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ARLO vs TRU
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Arlo Technologies (ARLO) vs. TransUnion (TRU) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ARLO is a small-cap smart home security company shifting toward recurring subscription revenue, while TRU is a large-cap global credit reporting and data analytics firm.
- Arlo has returned to profitability and surpassed six million paid subscribers, but its shares trade near the lower end of their 52-week range after a sharp pullback.
- TransUnion raised its 2026 guidance on strong second-quarter results, yet its stock has declined roughly 24% year to date amid a CFO transition and debt concerns.
- Both stocks carry distinct risk profiles: ARLO is a high-beta growth story, while TRU is a cyclical, debt-leveraged data business tied to credit markets.
- Analysts hold broadly constructive views on both names, with average price targets implying meaningful upside from current levels.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two very different businesses that rarely sit side by side in a portfolio conversation. ARLO, Arlo Technologies, is a small-cap smart home security provider transitioning toward a subscription-driven software model. TRU, TransUnion, is one of the three dominant U.S. consumer credit bureaus, operating across more than 30 countries. Growth-oriented investors weighing a high-beta technology turnaround may find Arlo compelling, while those seeking a diversified data and analytics franchise with a dividend may focus on TransUnion. Comparing their relative performance, market positioning, and risk factors highlights how different the paths to value creation can be.
ARLO Overview and Recent Performance
Arlo Technologies provides cloud-based smart security cameras, doorbells, and subscription services. Spun off from networking equipment maker Netgear in 2018, the company has increasingly emphasized recurring services over one-off hardware sales. In recent quarters, that strategy has shown tangible results: subscriptions and services revenue grew about 30% year over year and now accounts for roughly 60% of total revenue, with non-GAAP services gross margin near 85%. The company has surpassed six million paid subscribers and reported annual recurring revenue (ARR), or the annualized value of its subscription contracts, above $350 million, up nearly 30% year over year.
Despite improving fundamentals, the stock has struggled in recent market activity. ARLO trades near the lower end of its 52-week range after a double-digit percentage decline over the past year, with a beta of roughly 1.6 signaling above-average volatility. Sentiment has been shaped by a mix of positives—a return to profitability, a $50 million share buyback, and new partnerships with ADT, Samsung, and Comcast—offset by concerns over hardware competition, premium valuation, and integration risk from the acquisition of senior-care firm Aloe Care Health.
TRU Overview and Recent Performance
TransUnion is a global consumer credit reporting agency and data analytics provider, positioned alongside Equifax and Experian as one of the three leading U.S. credit bureaus. The company generates revenue from credit reporting, fraud detection, marketing analytics, and, increasingly, its OneTru data and analytics platform. In its most recent quarter, TransUnion reported revenue of about $1.31 billion, up roughly 15% year over year, with organic constant-currency growth of about 10% and adjusted earnings per share (EPS), or profit per share excluding one-time items, rising about 14%.
Management raised its full-year 2026 outlook following these results, but the stock has nonetheless trended lower, declining roughly 24% year to date and hovering near its 52-week low. Sentiment has been pressured by the announced departure of long-serving Chief Financial Officer Todd Cello, ongoing margin headwinds from FICO (Fair Isaac Corporation) mortgage royalties, and a debt-heavy balance sheet with leverage still above management's target. International expansion, including the TransUnion de Mexico acquisition, provides a growth offset, but cyclical exposure to mortgage and consumer credit volumes remains a key risk.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies operate in fundamentally different sectors. Arlo sits in consumer hardware and subscription software, where growth is driven by subscriber additions and rising average revenue per user (ARPU), or the revenue generated per subscriber. TransUnion operates in financial data and analytics, where revenue is tied to credit inquiry volumes, pricing, and cross-selling across financial services, insurance, and emerging verticals.
Growth dynamics also diverge. Arlo is growing faster from a smaller base, with subscription revenue expanding at a roughly 30% annualized clip, while TransUnion's organic growth runs near 8-9%. However, TransUnion is far larger, more diversified geographically, and consistently profitable with a modest dividend yield, whereas Arlo's profitability is newly established and its stock carries a much higher beta.
