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AMD vs NVDA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) vs. NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Tickeron AI Verdict: NVIDIA (NVDA) — the data-driven assessment currently favors NVDA over AMD, based on trend consistency, stability, and relative market positioning.
- NVIDIA remains the dominant supplier of AI (artificial intelligence) accelerators with roughly 80% market share and gross margins near 75%, while AMD is a fast-growing "second source" now scaling its Instinct GPUs and Helios rack-scale systems.
- In the recent semiconductor selloff, NVDA fell about 16% from its peak while AMD dropped roughly 23%, reflecting AMD's higher volatility relative to NVIDIA's more established franchise.
- AMD's data center revenue roughly doubled year over year in its latest reported quarter, but its ramp and valuation carry more swing than NVIDIA's entrenched software ecosystem.
- For more detail, explore AMD Major News and AMD Today's Price Move, as well as NVDA Major News and NVDA Today's Price Move.
- For systematic trading ideas, explore the curated Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and NVIDIA (NVDA) are two of the most closely watched names in the semiconductor industry, and together they frame the central debate in the AI hardware trade. NVIDIA is the incumbent leader in AI accelerators, while AMD is the fastest-growing challenger positioning itself as a lower-cost alternative. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors weighing dominant market share and profitability against faster growth and a potentially cheaper valuation. Because the two companies are so tightly linked to the same AI infrastructure spending cycle, understanding their relative performance, momentum, and risk profiles is essential for anyone building exposure to the sector.
AMD Overview and Recent Performance
Advanced Micro Devices designs central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs) used across data centers, PCs, gaming, and embedded systems. In recent quarters, its data center segment has become the growth engine, reaching a record $6.7 billion in its latest reported quarter — up more than 100% year over year — and now representing roughly 58% of total revenue. Management guided to approximately $13 billion in total revenue for the following quarter, implying about 41% growth, with non-GAAP gross margin near 56%. The company's momentum is anchored by multi-gigawatt commitments from major AI customers including OpenAI, Meta, and Anthropic, as well as the ramp of its Instinct MI350 and upcoming MI400/MI450 accelerators and Helios rack-scale platform.
Despite this operational strength, sentiment toward AMD has been volatile in recent market activity. The stock crossed a $1 trillion market capitalization in September 2026, but subsequently pulled back sharply as concerns about AI spending, debt levels at neocloud providers, and PC demand rippled through the sector. In recent weeks, the shares fell roughly 23% from their peak, a steeper drawdown than the broader chip complex and a reminder that the market is now demanding visible execution and margin discipline alongside rapid growth.
NVDA Overview and Recent Performance
NVIDIA is the dominant provider of AI accelerators and the associated CUDA software ecosystem, holding roughly 80% of the AI chip market. Its data center business has grown so large that it now accounts for more than 90% of total revenue, and the company reported quarterly revenue above $81 billion with net income that more than tripled year over year. Gross margins remain near 75%, well above most peers, reflecting strong pricing power. Management has guided for continued sequential growth, pointing to a roughly $1 trillion cumulative data center revenue opportunity through 2027.
Still, NVDA has not been immune to the sector's recent repricing. The stock is down about 16% from its peak, a smaller decline than AMD's, but the largest in dollar terms among chipmakers during the selloff. Key overhangs include customer concentration among a handful of hyperscale buyers, rising competition from in-house custom silicon at cloud providers, and export restrictions that limit China revenue. While demand signals remain robust, investors are increasingly focused on whether AI capital spending converts into durable free cash flow and returns.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies represent contrasting bets on the same AI infrastructure theme. NVIDIA's business model is built around a proprietary hardware-plus-software stack (CUDA) that creates high switching costs and supports industry-leading margins. AMD, by contrast, competes partly on price and open-source software (ROCm), targeting inference workloads and customers seeking to diversify away from a single supplier.
