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AMAT vs ASML
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Applied Materials (AMAT) vs. ASML Holding (ASML) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both companies are core suppliers to semiconductor manufacturing, but they compete in different niches: AMAT dominates materials engineering (deposition, etch, and advanced packaging), while ASML holds a near-monopoly in advanced lithography.
- ASML recently posted record quarterly results and raised its full-year outlook, while AMAT pulled back after an investor-day presentation that omitted a near-term equipment-spending forecast.
- Relative performance diverged in recent weeks: ASML remains near record territory with strong multiyear order visibility, while AMAT entered its longest losing streak in years.
- Valuation is a key trade-off: ASML trades at a premium price-to-earnings multiple, whereas AMAT's retreat has moderated its valuation.
- Both names are tied to the same AI infrastructure investment cycle, but their risk profiles differ around China exposure, capacity constraints, and product mix.
Introduction
Applied Materials and ASML Holding are two of the most important companies in the global semiconductor supply chain, and their shares are frequently watched together as a gauge of spending on chipmaking equipment. This stock comparison is relevant to investors and traders who want to understand how market positioning, growth drivers, and sentiment differ between a broad-based equipment supplier and a specialist with a near-monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography. Because both stocks move with the same AI-driven capital-expenditure cycle, comparing their relative performance and risk profiles can help clarify where momentum, stability, and valuation currently stand.
AMAT Overview and Recent Performance
Applied Materials is the market leader in materials engineering solutions, supplying deposition, etch, planarization, metrology, and advanced packaging tools used across virtually every semiconductor fab. Its diversified portfolio spans leading-edge logic, DRAM (dynamic random-access memory), and NAND flash, giving it broad exposure to the wafer fab equipment (WFE) market — the machinery used to build chips.
In recent weeks, AMAT's shares came under pressure. The company unveiled a new $5 billion research center and presented longer-term 2030 targets, including a non-GAAP (non-generally accepted accounting principles) gross margin of roughly 54% and an operating margin of about 40%. However, management declined to provide a specific near-term WFE spending forecast, which disappointed investors already sensitive to the pace of AI-related capital spending. The stock subsequently declined, entering its longest losing streak since 2018 and falling well below its mid-year all-time high, even as it remained sharply higher on a year-over-year basis. Analysts have trimmed some price targets while retaining broadly constructive ratings.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding is the world's leading supplier of lithography systems and the only company producing EUV machines required to manufacture the most advanced chips. Its equipment is a critical bottleneck in the AI buildout, and its multi-quarter order book makes it a widely followed indicator of semiconductor capital spending.
In its most recent quarter, ASML reported record net sales and a roughly 70% sequential jump in net profit, with gross margin expanding well above year-ago levels. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance and said customer demand now exceeds its planned supply through 2028, with some customers expressing interest in orders extending into 2029 and 2030. Despite these strong results, the stock pulled back modestly, reflecting profit-taking and concerns that results did not fully clear already-elevated expectations. Over the past year, ASML shares have risen sharply, supported by accelerating EUV demand and a growing installed-base services business.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks is business model breadth versus concentration. AMAT operates across a wide range of process steps and customer segments, which spreads its revenue across foundry, logic, memory, and packaging. ASML's strength is more concentrated but also more defensible: its EUV monopoly gives it pricing power and exceptional multiyear visibility that few equipment makers can match.
Growth drivers also differ. AMAT's outlook leans on advanced packaging, DRAM transitions, and services growth, while ASML's momentum is powered by EUV unit shipments and productivity upgrades on its installed base. In terms of recent momentum, ASML's trend has been steadier, backed by firm demand signals, whereas AMAT has been more volatile as investors weigh its broader WFE exposure against the timing of AI-related orders.
