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ASML vs MCHP
ASML vs MCHP Stock Comparison: Earnings Recap After Strong Q4 Results
Key Takeaways
- ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) reported record Q4 2025 net sales of €9.7 billion, up significantly year-over-year, with full-year sales at €32.7 billion.
- Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) delivered Q3 FY2026 net sales of $1.186 billion, a 15.6% YoY increase, beating guidance.
- Both companies issued optimistic guidance: ASML for €34-€39 billion in 2026 sales; MCHP for $1.26 billion in Q4 FY2026.
- ASML's EUV bookings hit €7.4 billion in Q4, driven by AI demand, while MCHP saw strength in automotive, industrial, and data center segments.
- ASML announced a €12 billion share buyback and 17% dividend hike; MCHP generated $318.9 million free cash flow.
- Semiconductor sector tailwinds from AI and modernization favor both, but ASML's lithography monopoly provides unique edge.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
ASML Holding N.V. and Microchip Technology Incorporated represent distinct yet complementary roles in the semiconductor ecosystem. ASML, the global leader in photolithography equipment, supplies critical extreme ultraviolet (EUV) systems used by foundries like TSMC to manufacture advanced chips. MCHP, a key provider of microcontrollers, analog, and mixed-signal solutions, powers embedded systems in automotive, industrial, and data center applications. Recent earnings from both highlight recovery and growth amid AI-driven demand and supply chain normalization, making this comparison vital for investors eyeing semiconductor exposure. ASML's capital equipment focus offers high-margin, cyclical upside, while MCHP's diversified end-markets provide steadier revenue streams.
Microchip Technology Focus
Microchip Technology released Q3 FY2026 results on February 5, 2026, for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. Net sales reached $1.186 billion, surpassing guidance with 4% sequential and 15.6% YoY growth. Non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 60.5%, reflecting operational efficiencies from its recovery plan. Non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.44, while GAAP net income attributable to stockholders was $34.9 million. Free cash flow stood at $318.9 million, supporting debt reduction and shareholder returns.
Management highlighted momentum in connectivity, driven by automotive electrification and industrial modernization, alongside aerospace/defense strength. Backlog improved substantially, with bookings accelerating. For Q4 FY2026 (ending March 2026), guidance calls for $1.26 billion in net sales (±$20 million) and non-GAAP EPS of $0.48-$0.52, signaling continued expansion toward 65% long-term gross margins.
ASML Holding N.V. Context
ASML Holding N.V. reported Q4 and full-year 2025 results on January 28, 2026. Q4 net sales hit a record €9.7 billion, with gross margin at 52.2% and net income of €2.8 billion (€7.35 basic EPS). Full-year net sales totaled €32.7 billion (up ~16% YoY), gross margin 52.8%, and net income €9.6 billion (€24.73 EPS). Bookings surged to €13.2 billion, including €7.4 billion in EUV systems.
Guidance projects Q1 2026 sales of €8.2-€8.9 billion (51-53% gross margin) and full-year 2026 sales of €34-€39 billion at similar margins. CEO Christophe Fouquet emphasized AI-driven customer capacity expansions and High-NA EUV ramp-up. ASML proposed a total 2025 dividend of €7.50 per share (17% increase) and a €12 billion buyback through 2028.
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
Both firms showcased resilience, but scales differ markedly: ASML's €9.7 billion quarterly sales dwarf MCHP's $1.186 billion, reflecting ASML's monopoly in advanced lithography versus MCHP's broad embedded solutions portfolio. Growth drivers align on AI—ASML via EUV demand for logic/memory chips, MCHP through data center and automotive connectivity.
Earnings quality favors ASML's 52%+ margins and €11 billion annual free cash flow, though cyclicality exposes it to fab spending swings. MCHP's 60% non-GAAP margins and inventory normalization reduce risks, but leverage (net debt/EBITDA ~4x) lags ASML's pristine balance sheet. Sentiment tilts toward ASML on record bookings and 2026 guidance implying 12% midpoint growth; MCHP's outperformance signals end-market recovery. Risks include geopolitics for ASML (China exposure) and industrial cycles for MCHP.
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI favors ASML with 65% probability over the next 12 months, citing superior earnings quality, unmatched EUV positioning, record backlog stability, and AI-fueled trend strength outweighing MCHP's solid recovery.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASML is a Hold and MCHP is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileMCHP’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- MCHP’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MCHP’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MCHP’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а +0.91% price change this week, while MCHP (@Semiconductors) price change was -5.72% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +4.45%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +13.10%, and the average quarterly price growth was +125.55%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +0.67%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.30%, and the average quarterly price growth was +84.67%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jul 15, 2026.
MCHP is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (+4.45% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Semiconductors (+0.67% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| ASML | MCHP | ASML / MCHP | |
| Capitalization | 756B | 49.4B | 1,530% |
| EBITDA | 11.9B | 1.18B | 1,010% |
| Gain YTD | 68.556 | 39.504 | 174% |
| P/E Ratio | 65.04 | 466.86 | 14% |
| Revenue | 33.7B | 4.71B | 715% |
| Total Cash | 8.38B | 240M | 3,490% |
| Total Debt | 2.71B | 5.54B | 49% |
ASML | MCHP | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 82 | 8 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 85 Overvalued | 90 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 18 | 79 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 90 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 48 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ASML's Valuation (85) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as MCHP (90) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to MCHP’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Profit vs Risk Rating (18) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MCHP (79) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew somewhat faster than MCHP’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's SMR Rating (19) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is significantly better than the same rating for MCHP (90) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew significantly faster than MCHP’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as MCHP (43) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to MCHP’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MCHP (48) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew somewhat faster than MCHP’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | MCHP | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 86% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 73% | 10 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 66% | 8 days ago 73% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 72% |
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MCHP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MCHP has been closely correlated with MCHPP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 97% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MCHP jumps, then MCHPP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MCHP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHP | 100% | N/A | ||
| MCHPP - MCHP | 97% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| TXN - MCHP | 79% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| ADI - MCHP | 78% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| NXPI - MCHP | 76% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| KLIC - MCHP | 75% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
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