APP stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
AppLovin is a vertically integrated advertising technology company that serves as a demand-side platform for advertisers, a supply-side platform for publishers, and an exchange that facilitates transactions between the two... Show more
Why AppLovin (APP) Stock Is Down -23% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- AppLovin (APP) fell roughly 23% over the last 30 days, from a closing price near $417.80 to about $320.56, driven by a disappointing second-quarter earnings report.
- The August 5 results marked AppLovin's first revenue miss in four quarters, with revenue of $1.92 billion coming in below the roughly $1.94 billion consensus estimate.
- The selloff was tied to slower-than-expected AI model improvements in the core gaming advertising business, rather than weakening advertiser demand.
- Over the past quarter, APP has declined approximately 48% and is down roughly 54% year to date, well below its 52-week high of $745.61.
- Consumer and e-commerce advertiser spend reached a record, finishing 28% above Q4 2025 levels, and the SEC closed its inquiry into the company with no recommended action.
AppLovin (APP) Company Overview and Market Position
AppLovin Corporation is an advertising technology company that operates an end-to-end, AI-powered platform for mobile app developers and advertisers. Its core offering is AXON, a proprietary recommendation engine that uses machine learning to determine which ads to show to which users, helping advertisers achieve their target return on ad spend. The company acts as both a demand-side platform for advertisers and a supply-side platform for publishers through its MAX marketplace.
AppLovin built its scale in mobile gaming, where its AXON engine powers user acquisition and monetization, and has been expanding aggressively into e-commerce and broader consumer advertising. Investors follow the stock closely because of its exceptional profitability — an adjusted EBITDA margin near 84% — and management's long-term expectation of roughly 30% annual revenue compounding.
AppLovin (APP) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, APP declined about 23%, falling from a close near $417.80 to approximately $320.56. The bulk of that move occurred in a single session, when shares dropped nearly 20% following the company's second-quarter earnings release in early August.
The broader quarterly trend has been even more pronounced. Over the past three months, APP has fallen roughly 48%, and the stock is down about 54% year to date. That decline has pulled APP well below its 52-week high of $745.61 reached in late September 2025, though it remains above its 52-week low of $297.50. The trend reflects a sharp repricing of the stock's growth premium rather than a deterioration in reported fundamentals.
What Drove APP Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The dominant catalyst was AppLovin's second-quarter 2026 earnings report, released on August 5. Revenue grew 52.8% year over year to $1.92 billion and adjusted EPS of $3.76 narrowly beat the $3.75 consensus, but revenue missed analyst expectations of roughly $1.94 billion — the company's first revenue miss in four quarters. Adjusted EBITDA rose 58% to $1.61 billion at an 84% margin, and net income climbed 55% to $1.27 billion.
The selloff was driven less by the size of the miss than by its explanation. CEO Adam Foroughi said the pace of "meaningful model improvement" in the core gaming advertising business was lighter than normal during the quarter, with the next AXON upgrade landing just after quarter end. Because APP's valuation had priced in a self-improving AI flywheel, even a timing-related slowdown prompted investors to reassess the durability of sequential growth.
Analyst reactions amplified the move. Piper Sandler downgraded APP from Overweight to Neutral and cut its price target, and Bank of America later lowered its rating from Buy to Neutral. UBS, however, maintained a Buy rating with a $790 target, and BTIG kept its Buy rating while trimming its target, underscoring the divergence in views on whether the model slowdown is temporary or structural.
What Drove APP Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarterly decline extends a longer repricing of AppLovin's premium valuation. After an extraordinary run in 2025 that pushed shares to a 52-week high of $745.61, APP entered 2026 already under pressure, and the stock has lost roughly half its value so far this year even as revenue growth has remained above 50%.
Two overlapping narratives have shaped the multi-month trend. First, investors have grown more cautious about the sustainability of AI-driven advertising growth across the software sector, a dynamic that also weighed on peers such as The Trade Desk (TTD). Second, AppLovin's own guidance cadence shifted, with management guiding third-quarter revenue to $2.055 billion to $2.085 billion — a midpoint just below consensus — as it invests in additional compute for more complex models. At the same time, the SEC closed its inquiry into the company with no action, removing one source of regulatory uncertainty, and the consumer advertising vertical continued to scale rapidly.
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APP Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
The most important near-term catalyst is AppLovin's third-quarter earnings report, where management has guided to reaccelerating sequential growth as recently deployed model improvements take effect. Investors will be watching whether gaming advertiser spend returns to its prior beat-and-raise cadence and whether the company delivers on its $2.055 billion to $2.085 billion revenue guidance.
Beyond earnings, key factors include the pace of expansion in e-commerce and consumer advertising, the onboarding of mid-market advertisers through the relaunched AppLovin Ads Manager, and any shift in adjusted EBITDA margins as compute spending rises. Competitive dynamics in ad tech, privacy regulations, and broader macroeconomic conditions affecting advertising budgets also remain important variables. These are factors to monitor, not a basis for investment decisions.
Disclaimer
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APP's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for APP turned positive on August 25, 2026. Looking at past instances where APP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where APP's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 21 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on APP as a result. In 63 of 75 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Following a +6.28% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where APP advanced for three days, in 292 of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 302 of 358 cases where APP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 84%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 50 of 66 cases where APP's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where APP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
APP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. APP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 97, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (34.722) is normal, around the industry mean (52.084). P/E Ratio (25.267) is within average values for comparable stocks, (44.801). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.712) is also within normal values, averaging (2.230). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (16.207) is also within normal values, averaging (29.544).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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