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AMCR vs PKG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Amcor (AMCR) vs. Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Amcor (AMCR) is a diversified global consumer-packaging leader that recently completed its transformative combination with Berry Global, sharply lifting sales and margins while adding a sizable debt burden.
- Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is a North American containerboard and corrugated-packaging producer benefiting from record volumes and a tight market following its Greif acquisition.
- AMCR's relative performance has been driven by integration synergies and margin expansion, tempered by lowered near-term free cash flow guidance and elevated net debt.
- PKG shows strong shipment momentum and announced price increases, offset by near-term cost headwinds in freight, fiber, and maintenance.
- The two stocks share a sector but differ sharply in geographic reach, product mix, and the cyclicality of their end markets.
Introduction
Both AMCR and PKG operate in the packaging industry, yet they serve different customers, regions, and demand cycles. This stock comparison examines how their relative performance and market positioning diverge in the current environment. Investors weighing a diversified global packaging franchise against a focused North American corrugated leader may find the contrast instructive. The analysis covers recent momentum, growth drivers, risk factors, and how each name stacks up as a candidate for algorithmic and AI-assisted trading strategies.
AMCR Overview and Recent Performance
Amcor plc is a global developer and producer of flexible and rigid consumer packaging, generating roughly $23 billion in annual sales across approximately 400 locations in more than 40 countries. The company's recent trajectory has been dominated by its combination with Berry Global, completed in 2025, which transformed its scale and product breadth.
Recent quarters have highlighted accelerating integration execution. Amcor reported roughly $285 million in acquisition synergies for fiscal 2026, ahead of its initial year-one target, and delivered full-year adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of about $4.02, up 13% year over year. Volumes turned modestly positive in its latest quarter after a period of softness, and margins expanded as cost and productivity initiatives took hold. However, the company lowered its near-term free cash flow guidance, citing a decision to hold higher inventory amid Middle East supply-chain considerations, and it continues to carry elevated net debt from the acquisition. Recent weeks have shown softer share-price momentum following a stronger stretch, with attention turning to ongoing divestitures of non-core businesses.
PKG Overview and Recent Performance
Packaging Corporation of America is one of the largest U.S. producers of containerboard and corrugated packaging, operating through its Packaging and Paper segments and serving food and beverage, agriculture, and e-commerce customers. Its recent activity has been defined by the integration of the acquired Greif containerboard business and unusually strong demand for corrugated products.
Recent quarters showed record corrugated shipments, with total shipments rising more than 20% year over year and the legacy business setting all-time shipment records. Net sales climbed into the $2.5 billion range, and management described the containerboard market as "tight," supporting announced price increases that were expected to roll through subsequent quarters. Earnings, however, faced near-term pressure from higher freight, recycled fiber, and maintenance costs, and the company recorded facility-closure and restructuring charges tied to its Wallula mill. The stock has advanced strongly in recent market activity, outperforming the broader market on a year-to-date basis, even as some cost headwinds and integration work tempered reported profitability.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies diverge most sharply in scope and exposure. AMCR operates a globally diversified portfolio spanning flexible and rigid packaging, with a heavier tilt toward consumer staples, healthcare, and beauty categories, which can lend relative stability but also subjects it to foreign-exchange and integration complexity. PKG is more concentrated in North American containerboard and corrugated products, a business closely tied to industrial production and e-commerce volumes, making it more cyclical and more directly leveraged to containerboard pricing.
On growth drivers, AMCR's near-term story centers on synergy capture, portfolio optimization, and margin expansion, while PKG's momentum reflects volume strength, tight market conditions, and realized price increases. On risk, AMCR carries a larger debt load and faces execution risk across a complex global integration, whereas PKG contends with input-cost inflation, maintenance outages, and cyclical demand swings. Market sentiment has favored PKG's cleaner momentum in recent weeks, while AMCR's valuation has been debated against its synergy runway.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, catalyst visibility, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward PKG in the current environment. Its combination of record corrugated volumes, a tight pricing backdrop, and comparatively cleaner North American exposure offers a more direct and consistent trend than AMCR's integration-heavy narrative. That said, AMCR retains a compelling synergy-driven earnings story that could support a favorable relative profile over a longer horizon. The assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive and reflects the current balance of momentum, stability, and identifiable catalysts across the two names.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AMCR is a StrongBuy and PKG is a Hold.