Risk factors diverge as well. ASML faces a gradual decline in China revenue as export controls and domestic competition take effect, plus the risk of overbuilding capacity if AI spending cools. AMAT carries its own China exposure and near-term uncertainty around the pace of fab construction. On valuation, ASML trades at a notably richer earnings multiple, while AMAT's recent pullback leaves it relatively less expensive on a forward basis.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings momentum, and order visibility, Tickeron's AI would likely favor ASML in the current environment. The company's record results, upwardly revised guidance, and demand that exceeds planned supply through 2028 signal a more durable and predictable earnings trajectory. AMAT's longer-term story remains strong, but its recent trend deterioration and the uncertainty introduced by its investor-day messaging reduce its near-term relative positioning. This is a probabilistic assessment of relative strength and stability rather than a definitive forecast, and it can shift as new price and fundamentals data emerge.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) and Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) are technology companies which serve the needs of semiconductor chip manufacturers with specialized equipment and diagnostic tools. ASML is based in the Netherlands while AMAT is based in California, but both maintain a significant global presence. ASML is the larger of the two, with an enterprise value of $353B compared to AMAT’s EV of $121B. ASML’s core products are lithography and metrology equipment designed for chip manufacturers. AMAT offers a wide array of products and services to chip manufacturers, and also has a displays segment which creates products for use in the manufacture of LED and OLED display screens for telephones, computers, and televisions. AMAT’s ROE appears stronger as of this writing, at 49%, against ASML’s 38%. AMAT also just experienced a quarterly earnings growth (yoy) over 100%, but ASML’s is also commendable at 38%.
AMAT in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026
AMAT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 30 of 35 cases where AMAT's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AMAT's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 24 of 29 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 45 of 56 cases where AMAT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Following a +6.50% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMAT advanced for three days, in 253 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AMAT as a result. In 64 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AMAT turned negative on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 80%.
AMAT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AMAT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMAT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator for AMAT entered a downward trend on October 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AMAT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 76 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.599) is normal, around the industry mean (6.452). P/E Ratio (32.066) is within average values for comparable stocks, (89.445). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.967) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.764) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
ASML's RSI Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for ASML moved out of oversold territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 24 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 22 of the 24 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +2.45% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ASML advanced for three days, in 227 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
ASML may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 44 of 60 cases where ASML's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ASML as a result. In 69 of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ASML turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 74%.
ASML moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ASML crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ASML declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator for ASML entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ASML’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ASML's P/B Ratio (26.858) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (6.211). P/E Ratio (59.990) is within average values for comparable stocks, (81.436). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.086) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (15.175) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
AMAT | ASML | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 10 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 76 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 54 | 26 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 25 | 20 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 22 | 8 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AMAT's Valuation (76) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ASML (88). This means that AMAT’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Profit vs Risk Rating (26) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as AMAT (54). This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to AMAT’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's SMR Rating (20) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as AMAT (25). This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to AMAT’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Price Growth Rating (52) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as AMAT (60). This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to AMAT’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's P/E Growth Rating (8) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as AMAT (22). This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to AMAT’s over the last 12 months.
| AMAT | ASML | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 83% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 80% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 1 day ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 80% | 1 day ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 77% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 80% | 5 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 66% | 1 day ago 69% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 86% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 1 day ago 60% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AMAT’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while ASML’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- AMAT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AMAT’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ASML’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AMAT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- ASML’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
Price Growth
AMAT (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а +3.41% price change this week, while ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was -3.94% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -5.35%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -29.97%, and the average quarterly price growth was -35.69%.
Reported Earning Dates
AMAT is expected to report earnings on Nov 12, 2026.
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-5.35% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
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AMAT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AMAT has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AMAT jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AMAT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAT | 100% | -7.49% | ||
| LRCX - AMAT | 91% Closely correlated | -6.01% | ||
| KLAC - AMAT | 88% Closely correlated | -5.69% | ||
| ONTO - AMAT | 84% Closely correlated | -9.16% | ||
| ASML - AMAT | 82% Closely correlated | -6.55% | ||
| NVMI - AMAT | 81% Closely correlated | -6.68% | ||
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