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ASML vs TSM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding (ASML) vs. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both ASML and TSM have shown strong long-term gains, with ASML up over 80% in the past year despite recent pullbacks of around 3-4% in market activity.
- TSM trades at a lower forward P/E ratio of approximately 23-25x compared to ASML's 36-37x, offering relative value amid AI-driven demand.
- Recent semiconductor sector volatility, including geopolitical tensions, has pressured both stocks, with TSM down about 2-3% and ASML similarly affected in recent sessions.
- ASML's EUV technology dominance supports long-term growth, while TSM benefits from broader foundry scale and AI chip production.
- Tickeron's AI bots trading semiconductor tickers, including ASML, show annualized returns up to 92% with win rates around 67%.
Introduction
In the semiconductor sector, ASML Holding and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) stand out as critical enablers of advanced chip production amid surging AI and high-performance computing demand. ASML, the sole provider of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, powers the most advanced nodes, while TSM, the world's leading pure-play foundry, manufactures chips for major fabless designers. This stock comparison analyzes their business models, recent performance, and relative positioning, aiding traders seeking momentum plays and investors focused on long-term sector growth in a volatile market environment.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding N.V., based in the Netherlands, dominates the lithography equipment market with its EUV and deep ultraviolet (DUV) systems essential for fabricating cutting-edge semiconductors. The company's business model emphasizes high-margin hardware sales, services, and software, supported by substantial R&D investment to maintain technological leadership. In recent market activity, ASML shares experienced pullbacks of around 3.6%, trading near $1,317 amid broader sector pressures. Despite this, year-to-date gains exceed 23%, reflecting robust long-term demand from AI accelerators requiring advanced nodes. Sentiment has been influenced by export controls, China exposure moderation, and positive developments like High-NA EUV readiness, with 2025 revenue hitting €32.7 billion, up 15.6% year-over-year. Growth drivers include AI logic and memory expansion, though risks involve supply chain complexities and geopolitical restrictions.
TSM Overview and Recent Performance
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), the pioneer of the pure-play foundry model, manufactures advanced chips for clients like Nvidia and Apple without designing its own. Its revenue stems from wafer fabrication across nodes from mature to leading-edge 3nm and below, with diversification across high-performance computing, smartphones, and IoT. Recent weeks saw TSM shares decline about 2.8% to around $329, mirroring sector dips from geopolitical tensions like those in the Strait of Hormuz potentially disrupting supply chains. Nonetheless, one-year returns surpass 88%, driven by AI boom revenues. Performance reflects strong Q4 results and capacity expansions in the U.S. and Japan, with analysts projecting 20-34% earnings growth into 2026. Key influences include client AI demand and fab investments, balanced against Taiwan Strait risks and competition from emerging foundries.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ASML and TSM anchor the semiconductor supply chain: ASML's monopoly in EUV lithography contrasts TSM's scaled foundry operations, with the latter boasting a larger $1.5T+ market cap versus ASML's ~$500B. Growth drivers align on AI, but TSM projects steadier 20-33% revenue expansion through 2026 via advanced nodes, while ASML eyes EUV/High-NA ramps potentially volatile with China pull-forward. Recent momentum favors neither amid 3-9% monthly dips, yet TSM's lower P/E offers value trade-off against ASML's premium for tech moat. Risks differ: ASML faces export curbs, TSM geopolitical exposure in Taiwan; both share cyclical sector headwinds but benefit from diversified AI/high-performance computing exposure and positive sentiment from capacity builds.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors TSM for its relative valuation, steadier growth trajectory, and scale advantages in AI chip production, evidenced by bots achieving high returns in semiconductor strategies. While ASML holds unmatched EUV positioning with strong backlog visibility, TSM's lower risk profile and catalysts like U.S./Japan fabs tilt probabilities toward superior risk-adjusted positioning in the near term.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASML is a StrongBuy and TSM is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileTSM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- TSM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TSM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TSM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а +12.23% price change this week, while TSM (@Semiconductors) price change was +9.31% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +13.41%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.75%, and the average quarterly price growth was +91.31%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +6.73%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.51%, and the average quarterly price growth was +18.06%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Apr 15, 2026.
TSM is expected to report earnings on Apr 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (+13.41% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Semiconductors (+6.73% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| ASML | TSM | ASML / TSM | |
| Capitalization | 555B | 1.63T | 34% |
| EBITDA | 12.6B | 2.74T | 0% |
| Gain YTD | 38.542 | 22.635 | 170% |
| P/E Ratio | 51.31 | 35.52 | 144% |
| Revenue | 32.7B | 3.81T | 1% |
| Total Cash | 13.3B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 4.39B | N/A | - |
ASML | TSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 69 | 27 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 79 Overvalued | 51 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 25 | 9 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 17 | 19 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TSM's Valuation (51) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (79) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that TSM’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (25) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that TSM’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's SMR Rating (19) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as TSM (26) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as TSM (39) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's P/E Growth Rating (17) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as TSM (19) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | TSM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 80% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 4 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 67% | 23 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 85% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 61% |
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| PBD | 18.87 | 0.18 | +0.96% |
| Invesco Global Clean Energy ETF | |||
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| Stt Strt® SPDR® Russell 1000 Momt FocETF | |||
| IVV | 682.62 | -0.39 | -0.06% |
| iShares Core S&P 500 ETF | |||
| GMNY | 50.00 | -0.06 | -0.12% |
| Goldman Sachs Dynamic New Yor Mun IncETF | |||
| SCHQ | 31.37 | -0.09 | -0.29% |
| Schwab Long-Term US Treasury ETF | |||
TSM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSM has been closely correlated with ASML. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSM jumps, then ASML could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 100% | +1.40% | ||
| ASML - TSM | 74% Closely correlated | +2.05% | ||
| ASX - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | +1.35% | ||
| LRCX - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | +1.89% | ||
| NVDA - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | +2.57% | ||
| MPWR - TSM | 72% Closely correlated | +1.47% | ||
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