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AMAT vs NVMI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Applied Materials (AMAT) vs. Nova Ltd. (NVMI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AMAT (Applied Materials) is a diversified semiconductor-equipment giant with a market capitalization near $264 billion, while NVMI (Nova Ltd.) is a specialized metrology and process-control supplier near $9 billion.
- Both stocks have retreated sharply from their 52-week highs amid a broad semiconductor selloff, even as each reported record quarterly revenue and issued stronger-than-expected guidance.
- AMAT offers scale, a recurring services business, and leadership across deposition, etch, and advanced packaging, whereas NVMI combines faster growth with higher volatility and a narrower market focus.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: AMAT — favored for its diversification, more consistent trend structure, and broader analyst support.
- For further context, explore AMAT Major News and AMAT Today's Price Move, as well as NVMI Major News and NVMI Today's Price Move.
- Interested in data-driven trade ideas? Explore the Trending AI Robots section to see which automated strategies are currently favored by the market.
Introduction
Applied Materials and Nova Ltd. both sit at the heart of the artificial-intelligence chip buildout, yet they occupy very different positions in the semiconductor supply chain. AMAT is one of the world's largest makers of wafer-fabrication equipment (WFE) — the machinery used to deposit, etch, and polish the layers of a chip — while NVMI focuses on metrology and process control, the measurement systems that help manufacturers improve yield. For traders and investors weighing scale against growth, this stock comparison offers a useful lens on relative performance, market positioning, and risk. Both names have felt the same macro headwinds in recent weeks, making the contrast between a diversified leader and a nimble specialist particularly instructive.
AMAT Overview and Recent Performance
Applied Materials is a diversified materials-engineering company whose equipment, services, and software serve semiconductor, display, and related industries. It holds leading positions in deposition, etch, and advanced packaging, and it has deepened its push into high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and AI-driven chip complexity. In its most recent reported quarter, revenue rose roughly 25% year over year to a record, with management guiding the following quarter to approximately $10.25 billion — a roughly 51% increase. A recurring services segment (Applied Global Services) has added a steadier revenue layer, supported by a growing installed base.
Despite these fundamentals, AMAT has de-rated in recent weeks. The stock fell substantially from its mid-2026 peak as investors reassessed the sustainability of AI capital expenditure and reacted to policy and data-center spending uncertainty. The decline has compressed its valuation from roughly 49 times forward earnings near the June high into the low 20s, according to market commentary. The company also raised its stake in BE Semiconductor Industries to about 20%, reinforcing its advanced-packaging strategy. China remains a meaningful source of revenue, and export controls represent a watch item.
NVMI Overview and Recent Performance
Nova Ltd. develops process-control and metrology systems that measure critical dimensions, materials, and film properties during chip manufacturing. Its tools are increasingly tied to advanced DRAM (dynamic random-access memory), gate-all-around logic, and advanced packaging — areas where manufacturing complexity raises metrology intensity. In its most recent quarter, NVMI posted record revenue of about $287.8 million, up 28% year over year, with non-GAAP operating margin (a profitability measure excluding one-time items) expanding and free-cash-flow margin rising sharply. Management guided the following quarter to a roughly $310 million midpoint and said the company is on track to exceed $1 billion in annual revenue.
Nevertheless, NVMI shares have been highly volatile. The stock fell roughly 5% on the day it reported the record results, then rebounded by double digits the following session — a whiplash that reflects a broader de-rating rather than weak fundamentals. Several analysts cut price targets while maintaining Buy or Hold ratings, citing sector-wide multiple compression. With a market capitalization near $9 billion and a beta around 1.7, NVMI carries outsized sensitivity to swings in semiconductor sentiment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast is scale and scope. AMAT spans semiconductor systems, global services, and display, giving it diversified revenue streams and a large, recurring services base. NVMI is a specialist whose fortunes are more concentrated in metrology adoption and a handful of large customers. On growth, NVMI has delivered a faster percentage expansion and richer margins, but AMAT generates far greater absolute revenue and enjoys substantially broader analyst coverage — roughly 41 analysts versus about eight.
