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LRCX vs NVMI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Lam Research (LRCX) vs. Nova Ltd. (NVMI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Lam Research (LRCX) and Nova Ltd. (NVMI) are both semiconductor equipment suppliers leveraged to artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced memory demand, but they operate in different parts of the chip-making process.
- Lam Research has delivered strong fiscal-year growth and robust shareholder returns, while Nova has posted record revenue and market-share gains in process-control metrology.
- Recent weeks brought a broad selloff in semiconductor equipment names, with LRCX logging an unusually long daily losing streak and NVMI trading well below its 52-week high.
- Scale, margin profile, valuation, and drawdown depth are key contrasts in this stock comparison.
Introduction
Investors tracking the semiconductor supply chain often compare equipment makers to gauge how AI-driven capital spending is filtering through the industry. Lam Research and Nova Ltd. are two such names, but they play different roles: Lam Research sells the etching and deposition tools used to build wafers, while Nova supplies metrology systems that measure and control the fabrication process. This comparison is relevant for traders and investors evaluating relative performance, market positioning, and growth drivers across the semiconductor equipment sector, especially against a backdrop of rising AI-spending concerns and elevated valuations.
LRCX Overview and Recent Performance
Lam Research Corporation is a global supplier of wafer fabrication equipment and services, focused primarily on etch and deposition tools used to manufacture memory and logic chips. The company benefits directly from AI-driven demand, advanced memory (including DRAM and high-bandwidth memory), and expanding wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) spending, which management recently estimated near $140 billion for 2026.
Fundamentally, Lam Research has been performing well. In its fiscal fourth quarter of 2026, revenue rose roughly 30% year over year to $6.72 billion, with non-GAAP operating margin expanding to 38.4%. The company returned more than $5.12 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2026 through buybacks and dividends, and raised its quarterly dividend by 27%. Despite this strength, recent market activity has been challenging: the stock has pulled back sharply as AI-spending worries rippled across the chip-equipment group, briefly putting shares on pace for one of their longest daily losing streaks on record. Even after the decline, LRCX remains up substantially on a year-to-date basis.
NVMI Overview and Recent Performance
Nova Ltd. is an Israel-based innovator in material, optical, and chemical metrology for advanced process control in semiconductor manufacturing. Its systems help chipmakers improve yields and accelerate time to market across leading-edge logic, memory, and advanced packaging. Nova has reported consecutive record quarters, with second-quarter 2026 revenue of roughly $255 million, up 16% year over year, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.51. The company also grew its share of the metrology market by about 400 basis points in 2025, becoming the second-largest vendor in its category.
Nova's growth is tied to advanced DRAM, gate-all-around (GAA) transistor adoption, and hybrid bonding in advanced packaging. However, its stock has been more volatile than its fundamentals suggest. After reaching a 52-week high above $600, NVMI has retraced significantly in recent months and now trades closer to its 52-week low, with a beta near 1.78 indicating higher-than-market volatility. Several analysts have trimmed price targets in recent weeks while retaining mostly constructive ratings.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most clearly in scale and role. Lam Research is a much larger enterprise, with fiscal 2026 revenue expected near $34.9 billion, giving it broad exposure across memory, foundry, and logic customers worldwide. Nova is far smaller, with annual revenue approaching $1 billion, but it commands a higher gross margin profile in the mid-50% range and is concentrated in the higher-growth metrology and process-control niche.
Growth drivers also diverge. Lam Research leans on etch and deposition intensity plus customer-support services, and it returns significant cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Nova, by contrast, is reinvesting heavily in research and development while gaining share in fast-growing areas such as advanced packaging and hybrid bonding. On momentum and sentiment, the recent period has favored Lam Research: it remains sharply higher year to date despite its pullback, while Nova has erased its gains and sits near flat on a year-to-date basis after a deep drawdown from its peak. Both carry elevated valuation multiples relative to the broader semiconductor sector, which adds sensitivity to any shift in AI-spending expectations.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative positioning, and capital-return discipline, Tickeron's AI would likely favor Lam Research in the current environment. LRCX has combined strong earnings growth with sustained shareholder returns and remains in positive territory year to date, even amid sector-wide selling. Nova's record results and market-share gains are compelling, but its deeper drawdown, higher beta, and heavier analyst estimate revisions suggest comparatively less trend stability at present. The verdict is probabilistic rather than certain: an AI system would weigh Nova's faster growth niche against Lam Research's steadier momentum and broader earnings base, and current signals tilt modestly toward Lam Research.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is LRCX is a StrongBuy and NVMI is a Hold.
