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APP vs HUBS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AppLovin (APP) vs. HubSpot (HUBS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both APP and HUBS have been sold off sharply over the past year amid AI-disruption fears, but their businesses and risk profiles differ significantly.
- APP (AppLovin) is a pure-play adtech company with exceptional profitability and rapid revenue growth, now trading at a much lower earnings multiple after its decline.
- HUBS (HubSpot) is a mid-market CRM (customer relationship management) software leader facing slowing customer additions and elevated earnings-based valuation.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on observable trend consistency, profitability, and relative positioning, the AI currently favors APP over HUBS.
- For more detail, explore APP Major News and APP Today's Price Move, plus HUBS Major News and HUBS Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated strategies are navigating this environment, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
AppLovin and HubSpot sit in the same software sector but represent two very different ways to profit from digital engagement. AppLovin monetizes mobile advertising through its AI-powered engine, while HubSpot sells subscription CRM and marketing software to mid-market businesses. Both names have been caught in the broader "AI disruption" sell-off that has pressured software valuations, making this a timely stock comparison for investors weighing a beaten-down growth story against a defensive recurring-revenue franchise. This analysis examines their relative performance, business drivers, and market positioning to identify which stock currently presents the more favorable setup.
APP Overview and Recent Performance
AppLovin (APP) has evolved from a mobile-game maker into a pure-play adtech company after divesting its games business. Its core asset is Axon, an AI-powered advertising engine that drives performance-based ad spend, primarily within mobile gaming but increasingly across consumer and e-commerce advertising. In recent market activity, the shares have fallen sharply from their prior highs, pressured by short-seller reports, securities class-action filings, and fears that rival AI tools from large platforms could erode its competitive edge. Despite the share-price weakness, fundamentals have remained strong: revenue has continued growing at a roughly 50% clip, and quarterly net income has risen sequentially. The stock now trades near the low end of its historical earnings multiple range, a sharp contrast to its premium valuation a year ago. Sentiment remains divided, with several analysts maintaining buy ratings even as others have trimmed targets.
HUBS Overview and Recent Performance
HubSpot (HUBS) provides a cloud-based CRM platform spanning marketing, sales, service, operations, and commerce for mid-market B2B companies. The business continues to grow revenue at a healthy double-digit pace and has posted meaningful improvements in operating margin and free cash flow. However, recent weeks have brought a reset in expectations: management lowered its customer-addition forecast, and the company announced a workforce reduction of roughly 7%. These moves, alongside the departure of its chief legal officer and analyst downgrades, have weighed on sentiment. HubSpot is also repositioning its AI "agent" offerings with trial-based and outcome-based pricing, a transition that has extended sales cycles in the near term. The shares have declined substantially from their 52-week high, though they remain elevated on an earnings basis relative to many software peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies diverge most clearly on growth quality and valuation. AppLovin combines very high revenue growth with unusually strong profit margins and a modest debt load, and its post-sell-off valuation is now comparable to, or below, the broader market on an earnings basis. HubSpot, by contrast, offers steadier, subscription-based revenue but is experiencing decelerating customer growth, and its shares still carry a comparatively rich multiple on current earnings. Risk profiles also differ: AppLovin faces concentrated exposure to mobile-gaming ad spend and competitive pressure from larger platforms, while HubSpot contends with a softer software-buying environment and the uncertainty of monetizing its AI agents. In terms of momentum, both stocks remain in downtrends, but AppLovin's profitability and lower multiple provide a somewhat stronger fundamental cushion than HubSpot's premium valuation amid slowing growth.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing the observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor APP over HUBS in the current environment. AppLovin's combination of continued high revenue growth, expanding profits, and a materially de-rated valuation offers a more favorable relative risk-reward profile, even as competitive and legal uncertainties persist. HubSpot's recurring-revenue model remains resilient, but its slowing customer momentum and elevated earnings multiple suggest less near-term consistency. This is a probabilistic assessment based on trend and positioning rather than a definitive forecast, and either name could re-rate as new catalysts emerge.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is APP is a Hold and HUBS is a Hold.
APP's RSI Oscillator remains in oversold zone for 1 day
It is expected that a price bounce should occur soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.99% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where APP advanced for three days, in 284 of 331 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
APP may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for APP turned negative on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 75%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where APP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
The Aroon Indicator for APP entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. APP’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 97, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. APP’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (24.213) is normal, around the industry mean (0.848). P/E Ratio (17.510) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.243). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.668) is also within normal values, averaging (1.501). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.075) among similar stocks. APP's P/S Ratio (16.207) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.860).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
HUBS in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026
HUBS moved below its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 29 of 39 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for HUBS moved out of overbought territory on October 26, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 18 of the 27 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 67%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on HUBS as a result. In 71 of 96 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for HUBS turned negative on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 68%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HUBS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
HUBS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
The 10-day moving average for HUBS crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The 50-day moving average for HUBS moved above the 200-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +8.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HUBS advanced for three days, in 230 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 153 of 218 cases where HUBS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 70%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HUBS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 90 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.028) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.884). P/E Ratio (82.505) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.540). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.247) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.072) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.618) is also within normal values, averaging (70.854).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HUBS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
HUBS | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 70 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 90 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 76 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 94 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| APP | HUBS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 89% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 86% | 12 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 87% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 70% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
APP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while HUBS’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- APP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- HUBS’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
APP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HUBS’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- APP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- HUBS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
APP (@Advertising/Marketing Services) experienced а -12.23% price change this week, while HUBS (@Packaged Software) price change was -11.55% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Advertising/Marketing Services industry was +4.00%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.77%, and the average quarterly price growth was -3.89%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was -1.60%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.01%, and the average quarterly price growth was -3.06%.
Reported Earning Dates
APP is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
HUBS is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Advertising/Marketing Services (+4.00% weekly)Making a brand known to people, garnering more clients/consumers for its product and solidifying the brand’s position in an industry – all of these are essential to a company’s growth, and that’s where marketing/advertising come in as one of the key catalysts. Advertising industry is a global multibillion-dollar business of public relations and marketing companies, media services and advertising agencies – entities that help to connect manufacturers/producers with customers. Digital media has played a big role in the growth of global advertising, and agencies invest substantially to integrate advanced technologies into their business operations. According to some estimates, the U.S. advertising industry is expected to generate revenue of $52.6 billion by 2023, up from almost $40 billion in 2015 . Omnicom Group Inc., Trade Desk, Inc. and Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. are some of the major U.S. companies in the industry.
@Packaged Software (-1.60% weekly)Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
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