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APP vs HUBS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AppLovin (APP) vs. HubSpot (HUBS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Contrasting momentum: Both stocks have fallen sharply in 2026, but APP (AppLovin) is down roughly 54% year to date, while HUBS (HubSpot) is off around 55%, creating similarly pressured charts.
- Different profit profiles: AppLovin generates exceptionally high margins and strong free cash flow, while HubSpot is newly profitable and earlier in its margin-expansion path.
- Divergent growth narratives: AppLovin faces questions about ad-network growth ceilings, while HubSpot is navigating a deliberate shift toward AI pricing and slower customer additions.
- Valuation gap: AppLovin trades near a low-teens to mid-teens forward earnings multiple, whereas HubSpot carries a higher forward earnings multiple tied to software growth expectations.
- Risk mix: AppLovin contends with litigation and competitive pressure, while HubSpot faces execution risk from pricing changes and longer sales cycles.
Introduction
AppLovin and HubSpot both operate at the intersection of software and artificial intelligence, yet they serve very different markets. AppLovin is an AI-driven advertising and monetization platform, while HubSpot is a cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM) provider helping businesses attract and manage customers. Both stocks have experienced significant drawdowns during recent market activity, making their relative performance and market positioning a timely study for growth investors, momentum traders, and those evaluating AI-related software names. This stock comparison examines recent performance, business drivers, and risk factors to assess which name currently presents the more consistent setup.
APP Overview and Recent Performance
APP, AppLovin, provides software that helps app developers find advertisers through its AI-enabled auction platform, anchored by the AppLovin Ads network and its Axon AI system. The company has posted exceptional growth in recent years, including triple-digit annual stock gains from 2023 through 2025. More recently, however, sentiment has cooled. Shares are down roughly 54% year to date, trading well below their late-2025 peak near $733 after reaching the low-$300s in recent weeks.
The pullback reflects a combination of factors. In its latest quarter, AppLovin reported revenue of $1.92 billion, up 53% year over year, with net income of approximately $1.27 billion and an adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin near 84%. Yet the market has focused on decelerating growth, with analysts at Edgewater Research citing channel checks suggesting the MAX ad network may be approaching a share ceiling and that competition is compressing net revenue spreads. A recently filed securities class action, which remains unproven, has added to the overhang. The result is a "show-me" posture among investors awaiting clearer evidence that e-commerce and new advertiser segments can sustain the company's historical growth rate.
HUBS Overview and Recent Performance
HUBS, HubSpot, offers an integrated CRM platform spanning marketing, sales, service, and content management, with an increasing emphasis on AI-powered agents and automation. The company has delivered consistent double-digit revenue growth and returned to GAAP profitability in its most recent quarter, reporting revenue of $911.7 million, up about 20% year over year, and net income of $43.3 million. Non-GAAP (adjusted) operating income rose 44%, lifting the adjusted operating margin to roughly 20%.
Despite solid headline results, shares sold off sharply after the company reduced its customer-growth assumptions to 5,000–6,000 net additions per quarter, down from earlier expectations, and management cited longer sales cycles and larger buying committees. The stock has declined about 55% year to date and sits well below its 52-week high near $525. HubSpot has responded with aggressive capital returns, repurchasing over $530 million of stock in the quarter and authorizing up to $1 billion more, while AI agent usage metrics have risen. The central question is whether AI-driven monetization can offset slower customer additions and stabilize growth.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two companies is their business model and maturity. AppLovin is a highly profitable, advertising-centric business with operating margins exceeding 70% and substantial free cash flow, but its growth engine is concentrated in mobile advertising auctions and faces rising competitive pressure from rivals such as Unity. HubSpot, by contrast, is a subscription-software company with recurring revenue, a sticky customer base of over 306,000 accounts, and expanding margins, but it trades at a meaningfully higher forward earnings multiple and is earlier in its profitability journey.
