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AMD vs NVDA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) vs. NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AMD has been the stronger recent momentum story, gaining roughly 140% year-to-date, while NVDA has advanced at a more moderate pace.
- NVDA remains far larger by market capitalization (around $5.2 trillion versus AMD's roughly $900 billion) and dominates AI accelerator (specialized AI chip) revenue.
- AMD's data center segment is now its primary growth engine, with revenue more than doubling in recent quarters and major commitments from hyperscale customers.
- NVDA's valuation is notably lower on a price-to-earnings (P/E) basis, while AMD trades at a higher multiple reflecting elevated growth expectations.
- Both stocks carry "Strong Buy" consensus ratings, but their risk profiles differ around customer concentration, supply constraints, and competitive positioning.
Introduction
Advanced Micro Devices and NVIDIA are two of the most closely watched semiconductor companies in the current artificial intelligence (AI) investment cycle. Both design the chips powering modern data centers, yet they occupy different positions in that market: NVIDIA is the established leader in AI accelerators, while AMD has emerged as the most credible challenger while also commanding a strong franchise in central processing units (CPUs, the general-purpose "brains" of computers). This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors seeking to understand how relative performance, growth drivers, and market positioning differ between a dominant incumbent and a fast-scaling rival operating in the same secular trend.
AMD Overview and Recent Performance
Advanced Micro Devices has undergone a meaningful shift in recent quarters, with its data center business overtaking PC and gaming segments as the largest driver of revenue and profit. In recent market activity, the stock has been one of the standout performers among large-cap semiconductors, climbing roughly 140% year-to-date and briefly touching record highs before pulling back. This advance reflects accelerating AI-related demand and a series of high-profile customer agreements, including multi-gigawatt deployment commitments for its Instinct graphics processing units (GPUs, chips specialized for parallel computing) and early traction for its Helios rack-scale systems.
Fundamentals have supported the move. Quarterly revenue grew at a strong double-digit pace year over year, with data center sales more than doubling in the most recent reported quarter. Management has guided for continued sequential growth, and analysts have responded with a "Strong Buy" consensus and upward price-target revisions. Sentiment has been shaped by the perception that the AI opportunity is broad enough to accommodate multiple suppliers, as well as by AMD's dual strength in both CPUs and accelerators. However, the stock trades at a substantially higher trailing earnings multiple than NVIDIA, meaning expectations are elevated and sensitivity to any growth disappointment is correspondingly high.
NVDA Overview and Recent Performance
NVIDIA Corporation remains the world's largest company by market capitalization, a position built on its dominance of the AI accelerator market and its CUDA software ecosystem, which locks customers into its platform. Recent financial results have been exceptional: quarterly revenue approached record levels with growth of roughly 85% to over 100% year over year, and data center sales rose at an even faster clip. Management has guided for further acceleration, and the company has returned capital to shareholders through a larger dividend and an expanded share repurchase program.
Despite these results, NVDA's recent stock behavior has been more subdued. Shares have pulled back from all-time highs and declined modestly over the past month, even as demand signals have remained strong. Sentiment has been tempered by several factors: heavy customer concentration among a small number of hyperscale buyers, large forward supply commitments tied to future demand, and ongoing U.S. export restrictions that have essentially paused data center sales to China. Recent reports of a large chip order from Chinese technology firms highlight persistent demand but also supply constraints. In contrast to AMD, NVDA trades at a comparatively lower P/E ratio, reflecting a market that appears to be pricing in more measured expectations for the incumbent.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two companies is one of incumbent versus challenger. NVDA's advantage lies in scale, an entrenched software ecosystem, and a commanding share of AI accelerator revenue; its data center business alone generates multiples of AMD's entire revenue base. AMD's appeal rests on being a credible second source in accelerators while also holding a strong position in server CPUs, a diversification NVDA lacks. This gives AMD multiple demand channels but also means it competes on two fronts simultaneously.
Growth dynamics also differ. AMD is growing from a smaller base and has posted sharper relative acceleration, which helps justify its higher multiple. NVDA is growing from an enormous base yet still expanding at a rapid rate, a rare combination that keeps it a benchmark for the sector. On risk, NVDA faces greater exposure to customer concentration and export policy, while AMD carries valuation risk and dependency on the successful ramp of newer products such as its Helios systems. Recent momentum has favored AMD, but NVDA's trend consistency and profitability remain exceptionally strong.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward NVDA as the steadier positioning at present, given its superior trend consistency, unmatched profitability, and a valuation that leaves more room for error. At the same time, AMD displays stronger recent momentum and higher relative growth, which could appeal to AI strategies oriented toward trend acceleration and catalysts. The appropriate framing is probabilistic rather than definitive: the AI verdict is not a fixed preference but a signal that shifts as momentum, volatility, and positioning data evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AMD is a Hold and NVDA is a StrongBuy.
Momentum Indicator for AMD turns negative, indicating new downward trend
AMD saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 08, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 79 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 64 of the 79 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for AMD moved out of overbought territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 31 of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AMD turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 78%.
AMD moved below its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The 10-day moving average for AMD crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 17, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +3.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMD advanced for three days, in 244 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
AMD may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 193 of 248 cases where AMD Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 78%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AMD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 90 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (12.550) is normal, around the industry mean (6.017). P/E Ratio (130.833) is within average values for comparable stocks, (20.775). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.619) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (20.450) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
Aroon Indicator for NVDA shows an upward move is likely
NVDA's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on October 15, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 335 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 294 of the 335 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.26% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVDA advanced for three days, in 296 of 356 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
NVDA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for NVDA moved out of overbought territory on October 07, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 31 of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 70%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NVDA as a result. In 57 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NVDA turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 68%.
NVDA moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NVDA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVDA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NVDA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 81 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: NVDA's P/B Ratio (22.246) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (6.017). P/E Ratio (26.536) is within average values for comparable stocks, (20.775). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.478) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (17.212) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
AMD | NVDA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 71 | 77 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 90 Overvalued | 81 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 6 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 69 | 13 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 88 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVDA's Valuation (81) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as AMD (90). This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to AMD’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as AMD (11). This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to AMD’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's SMR Rating (13) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AMD (69). This means that NVDA’s stock grew somewhat faster than AMD’s over the last 12 months.
AMD's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NVDA (52). This means that AMD’s stock grew similarly to NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
AMD's P/E Growth Rating (52) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NVDA (88). This means that AMD’s stock grew somewhat faster than NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
| AMD | NVDA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 84% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 76% | 19 days ago 83% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 69% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 88% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AMD’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while NVDA’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AMD’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NVDA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AMD’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVDA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AMD’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- NVDA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AMD (@Semiconductors) experienced а -2.26% price change this week, while NVDA (@Semiconductors) price change was -1.48% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was -3.52%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -18.49%, and the average quarterly price growth was -11.79%.
Reported Earning Dates
AMD is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
NVDA is expected to report earnings on Nov 18, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (-3.52% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
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AMD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AMD has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AMD jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AMD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | 100% | +1.74% | ||
| LRCX - AMD | 75% Closely correlated | -0.02% | ||
| KLAC - AMD | 71% Closely correlated | -1.50% | ||
| FORM - AMD | 71% Closely correlated | +3.66% | ||
| ENTG - AMD | 71% Closely correlated | +4.84% | ||
| AMAT - AMD | 70% Closely correlated | +0.44% | ||
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