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AMAT vs ASML
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Applied Materials (AMAT) vs. ASML Holding (ASML) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AMAT (Applied Materials) is a diversified leader across wafer fabrication equipment, while ASML (ASML Holding) holds a near-monopoly in advanced lithography systems.
- Both stocks have posted triple-digit trailing-twelve-month gains on AI-driven demand, but their exposure, growth drivers, and risk profiles differ meaningfully.
- AMAT offers broader, faster-revenue-ramping leverage to advanced packaging and memory, while ASML carries higher valuation multiples and greater concentration in high-priced EUV tools.
- Recent price behavior shows AMAT consolidating below its 52-week high after margin concerns, whereas ASML trades near record levels ahead of quarterly results.
- Export-control and geopolitical risk is a shared theme, though it weighs more heavily on ASML given its larger China revenue exposure.
Introduction
Applied Materials and ASML Holding are two of the most consequential companies in the semiconductor supply chain, yet they occupy different rungs of the value chain. AMAT supplies a broad portfolio of deposition, etch, inspection, and advanced packaging tools, while ASML is the sole provider of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines essential to leading-edge chips. This stock comparison is most relevant to investors weighing diversified semiconductor-equipment exposure against a concentrated, high-moat leader, and to traders tracking how AI infrastructure spending is reshaping relative performance and market positioning across the sector.
AMAT Overview and Recent Performance
Applied Materials is a diversified semiconductor-equipment maker whose tools enable chipmakers to fabricate advanced logic, dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and 3D advanced packaging. In recent weeks the stock has consolidated well below its 52-week high after a powerful run, reflecting both strong fundamentals and investor sensitivity to valuation. Recent quarterly results showed record revenue of roughly $9.1 billion, up about 25% year over year, alongside record earnings per share (EPS).
Despite the beat, shares pulled back after the report as investors focused on flatter sequential gross-margin guidance and ramp costs. Sentiment has also been shaped by management's expectations that advanced packaging revenue will grow more than 70% in 2026, plus rising services revenue. The company benefits from broad diversification across multiple technology cycles, which reduces single-tool dependence but leaves it exposed to cyclical capital-expenditure (capex) swings.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding is the dominant supplier of lithography systems, holding roughly 90% market share in this critical process step and effectively a monopoly in EUV lithography, which is required for the most advanced AI and logic chips. Recent market activity has carried the stock near record territory, with shares up strongly year to date on rising demand for its tools and long order visibility stretching toward 2028.
Sentiment has been buoyed by analyst price-target increases and expectations for robust quarterly results, though the stock also carries a rich valuation at roughly 55–58 times earnings. Key watch items include net bookings, gross margins, and China exposure, which has been declining under export controls. Unlike AMAT, ASML's sales are inherently lumpy because individual high-NA (numerical aperture) EUV machines can cost hundreds of millions of dollars, making single-quarter swings less indicative of underlying demand.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two companies is breadth versus depth. AMAT competes across many equipment categories, giving it diversified revenue streams and rapid leverage to areas like advanced packaging, where spending is accelerating. ASML concentrates its fortunes in lithography, a position protected by extraordinary technological barriers and high switching costs, but one that ties its growth more directly to the adoption cadence of EUV and high-NA tools.
Growth drivers also differ. AMAT is benefiting from the memory and packaging build-out, including record DRAM demand, while ASML is levered to leading-edge logic and memory capacity expansions that take years to come online. On valuation, ASML trades at a premium multiple, reflecting its moat, while AMAT offers a lower forward valuation but faces margin-pressure scrutiny. Risk factors include export controls for both, though China exposure is proportionally larger for ASML, and cyclical capex sensitivity for AMAT.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor AMAT on trend consistency and breadth of near-term catalysts, given its accelerating revenue growth, strong advanced-packaging momentum, and lower relative valuation. However, ASML arguably offers the more durable structural moat and exceptional multi-year order visibility. A probabilistic assessment suggests AMAT currently presents the more balanced risk-reward profile, while ASML represents a higher-conviction, higher-multiple positioning for long-term AI-driven capacity expansion.
Disclaimer
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ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) and Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) are technology companies which serve the needs of semiconductor chip manufacturers with specialized equipment and diagnostic tools. ASML is based in the Netherlands while AMAT is based in California, but both maintain a significant global presence. ASML is the larger of the two, with an enterprise value of $353B compared to AMAT’s EV of $121B. ASML’s core products are lithography and metrology equipment designed for chip manufacturers. AMAT offers a wide array of products and services to chip manufacturers, and also has a displays segment which creates products for use in the manufacture of LED and OLED display screens for telephones, computers, and televisions. AMAT’s ROE appears stronger as of this writing, at 49%, against ASML’s 38%. AMAT also just experienced a quarterly earnings growth (yoy) over 100%, but ASML’s is also commendable at 38%.
AMAT | ASML | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 32 | 79 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 71 Overvalued | 84 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 44 | 25 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 25 | 20 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 9 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AMAT's Valuation (71) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ASML (84). This means that AMAT’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Profit vs Risk Rating (25) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as AMAT (44). This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to AMAT’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's SMR Rating (20) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as AMAT (25). This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to AMAT’s over the last 12 months.
AMAT's Price Growth Rating (38) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ASML (39). This means that AMAT’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
AMAT's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ASML (9). This means that AMAT’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
| AMAT | ASML | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 76% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 76% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 79% | 15 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 75% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 76% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AMAT’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while ASML’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- AMAT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AMAT’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ASML’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AMAT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ASML’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
AMAT (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -8.25% price change this week, while ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was -5.89% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -11.51%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.16%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.09%.
Reported Earning Dates
AMAT is expected to report earnings on Nov 12, 2026.
ASML is expected to report earnings on Oct 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-11.51% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
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AMAT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AMAT has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AMAT jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AMAT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAT | 100% | -6.69% | ||
| LRCX - AMAT | 91% Closely correlated | -2.73% | ||
| KLAC - AMAT | 87% Closely correlated | -3.22% | ||
| ONTO - AMAT | 84% Closely correlated | -3.72% | ||
| ASML - AMAT | 82% Closely correlated | -1.86% | ||
| NVMI - AMAT | 81% Closely correlated | +0.56% | ||
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ASML and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ASML has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ASML jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ASML | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | 100% | -1.86% | ||
| LRCX - ASML | 85% Closely correlated | -2.73% | ||
| AMAT - ASML | 82% Closely correlated | -6.69% | ||
| KLAC - ASML | 81% Closely correlated | -3.22% | ||
| NVMI - ASML | 79% Closely correlated | +0.56% | ||
| ONTO - ASML | 74% Closely correlated | -3.72% | ||
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