over-year pace. The company has guided for continued sequential growth and maintains a multi-hundred-billion-dollar pipeline of booked orders across its Blackwell and Rubin platforms.
In recent weeks, NVDA's share price has demonstrated significant volatility. The stock briefly became the first U.S. company to reach a $5 trillion market capitalization before pulling back from its highs as investors weighed concerns about AI spending sustainability and profit-taking among institutional holders. Strategic developments, including a licensing partnership in AI inference technology and evolving China export policy, have influenced sentiment. Despite periodic de-risking, NVDA remains one of the strongest relative performers in the semiconductor sector over the past year, though its elevated valuation leaves less margin for error.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most important contrast between these two companies is their position in the semiconductor supply chain. NVDA is a fabless designer whose revenue scales directly with AI infrastructure spending, giving it explosive growth but concentrated exposure to a single, fast-evolving market. AMAT, by contrast, is a pick-and-shovel equipment supplier whose fortunes depend on the capital expenditure cycles of chipmakers across logic, memory, and specialty segments, offering broader diversification but slower revenue growth.
Growth dynamics also diverge. NVDA has grown revenue at a much faster rate and commands premium valuation multiples, while AMAT trades at a more modest multiple consistent with its cyclicality. On the risk side, both face China export constraints, but the impact differs: AMAT loses direct equipment sales to restricted customers, whereas NVDA has seen limitations on advanced chip shipments and a prior write-off tied to export controls. Market sentiment toward NVDA is more volatile and headline-driven, reflecting its status as a bellwether for the broader AI trade, while AMAT sentiment tends to track semiconductor equipment spending forecasts.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, growth momentum, and market positioning, Tickeron's AI framework would likely lean toward NVDA in the current environment. The company's sustained revenue acceleration, record data-center results, and strong forward guidance suggest more durable trend momentum and clearer near-term catalysts. That said, AMAT presents a comparatively stable profile with a more balanced risk-reward given its lower valuation and diversified customer base. The verdict is probabilistic rather than absolute: NVDA appears better positioned for momentum-driven upside, while AMAT may appeal to those prioritizing valuation and diversification within the AI value chain.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AMAT is a Hold and NVDA is a Hold.
AMAT in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026
AMAT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 28 of 35 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AMAT as a result. In 66 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AMAT turned negative on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 64%.
The 10-day moving average for AMAT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMAT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator for AMAT entered a downward trend on September 25, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 7 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.45% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMAT advanced for three days, in 251 of 316 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
AMAT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AMAT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.631) is normal, around the industry mean (6.371). P/E Ratio (32.156) is within average values for comparable stocks, (86.229). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.967) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.008) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.764) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
NVDA in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026
NVDA moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 32 of 41 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for NVDA moved out of overbought territory on October 07, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 31 of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 70%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NVDA as a result. In 58 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NVDA turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 72%.
The 10-day moving average for NVDA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVDA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.26% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVDA advanced for three days, in 296 of 356 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
NVDA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 299 of 336 cases where NVDA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 89%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NVDA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 81 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: NVDA's P/B Ratio (22.378) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (6.008). P/E Ratio (26.693) is within average values for comparable stocks, (20.098). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.478) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (17.212) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
AMAT | NVDA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 67 | 77 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 75 Overvalued | 81 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 58 | 6 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 25 | 13 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 18 | 87 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AMAT's Valuation (75) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NVDA (81) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that AMAT’s stock grew similarly to NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AMAT (58) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew somewhat faster than AMAT’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's SMR Rating (13) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as AMAT (25) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to AMAT’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as AMAT (57) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to AMAT’s over the last 12 months.
AMAT's P/E Growth Rating (18) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is significantly better than the same rating for NVDA (87) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that AMAT’s stock grew significantly faster than NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
| AMAT | NVDA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 79% | 17 days ago 83% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 66% | 7 days ago 69% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 89% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 89% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AMAT’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while NVDA’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AMAT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- NVDA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AMAT’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVDA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AMAT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- NVDA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AMAT (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -8.44% price change this week, while NVDA (@Semiconductors) price change was +0.30% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -10.99%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -23.67%, and the average quarterly price growth was -33.55%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was -8.11%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -19.82%, and the average quarterly price growth was -12.10%.
Reported Earning Dates
AMAT is expected to report earnings on Nov 12, 2026.
NVDA is expected to report earnings on Nov 18, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-10.99% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Semiconductors (-8.11% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
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AMAT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AMAT has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AMAT jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AMAT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAT | 100% | -8.16% | ||
| LRCX - AMAT | 91% Closely correlated | -11.76% | ||
| KLAC - AMAT | 88% Closely correlated | -9.55% | ||
| ONTO - AMAT | 84% Closely correlated | -10.57% | ||
| ASML - AMAT | 82% Closely correlated | -6.93% | ||
| NVMI - AMAT | 81% Closely correlated | -6.37% | ||
More | ||||
NVDA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVDA has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVDA jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NVDA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 100% | -4.40% | ||
| LRCX - NVDA | 70% Closely correlated | -11.76% | ||
| KLAC - NVDA | 69% Closely correlated | -9.55% | ||
| AMAT - NVDA | 66% Closely correlated | -8.16% | ||
| AMKR - NVDA | 63% Loosely correlated | -10.70% | ||
| CAMT - NVDA | 63% Loosely correlated | -10.23% | ||
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