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ASML vs TSM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding (ASML) vs. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ASML is the world's only supplier of EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography systems, giving it a structural monopoly in advanced chipmaking equipment.
- TSM is the largest dedicated semiconductor foundry, manufacturing the advanced processors that drive the AI infrastructure build-out.
- Both companies posted record third-quarter results, yet their shares slipped as a broad semiconductor sell-off weighed on sentiment.
- TSM trades at a more modest forward valuation, while ASML carries a premium multiple reflecting its near-monopoly moat.
- The two are complementary rather than direct competitors, since TSM is a key customer of ASML's equipment.
Introduction
Investors tracking the artificial-intelligence hardware cycle often encounter two names at different points of the same supply chain: ASML, the Dutch maker of the machines that print the world's most advanced chips, and TSM, the Taiwanese foundry that uses those machines to fabricate them. A stock comparison between the two is less about picking direct rivals and more about contrasting a "picks-and-shovels" equipment supplier with a dominant manufacturer. Both have been major beneficiaries of surging AI investment, yet their market positioning, valuation, and risk profiles differ meaningfully. This comparison is most relevant to growth-oriented investors and traders seeking to understand relative performance and exposure within the semiconductor complex.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML (ASML Holding N.V.) is Europe's most valuable technology company and the sole global supplier of EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography systems, the multi-hundred-million-dollar machines required to manufacture cutting-edge logic and memory chips. In its most recent quarterly report, the company posted record total net sales of roughly €11.7 billion, up about 55% year over year, with net income rising to approximately €5.0 billion. Gross margin expanded to 57.5%.
Management described demand as "very, very strong," noting that some customers are seeking to place orders for 2029 and 2030 and that planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand. ASML is therefore evaluating capacity expansion beyond a previously announced 30% increase. Despite these results, the stock pulled back in recent weeks as investors weighed a slight revenue miss against expectations, a rich P/E (price-to-earnings) multiple, and ongoing export-control uncertainty tied to U.S.–China technology restrictions. China represented roughly 20% of recent sales.
TSM Overview and Recent Performance
TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) is the world's largest dedicated chip foundry, holding roughly 70% market share and manufacturing processors for companies such as Nvidia, AMD, and Apple. In its most recent quarter, it reported a sixth consecutive record profit, with net profit up about 69% year over year and revenue rising roughly 41% to a quarterly record. Advanced nodes (7-nanometer and below) accounted for about 79% of wafer revenue, while high-performance computing reached 68% of platform revenue.
The company guided fourth-quarter revenue to roughly $52.3–$54.3 billion and reaffirmed 2026 capital expenditure (capex) of $60–$64 billion, signaling that spending from 2026 through 2028 will likely exceed the prior three years. Despite the strong figures, TSM shares also declined in recent weeks amid a sector-wide sell-off and concerns about sequentially compressing gross margin (66.4%) tied to ramp-up costs for its newest 2-nanometer process and U.S. fab expansion.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies occupy different roles within the same value chain. ASML is an equipment supplier whose revenue depends on chipmakers' capital spending, giving it exceptional demand visibility but a degree of cyclicality tied to fab investment cycles. TSM is a manufacturer whose revenue scales with actual wafer output and advanced-process adoption, positioning it directly at the center of AI chip production.
On growth drivers, both benefit from AI-driven demand, but TSM captures a broader base that includes smartphones and high-performance computing, while ASML is more concentrated in lithography tool sales and service upgrades. Risk factors also differ: ASML faces export-control and geopolitical exposure concentrated on China, whereas TSM carries geographic concentration in Taiwan alongside the costs of multi-billion-dollar overseas expansion. On valuation, TSM trades at a comparatively modest forward earnings multiple, while ASML's premium P/E reflects the scarcity value of its monopoly position.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings momentum, valuation, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean slightly toward TSM in the current environment. The foundry's streak of 24 consecutive quarterly earnings beats, sixth straight record profit, and relatively less demanding forward multiple suggest more consistent fundamental momentum and stability. ASML retains an unmatched structural moat and exceptional multi-year order visibility, but its premium valuation and the mixed market reaction to its latest report introduce greater near-term sensitivity. The verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: both names remain tightly linked to the same AI investment cycle, and their relative attractiveness can shift with changes in capital spending, export policy, and overall risk appetite.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASML is a Hold and TSM is a Hold.
ASML in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026
ASML may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 31 of 37 cases where ASML's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The 10-day moving average for ASML crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +5.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ASML advanced for three days, in 226 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 188 of 242 cases where ASML Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 78%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ASML as a result. In 67 of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ASML turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 67%.
ASML moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ASML declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ASML’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 90 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ASML's P/B Ratio (28.889) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (6.849). P/E Ratio (64.525) is within average values for comparable stocks, (85.952). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.086) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.008) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (15.175) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
TSM in downward trend: price expected to drop as it breaks its higher Bollinger Band on October 05, 2026
TSM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In 37 of the 51 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TSM as a result. In 56 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TSM turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 67%.
TSM moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TSM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for TSM's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +5.79% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TSM advanced for three days, in 234 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 214 of 276 cases where TSM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 78%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 41 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.333) is normal, around the industry mean (6.294). P/E Ratio (0.965) is within average values for comparable stocks, (22.044). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.859) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (15.480) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TSM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
ASML | TSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 77 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 90 Overvalued | 41 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 26 | 9 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 20 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 6 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TSM's Valuation (41) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ASML (90) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that TSM’s stock grew somewhat faster than ASML’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (26) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that TSM’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's SMR Rating (20) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as TSM (26) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as TSM (43) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's P/E Growth Rating (6) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is significantly better than the same rating for TSM (97) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew significantly faster than TSM’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | TSM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 81% | 3 days ago 76% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 72% | 14 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 84% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 78% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while TSM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- TSM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TSM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TSM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -7.80% price change this week, while TSM (@Semiconductors) price change was -8.98% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -18.80%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.62%, and the average quarterly price growth was -21.46%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was -13.67%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.88%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.15%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
TSM is expected to report earnings on Jan 21, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-18.80% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Semiconductors (-13.67% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
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TSM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSM has been closely correlated with ASML. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSM jumps, then ASML could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 100% | -2.28% | ||
| ASML - TSM | 74% Closely correlated | -0.96% | ||
| LRCX - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | -4.87% | ||
| KLAC - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | -5.00% | ||
| AMAT - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | -4.82% | ||
| ASX - TSM | 70% Closely correlated | -5.63% | ||
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