TCBI stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Texas Capital Bancshares Inc is a registered bank holding company and a full-service financial services firm that delivers customised solutions to businesses, entrepreneurs and individual customers... Show more
Why Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) Is Up +9% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- TCBI stock rose approximately +9% over the past 30 days, driven by insider buying and positive analyst price target adjustments.
- Over the past quarter, the stock gained +3%, reflecting resilience amid sector volatility following strong Q4 2025 earnings.
- Key drivers include robust Q4 results with adjusted EPS of $2.08 beating estimates, improved net interest margin (NIM, a measure of lending profitability), and growth in noninterest income.
- Recent insider purchases and capital structure optimizations, such as subordinated notes redemption and senior notes offering, bolstered investor confidence.
- Mixed analyst sentiment with several upgrades, though some sells persist, amid upcoming Q1 2026 earnings.
Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) Company Overview and Market Position
Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. (TCBI) is the bank holding company for Texas Capital Bank, a full-service financial services firm headquartered in Dallas, Texas. The company provides customized banking solutions to businesses, entrepreneurs, and high-net-worth individuals, focusing on commercial banking, consumer banking, investment banking, and wealth management. Its core business model emphasizes secured lending, deposit growth, and diversified fee income from capital markets, mergers and acquisitions (M&A, deals where companies combine), and syndicated finance.
In the regional banking sector, TCBI holds a strong position in Texas, one of the fastest-growing U.S. markets, with total assets exceeding $31.5 billion. Its exposure to middle-market lending and expanding noninterest income streams—now comprising 18% of revenue—has supported recent stock price stability, differentiating it from peers amid interest rate pressures and deposit competition.
Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, TCBI stock advanced from a close of $92.16 on March 10, 2026, to $100.42 on April 8, 2026, marking a gain of +9%. The movement was trend-driven with moderate volatility, featuring steady climbs in early April amid insider activity and analyst notes, punctuated by dips around March 27-30.
For the past quarter, the stock rose +3% from $97.20 on January 9, 2026, to the recent $100.42 close. Performance was range-bound initially post-Q4 earnings peak near $102, with a mid-quarter pullback to the low $90s before recovering, aligning with broader regional bank market trends.
What Drove TCBI Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
TCBI's 30-day uptick was propelled by notable insider buying, including directors purchasing thousands of shares in early March at prices around $92-$95, signaling confidence amid a share price dip. This activity, reported across multiple outlets, sparked positive market sentiment.
Analyst actions contributed, with reaffirmations and target tweaks from RBC Capital and BofA in early April, despite some sell reiterations from JPMorgan and Barclays. Company moves like the March 9 redemption of subordinated notes simplified the capital structure, enhancing balance sheet flexibility.
Sector tailwinds from stabilizing interest rates supported regional banks, with TCBI benefiting from its Texas-centric deposit growth and fee momentum. These factors connected directly to price support above $92, fueling the rebound to $100+.
What Drove TCBI Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarter's modest +3% gain stemmed from sustained narratives around TCBI's multi-year transformation, validated by record Q4 2025 results announced January 22: revenue up 15% to $327.5 million, adjusted EPS $2.08 (beating $1.77 consensus), and NIM expanding to 3.38% from 2.93% prior year.
Noninterest income surged 23% quarter-over-quarter via investment banking, while tangible common equity strengthened. Macro conditions, including higher-for-longer rates, favored TCBI's secured lending model, though deposit competition pressured peers more acutely.
Institutional behavior showed insiders doubling down, with a $400 million senior notes offering in February and capital eliminations optimizing structure. Cumulative impacts from these positioned TCBI resiliently versus broader bank indices.
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TCBI Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Investors should monitor Q1 2026 earnings around April 16, focusing on NII trends, deposit growth, and fee income expansion amid evolving rate environment. Industry developments in regional banking, including regulatory scrutiny on capital (CET1, common equity tier 1 ratio measuring bank strength) and loan quality (NCO, non-performing loans), remain key.
Macro factors like Federal Reserve policy, inflation data, and Texas economic momentum will influence sentiment. Strategic updates on wealth management scaling and investment banking deals, alongside insider activity and peer comparisons, could sway price movement. Risks include credit cycle shifts or deposit outflows.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Momentum Indicator for TCBI turns negative, indicating new downward trend
TCBI saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on June 18, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 96 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 96 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TCBI turned negative on June 18, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
TCBI moved below its 50-day moving average on June 17, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TCBI declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
TCBI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for TCBI entered a downward trend on May 29, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
The 10-day moving average for TCBI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on June 03, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TCBI advanced for three days, in of 333 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 62, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. TCBI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.309) is normal, around the industry mean (1.296). P/E Ratio (13.334) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.661). TCBI's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.871). TCBI has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.002) as compared to the industry average of (0.032). P/S Ratio (3.478) is also within normal values, averaging (3.735).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a regional bank
Industry RegionalBanks