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AMAT vs NVMI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Applied Materials (AMAT) vs. Nova Ltd. (NVMI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Two different scales: AMAT is a semiconductor-equipment giant with a market capitalization in the hundreds of billions, while NVMI is a much smaller, faster-growing metrology specialist.
- Shared AI tailwind: Both companies are leveraged to rising wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending driven by artificial intelligence, advanced logic, and memory demand.
- Sharp corrections: Both stocks pulled back significantly from their 2026 highs in recent weeks, reflecting sector-wide profit-taking and valuation concerns.
- Business focus differs: AMAT spans deposition, etch, and packaging equipment, while NVMI concentrates on optical, materials, and chemical metrology for process control.
- Risk profiles diverge: NVMI carries a higher beta and more concentrated revenue base, while AMAT offers scale, diversification, and a growing dividend.
- Verdict nuance: Relative strength, trend consistency, and stability currently shape how AI-driven models weigh these two names.
Introduction
Semiconductor capital equipment has become one of the market's most closely watched sectors as artificial intelligence reshapes demand for advanced chips. This stock comparison examines two companies operating at opposite ends of the scale spectrum within that theme. AMAT (Applied Materials, Inc.) is a diversified leader in materials engineering, while NVMI (Nova Ltd.) is a nimble process-control specialist. Growth-oriented traders may find NVMI's relative performance and momentum compelling, whereas longer-horizon investors may weigh AMAT's scale, margins, and shareholder returns. Understanding their market positioning, recent momentum, and risk factors helps clarify how AI-driven trading systems assess each name.
AMAT Overview and Recent Performance
Applied Materials is the leader in materials engineering solutions used across virtually every advanced semiconductor, spanning deposition, etch, e-beam metrology, and advanced packaging. In recent weeks, the company hosted its SEMICON West investor presentation, unveiling long-term 2030 targets that include a non-GAAP (non-Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) gross margin of roughly 54% and an operating margin near 40%, alongside plans to grow services revenue above $12 billion.
Despite this constructive long-term outlook, recent market activity has been volatile. After reaching an all-time closing high of $723.00 in late June 2026, shares retreated sharply, and by mid-October the stock had declined more than 40% from that peak, posting its longest losing streak since 2018. Investors reacted to the company's decision not to provide a specific WFE spending forecast, preferring to weigh strong AI demand against uncertainty over the pace of capacity additions. Fiscal 2025 revenue reached roughly $28.4 billion, and the company recently raised its quarterly dividend 15% to $0.53 per share, marking nine consecutive years of increases.
NVMI Overview and Recent Performance
Nova Ltd. provides advanced metrology solutions—covering optical, materials, and chemical measurement technologies—for process control throughout semiconductor fabrication. The company is headquartered in Israel and operates on a much smaller scale than AMAT, yet it has delivered rapid growth. Full-year 2025 revenue rose 31% to $880.6 million, and management is targeting the $1 billion revenue milestone by 2027.
Recent market activity has mirrored the sector's broader correction. NVMI shares touched a 52-week high near $616 before retreating roughly 47% to around $329 by mid-October. The stock carries a beta of approximately 1.78, underscoring its higher sensitivity to market swings. Operationally, momentum remains solid: first-quarter 2026 revenue grew 10% year-over-year to a record $235.3 million, and second-quarter revenue climbed to $254.9 million with an upbeat third-quarter outlook. The company also authorized a $200 million share repurchase program. However, analyst sentiment has softened recently, with at least one major firm downgrading the stock to Neutral and lowering its price target, citing tempered estimate-revision momentum.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast between these companies is breadth versus focus. AMAT is a diversified equipment platform serving foundry-logic, DRAM (dynamic random-access memory), NAND flash, and advanced packaging, with meaningful exposure to China, Taiwan, and Korea. NVMI concentrates almost entirely on metrology and process control, giving it a narrower product set but deep specialization in an increasingly critical step as chips grow more complex.
