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ASML vs TSM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding (ASML) vs. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ASML is the world's sole supplier of EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography machines, the equipment required to print the most advanced chips; TSM is the world's largest semiconductor foundry that manufactures those same leading-edge chips.
- Both companies are direct beneficiaries of AI infrastructure spending, but they occupy different links in the supply chain — one builds the tools, the other builds the chips.
- ASML has shown pronounced momentum recently, trading near its 52-week high after record fourth-quarter 2025 bookings, while TSM has delivered steadier, sustained double-digit revenue growth.
- ASML carries a premium valuation with a trailing P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio near 59, versus a materially lower forward multiple for TSM.
- Risk profiles diverge: ASML faces export-control and order-cycle sensitivity, while TSM faces geopolitical concentration risk and reliance on a handful of large customers.
Introduction
Few pairings capture the artificial intelligence investment theme more precisely than ASML and TSM. One produces the indispensable lithography equipment used to fabricate advanced semiconductors; the other operates the foundries that turn those tools into the processors powering AI accelerators, data centers, and smartphones. This stock comparison is most relevant to investors weighing two different ways to gain exposure to the same secular demand story, as well as to traders assessing relative performance, market positioning, and momentum between a capital-equipment leader and a manufacturing giant. Understanding their distinct business models, growth drivers, and risks helps clarify how these two bellwethers behave under different market conditions.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML (ASML Holding N.V.) designs and sells advanced lithography systems, metrology, and inspection tools. Its EUV machines are effectively irreplaceable for producing the most sophisticated logic and memory chips, giving the company strong pricing power and a wide technological moat. Recent performance has been exceptionally strong: the company closed its latest fiscal year with record quarterly net sales and record bookings, led by a surge in EUV orders as customers expanded capacity for AI-related chips. Management raised its forward sales outlook, and the company announced a substantial share-buyback program alongside a higher dividend. In recent weeks, the stock has traded near its 52-week high after a sustained multi-month advance, reflecting improving sentiment around AI infrastructure demand and positive analyst estimate revisions heading into its next earnings release.
TSM Overview and Recent Performance
TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, commonly called TSMC) is the world's largest dedicated semiconductor foundry, manufacturing chips for customers including Nvidia, Apple, AMD, and Qualcomm. Its leading-edge 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer nodes and its newly ramping 2-nanometer technology are central to AI servers and high-performance computing. Recent performance reflects robust fundamentals: the company has posted consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth, raised its full-year sales outlook, and outlined a significant step-up in capital expenditure (investment in plants and equipment) to expand advanced and advanced-packaging capacity across Taiwan and the United States. While monthly sales growth has moderated from peak levels in recent months, demand for AI-related chips has remained firm, and the ADR (American Depositary Receipt) has delivered strong cumulative gains over the trailing year.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both names rise and fall with the AI trade, their profiles differ meaningfully. ASML operates a near-monopoly business model with recurring service revenue and high margins, but its results are inherently lumpy because system bookings can swing sharply between quarters and are sensitive to export-control policy. TSM generates steadier, higher-volume revenue but must commit to massive, capital-intensive fab (fabrication plant) construction and contend with concentrated customer and geographic exposure. On valuation, ASML trades at a significant premium multiple, reflecting its scarcity value, while TSM generally commands a lower multiple despite comparable growth. Momentum has favored ASML in recent weeks as order strength and raised guidance reinforced the bull case, whereas TSM's advance has been more measured against moderating sales-growth rates. In short, ASML offers higher-margin scarcity with more cyclicality, while TSM offers broader, steadier exposure to chip demand with geopolitical tail risks.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward ASML in the current environment. Its recent price action shows stronger trend consistency, with the stock holding near 52-week highs and trading above key moving averages, supported by record bookings, raised guidance, and favorable analyst estimate revisions. These catalysts, combined with a structural monopoly on advanced lithography, provide a clearer near-term momentum signal. That said, TSM presents a more stable earnings profile and a less demanding valuation, which may suit a different risk tolerance. The assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, and relative positioning between the two could shift with the next round of earnings and any change in AI spending sentiment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASML is a Buy and TSM is a StrongBuy.
ASML | TSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 83 | 33 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 84 Overvalued | 64 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 6 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 20 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 29 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TSM's Valuation (64) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (84) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that TSM’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (22) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that TSM’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's SMR Rating (20) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as TSM (26) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as TSM (40) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as TSM (29) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | TSM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 54% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 76% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 72% | 6 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 1 day ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 77% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while TSM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- TSM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TSM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- TSM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -4.66% price change this week, while TSM (@Semiconductors) price change was -4.12% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -8.03%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.04%, and the average quarterly price growth was +3.25%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was -7.09%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.52%, and the average quarterly price growth was +38.59%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Oct 14, 2026.
TSM is expected to report earnings on Oct 15, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-8.03% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Semiconductors (-7.09% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
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ASML and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ASML has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ASML jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ASML | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | 100% | +0.60% | ||
| LRCX - ASML | 85% Closely correlated | -0.55% | ||
| AMAT - ASML | 82% Closely correlated | -0.50% | ||
| KLAC - ASML | 81% Closely correlated | -0.58% | ||
| NVMI - ASML | 79% Closely correlated | -0.45% | ||
| ONTO - ASML | 74% Closely correlated | +0.64% | ||
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TSM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSM has been closely correlated with ASML. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSM jumps, then ASML could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 100% | -1.02% | ||
| ASML - TSM | 74% Closely correlated | +0.60% | ||
| LRCX - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | -0.55% | ||
| KLAC - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | -0.58% | ||
| AMAT - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | -0.50% | ||
| ASX - TSM | 70% Closely correlated | +2.59% | ||
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