Risk profiles also differ. AMAT faces direct exposure to China revenue and export-control policy, while NVMI contends with supply-chain constraints and emerging competition in materials metrology. Both are levered to the same AI-driven WFE cycle, but AMAT's diversification provides a smoother relative performance profile, whereas NVMI offers higher sensitivity — and potentially higher upside — to a sustained upturn.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor AMAT over NVMI in the current environment. The reasoning centers on relative stability and positioning: AMAT combines scale, a recurring services business, leadership across multiple equipment categories, and a stronger, more consistent analyst consensus ("Strong Buy"). While NVMI offers compelling growth and margin execution, its narrower focus and higher volatility introduce greater trend inconsistency. A probabilistic framework therefore points toward AMAT as the more stable candidate, while acknowledging that a decisive AI-spending recovery could narrow the gap.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AMAT is a Hold and NVMI is a Hold.
AMAT's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for AMAT moved out of oversold territory on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 25 of the 29 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 44 of 55 cases where AMAT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AMAT just turned positive on November 11, 2026. Looking at past instances where AMAT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Following a +6.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMAT advanced for three days, in 250 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
AMAT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AMAT as a result. In 50 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
AMAT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AMAT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The 50-day moving average for AMAT moved below the 200-day moving average on November 09, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMAT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The Aroon Indicator for AMAT entered a downward trend on November 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AMAT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 74 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (10.304) is normal, around the industry mean (5.670). P/E Ratio (28.486) is within average values for comparable stocks, (68.795). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.967) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.764) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
NVMI in downward trend: 10-day moving average crossed below 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026
The 10-day moving average for NVMI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
NVMI moved below its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVMI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The Aroon Indicator for NVMI entered a downward trend on November 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NVMI's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 14 of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NVMI as a result. In 79 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NVMI just turned positive on November 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where NVMI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Following a +18.89% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVMI advanced for three days, in 246 of 320 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
NVMI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NVMI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 72 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.798) is normal, around the industry mean (5.670). P/E Ratio (36.374) is within average values for comparable stocks, (68.795). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.670) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (12.300) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
AMAT | NVMI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 14 | 56 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 74 Overvalued | 72 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 61 | 57 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 25 | 45 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 63 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 34 | 51 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVMI's Valuation (72) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as AMAT (74). This means that NVMI’s stock grew similarly to AMAT’s over the last 12 months.
NVMI's Profit vs Risk Rating (57) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as AMAT (61). This means that NVMI’s stock grew similarly to AMAT’s over the last 12 months.
AMAT's SMR Rating (25) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NVMI (45). This means that AMAT’s stock grew similarly to NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
AMAT's Price Growth Rating (61) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NVMI (63). This means that AMAT’s stock grew similarly to NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
AMAT's P/E Growth Rating (34) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NVMI (51). This means that AMAT’s stock grew similarly to NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
| AMAT | NVMI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 1 day ago 87% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 84% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 79% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 79% | 6 days ago 77% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 73% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 73% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AMAT’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while NVMI’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- AMAT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NVMI’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AMAT’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVMI’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AMAT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
- NVMI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AMAT (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а +11.36% price change this week, while NVMI (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was +1.49% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +5.56%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -16.06%, and the average quarterly price growth was -35.38%.
Reported Earning Dates
NVMI is expected to report earnings on Feb 18, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (+5.56% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
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AMAT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AMAT has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AMAT jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AMAT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAT | 100% | -2.74% | ||
| LRCX - AMAT | 91% Closely correlated | -3.36% | ||
| KLAC - AMAT | 89% Closely correlated | -3.17% | ||
| ONTO - AMAT | 86% Closely correlated | -2.89% | ||
| ASML - AMAT | 83% Closely correlated | -0.13% | ||
| NVMI - AMAT | 80% Closely correlated | -2.98% | ||
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NVMI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVMI has been closely correlated with KLAC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVMI jumps, then KLAC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NVMI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVMI | 100% | -2.98% | ||
| KLAC - NVMI | 84% Closely correlated | -3.17% | ||
| LRCX - NVMI | 84% Closely correlated | -3.36% | ||
| ONTO - NVMI | 81% Closely correlated | -2.89% | ||
| CAMT - NVMI | 81% Closely correlated | -3.50% | ||
| AMAT - NVMI | 80% Closely correlated | -2.74% | ||
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