LRCX's RSI Indicator stays in oversold zone for 2 days
It is expected that a price bounce should occur soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +5.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LRCX advanced for three days, in 272 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
LRCX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on LRCX as a result. In 53 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for LRCX turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 57 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 39 of the 57 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 68%.
LRCX moved below its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for LRCX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LRCX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Aroon Indicator for LRCX entered a downward trend on November 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LRCX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: LRCX's P/B Ratio (20.114) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (5.670). P/E Ratio (34.618) is within average values for comparable stocks, (68.795). LRCX's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.463) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (14.620) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
Momentum Indicator for NVMI turns positive, indicating new upward trend
NVMI saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on November 06, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 91 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 79 of the 91 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NVMI's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 14 of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +5.81% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVMI advanced for three days, in 249 of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
NVMI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NVMI turned negative on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 78%.
NVMI moved below its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NVMI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVMI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Aroon Indicator for NVMI entered a downward trend on November 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 72 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.798) is normal, around the industry mean (5.670). P/E Ratio (36.374) is within average values for comparable stocks, (68.795). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.670) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (12.300) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. NVMI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
LRCX | NVMI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 84 Overvalued | 72 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 57 | 57 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 18 | 45 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | 75 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 58 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVMI's Valuation (72) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as LRCX (84). This means that NVMI’s stock grew similarly to LRCX’s over the last 12 months.
NVMI's Profit vs Risk Rating (57) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as LRCX (57). This means that NVMI’s stock grew similarly to LRCX’s over the last 12 months.
LRCX's SMR Rating (18) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NVMI (45). This means that LRCX’s stock grew similarly to NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
LRCX's Price Growth Rating (65) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NVMI (75). This means that LRCX’s stock grew similarly to NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
LRCX's P/E Growth Rating (51) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NVMI (58). This means that LRCX’s stock grew similarly to NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
| LRCX | NVMI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 89% | 3 days ago 64% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 85% | 3 days ago 80% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 87% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 79% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 84% | 12 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 78% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 73% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LRCX’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while NVMI’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- LRCX’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NVMI’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LRCX’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVMI’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LRCX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- NVMI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
LRCX (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -16.17% price change this week, while NVMI (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was +0.30% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -9.39%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -31.05%, and the average quarterly price growth was -40.59%.
Reported Earning Dates
LRCX is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
NVMI is expected to report earnings on Feb 18, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-9.39% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
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LRCX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LRCX has been closely correlated with AMAT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 92% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LRCX jumps, then AMAT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To LRCX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LRCX | 100% | +8.23% | ||
| AMAT - LRCX | 92% Closely correlated | +4.22% | ||
| KLAC - LRCX | 88% Closely correlated | +6.69% | ||
| ASML - LRCX | 85% Closely correlated | +5.02% | ||
| NVMI - LRCX | 84% Closely correlated | +11.73% | ||
| TER - LRCX | 81% Closely correlated | +2.57% | ||
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NVMI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVMI has been closely correlated with KLAC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVMI jumps, then KLAC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NVMI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVMI | 100% | +11.73% | ||
| KLAC - NVMI | 84% Closely correlated | +6.69% | ||
| LRCX - NVMI | 83% Closely correlated | +8.23% | ||
| ONTO - NVMI | 81% Closely correlated | +11.08% | ||
| AMAT - NVMI | 80% Closely correlated | +4.22% | ||
| CAMT - NVMI | 80% Closely correlated | +5.58% | ||
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