Growth dynamics also differ. NVMI has expanded revenue at a faster percentage rate, reflecting market-share gains and the rising metrology intensity of advanced nodes, gate-all-around transistors, and hybrid bonding. AMAT grows from a far larger base, with its outperformance tied to leadership in deposition, etch, and packaging plus a recurring services stream.
Risk factors diverge meaningfully. NVMI's higher beta, smaller market cap, and heavier reliance on a concentrated customer base make it more volatile. AMAT faces its own risks around China export controls and cyclical equipment demand but benefits from scale, geographic diversification, and a dividend. In terms of market sentiment, both stocks corrected sharply from mid-2026 highs, though NVMI's pullback has been steeper on a percentage basis from its peak.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward AMAT in the current environment. The company's larger scale, diversified revenue streams, growing services business, and consistent shareholder returns provide a more stable footing amid sector volatility. NVMI's stronger top-line growth and specialized niche are attractive, but its elevated beta and steeper drawdown suggest less trend consistency. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: a sustained recovery in high-growth metrology demand could shift relative strength back toward NVMI, while any prolonged weakness in equipment spending would pressure both names.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AMAT is a Hold and NVMI is a Hold.
AMAT in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026
The 10-day moving average for AMAT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AMAT as a result. In 63 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AMAT turned negative on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 62%.
AMAT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMAT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator for AMAT entered a downward trend on September 25, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.45% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMAT advanced for three days, in 251 of 316 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
AMAT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AMAT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 76 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.683) is normal, around the industry mean (6.249). P/E Ratio (32.298) is within average values for comparable stocks, (84.682). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.967) is also within normal values, averaging (0.832). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.008) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.764) is also within normal values, averaging (27.093).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
NVMI sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
NVMI saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 09, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 46 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NVMI as a result. In 65 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
NVMI moved below its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NVMI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVMI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 10 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +3.80% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVMI advanced for three days, in 248 of 320 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
NVMI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 197 of 271 cases where NVMI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 73%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 71 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.759) is normal, around the industry mean (6.249). P/E Ratio (36.161) is within average values for comparable stocks, (84.682). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.670) is also within normal values, averaging (0.832). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.008) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (12.300) is also within normal values, averaging (27.093).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. NVMI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
AMAT | NVMI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 76 Overvalued | 71 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 58 | 58 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 25 | 45 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 79 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 22 | 68 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVMI's Valuation (71) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as AMAT (76). This means that NVMI’s stock grew similarly to AMAT’s over the last 12 months.
NVMI's Profit vs Risk Rating (58) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as AMAT (58). This means that NVMI’s stock grew similarly to AMAT’s over the last 12 months.
AMAT's SMR Rating (25) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NVMI (45). This means that AMAT’s stock grew similarly to NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
AMAT's Price Growth Rating (61) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NVMI (79). This means that AMAT’s stock grew similarly to NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
AMAT's P/E Growth Rating (22) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NVMI (68). This means that AMAT’s stock grew somewhat faster than NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
| AMAT | NVMI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 76% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 75% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 79% | 4 days ago 77% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 66% | 6 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 84% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 73% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AMAT’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while NVMI’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- AMAT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- NVMI’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AMAT’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVMI’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AMAT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- NVMI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AMAT (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -7.83% price change this week, while NVMI (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was -3.07% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -4.19%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -22.43%, and the average quarterly price growth was -32.54%.
Reported Earning Dates
AMAT is expected to report earnings on Nov 12, 2026.
NVMI is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-4.19% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
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NVMI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVMI has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVMI jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NVMI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVMI | 100% | +0.39% | ||
| LRCX - NVMI | 84% Closely correlated | -0.02% | ||
| ONTO - NVMI | 81% Closely correlated | +0.01% | ||
| AMAT - NVMI | 81% Closely correlated | +0.44% | ||
| ASML - NVMI | 79% Closely correlated | +0.72% | ||
| ENTG - NVMI | 78% Closely correlated | +4.84% | ||
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