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ASB vs TCBI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) vs. Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. (TCBI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ASB and TCBI are regional bank holding companies with strong year-to-date gains, ASB up approximately 9% and TCBI showing solid longer-term momentum.
- ASB recently completed the acquisition of American National Corporation, accelerating growth in key markets and contributing to record annual earnings.
- Both stocks reported Q4 2025 earnings beats in January 2026, with ASB posting record net income of $463 million and TCBI EPS of $2.08 versus estimates of $1.77.
- ASB has outperformed in recent market activity with a 13.65% one-month gain, supported by analyst upgrades.
- TCBI benefits from a $200 million share buyback and Texas market exposure, with shares up over 20% in the past year.
- Upcoming Q1 2026 earnings for both on April 23 could influence near-term relative performance.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines ASB and TCBI, two regional bank holding companies navigating a dynamic financial sector landscape marked by interest rate shifts and economic resilience. Investors and traders focused on banking stocks may find value in assessing their business models, recent momentum, and growth catalysts. With both firms reporting strong fiscal year-end results and positioned in distinct regional markets, this analysis highlights relative performance and market positioning to aid informed decision-making in today's environment.
ASB Overview and Recent Performance
Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) is a Wisconsin-based bank holding company with approximately $50 billion in assets, offering banking and nonbanking services across Wisconsin, Illinois, and surrounding states. In recent market activity, ASB shares have gained traction, rising about 13.65% over the past month and 9.24% year-to-date, driven by the completion of its acquisition of American National Corporation. This deal enhances market presence and supports growth momentum. Q4 2025 results showcased record annual net income available to common equity of $463 million, with EPS beating estimates, bolstering positive sentiment. Analyst actions, including Argus raising its price target to $31 with a Buy rating, reflect confidence in ongoing integration and operational strength.
TCBI Overview and Recent Performance
Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. (TCBI) serves as the holding company for Texas Capital Bank, a full-service firm providing customized financial solutions to businesses and individuals primarily in Texas. Recent weeks have seen steady performance amid broader sector trends, with shares advancing over 20% in the past year as of mid-March 2026. Q4 2025 earnings delivered an EPS of $2.08, surpassing forecasts despite a slight revenue miss, complemented by a new $200 million share repurchase program signaling capital management focus. Strategic balance sheet repositioning and exposure to Texas's robust economy have supported resilience, with analysts noting potential upside to fair value estimates around $104.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both ASB and TCBI operate as regional bank holding companies focused on commercial and retail banking, but differ in geographic exposure: ASB's Midwest footprint offers diversification, while TCBI leverages Texas's high-growth economy. Growth drivers include ASB's recent M&A (mergers and acquisitions) activity versus TCBI's buyback and balance sheet optimization. Recent momentum favors ASB with sharper short-term gains, though TCBI exhibits stronger annual returns. Risk factors encompass interest rate sensitivity affecting net interest income (NII, revenue from interest-earning assets minus interest expenses) and credit quality, with both maintaining solid return on equity (ROE, profitability relative to shareholders' equity) around 10%. Market sentiment tilts positive for ASB post-acquisition, while TCBI benefits from regional tailwinds.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently leans toward ASB with higher probability for near-term outperformance, based on consistent trend strength, acquisition-driven catalysts, and superior recent momentum relative to TCBI. Factors like stability in earnings and analyst support enhance its positioning, though TCBI remains competitive on longer-horizon growth potential.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASB is a Buy and TCBI is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASB’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileTCBI’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ASB’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TCBI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASB’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TCBI’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASB’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TCBI’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
ASB (@Regional Banks) experienced а +0.55% price change this week, while TCBI (@Regional Banks) price change was -1.15% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +1.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.68%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.55%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASB is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
TCBI is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+1.31% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| ASB | TCBI | ASB / TCBI | |
| Capitalization | 5.65B | 4.43B | 128% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 16.101 | 10.195 | 158% |
| P/E Ratio | 10.20 | 13.41 | 76% |
| Revenue | 1.52B | 1.3B | 117% |
| Total Cash | 465M | 254M | 183% |
| Total Debt | 4.01B | 878M | 457% |
ASB | TCBI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 29 | 70 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 25 Undervalued | 77 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 42 | 46 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 22 | 24 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 97 | 98 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ASB's Valuation (25) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TCBI (77). This means that ASB’s stock grew somewhat faster than TCBI’s over the last 12 months.
ASB's Profit vs Risk Rating (42) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as TCBI (46). This means that ASB’s stock grew similarly to TCBI’s over the last 12 months.
ASB's SMR Rating (22) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as TCBI (24). This means that ASB’s stock grew similarly to TCBI’s over the last 12 months.
ASB's Price Growth Rating (44) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as TCBI (48). This means that ASB’s stock grew similarly to TCBI’s over the last 12 months.
ASB's P/E Growth Rating (97) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as TCBI (98). This means that ASB’s stock grew similarly to TCBI’s over the last 12 months.
| ASB | TCBI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 76% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 12 days ago 65% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 61% | 6 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 67% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| EPAI | 31.15 | 0.76 | +2.51% |
| Harbor AI Inflection Strategy ETF | |||
| FNY | 108.78 | 0.84 | +0.78% |
| First Trust Mid Cap Growth AlphaDEX® ETF | |||
| PPIE | 28.10 | N/A | N/A |
| Putnam PanAgora ESG International Equity ETF | |||
| FDL | 48.97 | -0.08 | -0.16% |
| First Trust Morningstar Div Leaders ETF | |||
| NMT | 12.77 | -0.20 | -1.54% |
| Nuveen Massachusetts Quality Municipal Income Fund | |||
ASB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ASB has been closely correlated with FNB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ASB jumps, then FNB could also see price increases.
TCBI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TCBI has been closely correlated with SBCF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TCBI jumps, then SBCF could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TCBI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCBI | 100% | +0.50% | ||
| SBCF - TCBI | 87% Closely correlated | +1.07% | ||
| FNB - TCBI | 86% Closely correlated | +0.71% | ||
| ONB - TCBI | 86% Closely correlated | +0.85% | ||
| ASB - TCBI | 85% Closely correlated | +0.62% | ||
| WTFC - TCBI | 85% Closely correlated | +1.10% | ||
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