Risk factors contrast sharply. Arlo faces hardware commoditization, subscriber churn, and integration execution with its Aloe Care acquisition. TransUnion contends with a leveraged balance sheet, a CFO transition, regulatory scrutiny of credit scoring models, and sensitivity to mortgage volumes and interest rates. Valuation also differs: Arlo trades at a high trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, or share price relative to per-share earnings, reflecting growth expectations, while TransUnion screens more moderately valued but carries debt-related and cyclical risk.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward ARLO for its stronger, more consistent trend in recurring revenue and its clearer near-term catalysts from new partnerships and subscriber growth, despite elevated volatility. TransUnion's fundamentals are improving and its valuation appears more reasonable, but leadership transition, leverage, and cyclicality introduce uncertainty that can weigh on trend consistency. This is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive forecast: a momentum-focused system may favor Arlo's growth trajectory, while a stability-oriented system could find TransUnion's scale and cash generation more attractive. The outcome depends on which trading style and timeframe the AI is configured to prioritize.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ARLO is a Buy and TRU is a Buy.
ARLO in +13.03% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on October 29, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where ARLO advanced for three days, in 234 of 297 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for ARLO crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 131 of 180 cases where ARLO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 73%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ARLO moved out of overbought territory on October 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 27 of the 33 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 82%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 46 of 57 cases where ARLO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 06, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ARLO as a result. In 66 of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ARLO turned negative on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 75%.
ARLO moved below its 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 50-day moving average for ARLO moved below the 200-day moving average on October 12, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ARLO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
ARLO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 33 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ARLO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (8.377) is normal, around the industry mean (2.853). P/E Ratio (42.552) is within average values for comparable stocks, (24.804). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.509) is also within normal values, averaging (1.215). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.060) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.553) is also within normal values, averaging (1.867).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
TRU in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026
The 10-day moving average for TRU crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TRU as a result. In 55 of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TRU just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where TRU's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
TRU moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.55% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TRU advanced for three days, in 200 of 295 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 170 of 265 cases where TRU Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TRU moved out of overbought territory on October 26, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 15 of the 30 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 50%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TRU declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
TRU broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. TRU’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 69 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.212) is normal, around the industry mean (4.143). P/E Ratio (21.196) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.659). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.921) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. TRU's P/S Ratio (2.976) is slightly lower than the industry average of (7.166).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TRU’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock worse than average.
ARLO | TRU | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 67 | 21 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 84 Overvalued | 69 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 58 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 44 | 54 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 97 | 87 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 33 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TRU's Valuation (69) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is in the same range as ARLO (84) in the Electronics Or Appliances industry. This means that TRU’s stock grew similarly to ARLO’s over the last 12 months.
ARLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (58) in the Electronics Or Appliances industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TRU (100) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that ARLO’s stock grew somewhat faster than TRU’s over the last 12 months.
ARLO's SMR Rating (44) in the Electronics Or Appliances industry is in the same range as TRU (54) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that ARLO’s stock grew similarly to TRU’s over the last 12 months.
TRU's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is in the same range as ARLO (61) in the Electronics Or Appliances industry. This means that TRU’s stock grew similarly to ARLO’s over the last 12 months.
TRU's P/E Growth Rating (87) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is in the same range as ARLO (97) in the Electronics Or Appliances industry. This means that TRU’s stock grew similarly to ARLO’s over the last 12 months.
| ARLO | TRU | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 50% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 67% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 79% | 6 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 14 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 64% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ARLO’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while TRU’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- ARLO’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- TRU’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ARLO’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TRU’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ARLO’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 8 bearish.
- TRU’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ARLO (@Building Products) experienced а -14.08% price change this week, while TRU (@Financial Publishing/Services) price change was +4.90% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Building Products industry was +2.56%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.14%, and the average quarterly price growth was -13.75%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was +0.09%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.70%, and the average quarterly price growth was +14.34%.
Reported Earning Dates
ARLO is expected to report earnings on Mar 04, 2027.
TRU is expected to report earnings on Feb 16, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Building Products (+2.56% weekly)The industry manufactures products used in the construction of residential and commercial buildings. The process involves using materials and other products, and processing them to create finished items such as doors, windows, light fittings, floor coverings, climate control products and other building components and home improvement products. Masco Corporation, Allegion PLC and Lennox International Inc. are major manufacturers of such products.
@Financial Publishing/Services (+0.09% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
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ARLO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ARLO has been loosely correlated with KODK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 51% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ARLO jumps, then KODK could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ARLO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARLO | 100% | -1.62% | ||
| KODK - ARLO | 51% Loosely correlated | +3.50% | ||
| ARMK - ARLO | 50% Loosely correlated | +4.19% | ||
| TRU - ARLO | 50% Loosely correlated | +2.38% | ||
| EFX - ARLO | 49% Loosely correlated | -0.66% | ||
| CTAS - ARLO | 48% Loosely correlated | +0.36% | ||
More | ||||
TRU and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TRU has been loosely correlated with EFX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TRU jumps, then EFX could also see price increases.