AMCR in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026
AMCR moved above its 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 26 of 43 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AMCR as a result. In 55 of 97 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AMCR just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where AMCR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 54 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
Following a +3.46% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMCR advanced for three days, in 127 of 286 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 44%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMCR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
AMCR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for AMCR entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. AMCR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 58 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.815) is normal, around the industry mean (1.311). P/E Ratio (19.364) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.417). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.991) is also within normal values, averaging (1.023). Dividend Yield (0.056) settles around the average of (0.033) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.828) is also within normal values, averaging (1.259).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AMCR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock worse than average.
PKG in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
PKG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 27 of 37 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PKG as a result. In 70 of 99 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PKG just turned positive on October 13, 2026. Looking at past instances where PKG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Following a +4.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PKG advanced for three days, in 198 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PKG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
PKG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for PKG entered a downward trend on September 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. PKG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 77 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.757) is normal, around the industry mean (1.311). P/E Ratio (32.202) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.417). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.507) is also within normal values, averaging (1.023). Dividend Yield (0.024) settles around the average of (0.033) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.168) is also within normal values, averaging (1.259).
AMCR | PKG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 41 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 58 Fair valued | 77 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 22 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 73 | 57 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 22 | 32 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 72 | 9 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AMCR's Valuation (58) in the null industry is in the same range as PKG (77) in the Containers Or Packaging industry. This means that AMCR’s stock grew similarly to PKG’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's Profit vs Risk Rating (22) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is significantly better than the same rating for AMCR (100) in the null industry. This means that PKG’s stock grew significantly faster than AMCR’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's SMR Rating (57) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as AMCR (73) in the null industry. This means that PKG’s stock grew similarly to AMCR’s over the last 12 months.
AMCR's Price Growth Rating (22) in the null industry is in the same range as PKG (32) in the Containers Or Packaging industry. This means that AMCR’s stock grew similarly to PKG’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AMCR (72) in the null industry. This means that PKG’s stock grew somewhat faster than AMCR’s over the last 12 months.
| AMCR | PKG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 50% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 56% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 58% | 23 days ago 45% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 2 days ago 48% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AMCR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while PKG’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- AMCR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PKG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AMCR’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PKG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AMCR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PKG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AMCR (@Containers/Packaging) experienced а +5.81% price change this week, while PKG (@Containers/Packaging) price change was +7.03% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Containers/Packaging industry was +2.37%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.81%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.22%.
Reported Earning Dates
AMCR is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
PKG is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Containers/Packaging (+2.37% weekly)The containers/packing sector includes companies that manufacture containers (like plastic and aluminum food containers, glass bottles, metal cans, cardboard, storage and waste bags, giftwraps etc.) and provide packing services. Food-and-beverage and household products are major markets for this business. Several companies in this industry cater to international markets in addition to serving domestic customers. Consumer spending habits could potentially affect this industry’s performance. Some products, that use oil-based materials as inputs, are likely to see their costs of production get impacted (to some extent) by energy price movements. The ever-expanding e-commerce market has only supercharged the amount/frequency of goods shipped domestically and across borders, thereby creating ample potential opportunities for containers and packaging businesses. Ball Corporation, International Paper Company, Amcor Plc and Packaging Corporation of America are some of the largest U.S. companies in this industry.
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AMCR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AMCR has been closely correlated with SW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AMCR jumps, then SW could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AMCR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMCR | 100% | +2.23% | ||
| SW - AMCR | 67% Closely correlated | +2.34% | ||
| AVY - AMCR | 63% Loosely correlated | +3.14% | ||
| CCK - AMCR | 61% Loosely correlated | +2.62% | ||
| GEF - AMCR | 61% Loosely correlated | +1.50% | ||
| IP - AMCR | 60% Loosely correlated | +0.15% | ||
More | ||||
PKG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PKG has been closely correlated with SW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PKG jumps, then SW could also see price increases.