On growth, AMD is expanding from a smaller base, with data center revenue roughly doubling year over year and guidance calling for the segment to more than double again in 2027. NVIDIA is growing from a much larger base, with data center revenue in the tens of billions per quarter and a clear path toward continued sequential increases. In terms of stability, NVIDIA's franchise, margins, and software moat have so far translated into a shallower drawdown during the recent volatility, while AMD's higher beta (sensitivity to market swings) has produced larger moves in both directions.
Risk factors also differ. NVIDIA faces concentration risk among a few hyperscale customers and the threat of custom silicon; AMD faces execution risk around its Helios ramp, supply constraints on advanced packaging and high-bandwidth memory, and margin pressure as lower-margin AI accelerators grow as a share of revenue. Sector exposure is similar, but market sentiment currently assigns NVIDIA the "quality and dominance" premium while treating AMD as the higher-growth, higher-volatility challenger.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI-driven assessment would likely favor NVDA over AMD in the current environment. NVIDIA's combination of dominant market share, near-75% gross margins, entrenched software ecosystem, and comparatively shallower drawdown suggests a more consistent and resilient trend profile. AMD offers a compelling growth narrative and meaningful multi-year commitments from anchor customers, but its higher volatility and heavier reliance on flawless execution introduce more variability into its near-term trend signal. This reflects a probabilistic reading of relative positioning rather than a definitive prediction, and the balance between the two names can shift as new earnings data and catalysts emerge.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AMD is a StrongBuy and NVDA is a Hold.
AMD's RSI Indicator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for AMD moved out of oversold territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 30 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 28 of the 30 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 12, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AMD as a result. In 62 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AMD just turned positive on November 11, 2026. Looking at past instances where AMD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
AMD moved above its 50-day moving average on November 11, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +13.60% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMD advanced for three days, in 239 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
AMD may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for AMD crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator for AMD entered a downward trend on November 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AMD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 89 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (10.905) is normal, around the industry mean (5.443). P/E Ratio (113.681) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.640). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.619) is also within normal values, averaging (3.803). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (20.450) is also within normal values, averaging (46.468).
NVDA in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026
The 10-day moving average for NVDA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NVDA as a result. In 54 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NVDA turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 67%.
NVDA moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVDA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator for NVDA entered a downward trend on November 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +3.31% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVDA advanced for three days, in 295 of 355 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
NVDA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NVDA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 79 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: NVDA's P/B Ratio (19.682) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (5.443). P/E Ratio (23.477) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.640). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.478) is also within normal values, averaging (3.803). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (17.212) is also within normal values, averaging (46.468).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
AMD | NVDA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 36 | 51 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 89 Overvalued | 79 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 20 | 19 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 70 | 13 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 64 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | 92 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVDA's Valuation (79) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as AMD (89). This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to AMD’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's Profit vs Risk Rating (19) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as AMD (20). This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to AMD’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's SMR Rating (13) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AMD (70). This means that NVDA’s stock grew somewhat faster than AMD’s over the last 12 months.
AMD's Price Growth Rating (38) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NVDA (64). This means that AMD’s stock grew similarly to NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
AMD's P/E Growth Rating (65) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NVDA (92). This means that AMD’s stock grew similarly to NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
| AMD | NVDA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 85% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 84% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | 3 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 18 days ago 83% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 69% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 89% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 81% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AMD’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while NVDA’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AMD’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NVDA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AMD’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVDA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AMD’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NVDA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AMD (@Semiconductors) experienced а +44.73% price change this week, while NVDA (@Semiconductors) price change was -8.49% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +19.11%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -12.43%, and the average quarterly price growth was -26.70%.
Reported Earning Dates
AMD is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
NVDA is expected to report earnings on Nov 17, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+19.11% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
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AMD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AMD has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AMD jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AMD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | 100% | +5.86% | ||
| LRCX - AMD | 75% Closely correlated | -0.89% | ||
| KLAC - AMD | 71% Closely correlated | -2.30% | ||
| FORM - AMD | 71% Closely correlated | -3.61% | ||
| ENTG - AMD | 71% Closely correlated | -0.65% | ||
| AMAT - AMD | 70% Closely correlated | -3.58% | ||
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