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ASB vs ONB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) vs. Old National Bancorp (ONB) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both ASB and ONB reported strong first quarter 2026 earnings, with ASB posting adjusted EPS of $0.70, beating estimates, and ONB achieving adjusted EPS of $0.61.
- ASB delivered superior year-to-date performance at 10.28% compared to ONB's 8.15%, amid regional bank sector resilience.
- ASB trades at a lower trailing P/E ratio of 9.77 versus ONB's 12.36, suggesting better relative valuation.
- ONB boasts a larger market capitalization of $9.26 billion compared to ASB's $5.30 billion, reflecting broader scale.
- ASB offers a higher dividend yield at 3.35% versus ONB's 2.42%, appealing to income-focused investors.
- Analysts project upside for both, with average price targets of $30.80 for ASB and $27.91 for ONB.
Introduction
Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) and Old National Bancorp (ONB), both regional banks operating primarily in the Midwest and surrounding areas, offer investors exposure to community banking with diversified loan portfolios and deposit bases. This stock comparison analyzes their recent financial results, market positioning, and performance metrics in the context of evolving interest rates and economic conditions. Traders seeking momentum plays or value opportunities, and long-term investors evaluating dividend payers in the regional banking sector, will find insights into relative strengths, such as growth trajectories and valuation discounts, to inform portfolio decisions amid current market dynamics.
ASB Overview and Recent Performance
Associated Banc-Corp (ASB), a Wisconsin-based regional bank holding company, provides commercial, retail, and private banking services across the Midwest. In recent market activity, ASB's stock has shown resilience, with year-to-date gains of 10.28% and a one-year return of nearly 30%, trading around $28.15 recently. First quarter 2026 results highlighted net income of $117 million and EPS of $0.70, surpassing expectations, driven by net interest income of $307 million and loan growth to $31.8 billion. Average loans rose 1% quarter-over-quarter, supported by commercial lending, while CET1 (Common Equity Tier 1, a key measure of capital strength) stood at 10.47%. Positive sentiment stems from guidance for 17-19% loan and deposit growth by year-end, bolstered by strategic acquisitions, amid stabilizing net interest margins (NIM, the difference between interest income and expense).
ONB Overview and Recent Performance
Old National Bancorp (ONB), headquartered in Indiana, operates as a multi-state regional bank with a focus on commercial and consumer lending in the Midwest and Southeast. Recent weeks have seen ONB's shares perform steadily, posting year-to-date returns of 8.15% and trading near $23.98, with a market cap of $9.26 billion. Q1 2026 earnings featured adjusted net income of $237.7 million and EPS of $0.61, beating forecasts despite revenue slightly missing at $702.8 million; net income reached $229.6 million. Loan pipelines remain robust, with NIM at 3.55% and full-year growth projected at 4-6%, potentially higher. Investor sentiment reflects confidence in credit quality and capital returns, including dividends and share repurchases, though revenue pressures from deposit costs influenced performance.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
In business models, both ASB and ONB emphasize regional commercial real estate (CRE) and business lending, but ONB's larger scale offers greater diversification across more states, while ASB focuses on core Midwest markets with higher deposit density. Growth drivers differ: ASB eyes aggressive 17-19% expansion via M&A (mergers and acquisitions), contrasting ONB's organic 4-6% loan trajectory. Recent momentum favors ASB's stronger YTD returns and EPS growth of 17.7% year-over-year, versus ONB's steady but revenue-challenged quarter. Risk factors include interest rate sensitivity and NCOs (non-performing loans), with both maintaining solid CET1 ratios; however, ASB's lower price-to-book of 1.10 signals undervaluation relative to ONB's. Sector exposure to regional banking ties them to economic cycles, but ASB's superior ROE (return on equity, 10.18%) and dividend yield highlight income trade-offs over ONB's size-driven stability. Market sentiment leans positive for both, with upward analyst revisions, though ASB shows tighter valuation spreads.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently favor ASB over ONB in relative terms, citing consistent earnings beats, superior recent momentum, lower P/E multiple, and ambitious growth guidance as key differentiators. ASB's trend stability and higher ROE position it probabilistically better for near-term outperformance in a stabilizing rate environment, though ONB's scale provides defensive qualities. This assessment reflects observable data patterns rather than guarantees.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASB is a StrongBuy and ONB is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASB’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileONB’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ASB’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ONB’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASB’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ONB’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASB’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ONB’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
ASB (@Regional Banks) experienced а +6.48% price change this week, while ONB (@Regional Banks) price change was +4.92% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +3.72%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.76%, and the average quarterly price growth was +12.20%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASB is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
ONB is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+3.72% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| ASB | ONB | ASB / ONB | |
| Capitalization | 5.58B | 9.71B | 57% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 16.812 | 14.073 | 119% |
| P/E Ratio | 10.26 | 12.96 | 79% |
| Revenue | 1.52B | 2.74B | 55% |
| Total Cash | 465M | 537M | 87% |
| Total Debt | 4.01B | 7.36B | 55% |
ASB | ONB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 28 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 27 Undervalued | 45 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 43 | 40 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 22 | 16 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 97 | 47 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 20 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ASB's Valuation (27) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as ONB (45). This means that ASB’s stock grew similarly to ONB’s over the last 12 months.
ONB's Profit vs Risk Rating (40) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as ASB (43). This means that ONB’s stock grew similarly to ASB’s over the last 12 months.
ONB's SMR Rating (16) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as ASB (22). This means that ONB’s stock grew similarly to ASB’s over the last 12 months.
ASB's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as ONB (47). This means that ASB’s stock grew similarly to ONB’s over the last 12 months.
ONB's P/E Growth Rating (47) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ASB (97). This means that ONB’s stock grew somewhat faster than ASB’s over the last 12 months.
| ASB | ONB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 61% | 17 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 64% |
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ONB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ONB has been closely correlated with ASB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ONB jumps, then ASB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ONB | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONB | 100% | +1.82% | ||
| ASB - ONB | 91% Closely correlated | +2.07% | ||
| FNB - ONB | 90% Closely correlated | +1.91% | ||
| ZION - ONB | 89% Closely correlated | +1.22% | ||
| FULT - ONB | 88% Closely correlated | +1.59% | ||
| UMBF - ONB | 88% Closely correlated | +2.17% | ||
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