Sector exposure also differs. AppLovin is tied to digital advertising and e-commerce monetization, making it sensitive to advertiser budgets and algorithmic performance. HubSpot is anchored in small and mid-sized business software spending, where AI pricing changes and elongated deal cycles are currently creating friction. On momentum, both names remain in downtrends, though AppLovin's drawdown reflects valuation compression from extreme highs, while HubSpot's reflects a reset in customer-growth expectations. Risk profiles diverge as well: AppLovin faces litigation and competitive spread compression, while HubSpot faces execution uncertainty around its AI pricing transition and net revenue retention, which recently dipped to 102%.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely treat both stocks cautiously in the current environment, given their pronounced downward trends and unresolved catalysts. Between the two, AppLovin's combination of exceptional profitability, strong free cash flow, and a significantly lower forward earnings multiple offers a relatively more stable fundamental base, though its trend consistency is undermined by litigation overhang and decelerating growth. HubSpot's recurring-revenue model and margin expansion are constructive, but slower customer growth and execution uncertainty around AI pricing introduce near-term instability. In probabilistic terms, the AI would be more inclined to favor AppLovin for its margin of safety and cash generation, while monitoring both names for a confirmed stabilization in trend before any sustained positioning shift.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is APP is a Hold and HUBS is a Hold.
APP's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for APP entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 196 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 160 of the 196 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 24, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on APP as a result. In 55 of 76 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for APP turned negative on September 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 70%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where APP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where APP's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 22 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 12 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +6.28% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where APP advanced for three days, in 292 of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
APP may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. APP’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 98, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. APP’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 99 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (32.573) is normal, around the industry mean (13.387). P/E Ratio (23.693) is within average values for comparable stocks, (43.426). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.668) is also within normal values, averaging (2.156). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. APP's P/S Ratio (16.207) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.831).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
HUBS in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026
The 10-day moving average for HUBS crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
HUBS moved below its 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HUBS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The Aroon Indicator for HUBS entered a downward trend on October 07, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on HUBS as a result. In 77 of 97 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HUBS just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where HUBS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 44 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Following a +6.79% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HUBS advanced for three days, in 236 of 320 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 21 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. HUBS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 73 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.105) is normal, around the industry mean (51.922). P/E Ratio (72.185) is within average values for comparable stocks, (82.636). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.247) is also within normal values, averaging (3.135). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.618) is also within normal values, averaging (70.810).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HUBS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
HUBS | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 57 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 73 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 76 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 98 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 21 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| APP | HUBS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 79% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 85% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 75% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 79% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | about 1 month ago 86% | 7 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 1 day ago 73% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 83% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
APP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while HUBS’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- APP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- HUBS’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
APP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HUBS’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- APP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- HUBS’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
APP (@Advertising/Marketing Services) experienced а -2.33% price change this week, while HUBS (@Packaged Software) price change was +1.93% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Advertising/Marketing Services industry was -1.51%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.44%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.54%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was -3.14%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.03%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1.65%.
Reported Earning Dates
APP is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
HUBS is expected to report earnings on Nov 11, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Advertising/Marketing Services (-1.51% weekly)Making a brand known to people, garnering more clients/consumers for its product and solidifying the brand’s position in an industry – all of these are essential to a company’s growth, and that’s where marketing/advertising come in as one of the key catalysts. Advertising industry is a global multibillion-dollar business of public relations and marketing companies, media services and advertising agencies – entities that help to connect manufacturers/producers with customers. Digital media has played a big role in the growth of global advertising, and agencies invest substantially to integrate advanced technologies into their business operations. According to some estimates, the U.S. advertising industry is expected to generate revenue of $52.6 billion by 2023, up from almost $40 billion in 2015 . Omnicom Group Inc., Trade Desk, Inc. and Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. are some of the major U.S. companies in the industry.
@Packaged Software (-3.14% weekly)Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
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APP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, APP has been loosely correlated with COIN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if APP jumps, then COIN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To APP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP | 100% | +0.52% | ||
| COIN - APP | 62% Loosely correlated | +0.78% | ||
| CLSK - APP | 58% Loosely correlated | -1.46% | ||
| QTWO - APP | 57% Loosely correlated | +0.14% | ||
| RIOT - APP | 52% Loosely correlated | +1.21% | ||
| HUBS - APP | 51% Loosely correlated | -0.94% | ||
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