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ASML vs TSM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding (ASML) vs. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ASML and TSM are complementary but distinct plays on the artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor buildout — ASML supplies the lithography machines that fabricate chips, while TSM operates the foundries that manufacture them at scale.
- Both stocks have delivered strong year-to-date gains, but their recent paths have diverged: ASML has pulled back from its highs on valuation and export-control concerns, while TSM has held a steadier uptrend on persistent AI chip demand.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: TSM — based on trend consistency, relative valuation, demand visibility, and catalysts, TSM currently presents the more favorable risk-reward profile of the two.
- ASML is valued near a premium to TSM on a price-to-earnings (P/E) basis and carries concentrated exposure to export restrictions and China, which account for roughly 20% of its sales.
- TSM benefits from a near-monopoly in advanced foundry capacity, a recent credit-rating upgrade, and surging high-performance computing (HPC) revenue, though geopolitical concentration in Taiwan remains a key risk.
- For more detail, explore ASML Major News and ASML Today's Price Move, along with TSM Major News and TSM Today's Price Move.
- To see how algorithmic strategies are positioning across the market, explore the curated Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
Few industries have shaped the 2026 market narrative as forcefully as semiconductors, where AI-driven demand has lifted both equipment suppliers and chip manufacturers. ASML and TSM sit at opposite ends of the same supply chain, making a head-to-head stock comparison especially instructive. ASML Holding produces the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems that enable the most advanced chips, while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing operates the world's largest dedicated foundry. Growth-oriented investors, semiconductor specialists, and traders monitoring relative performance will find this comparison useful for understanding where value, momentum, and risk currently concentrate in the AI hardware complex.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding N.V. is a Netherlands-based maker of lithography equipment and is the sole supplier of EUV systems required for leading-edge chip production. Its recent results reflected robust demand: in its latest quarterly report, the company posted record net sales near €11.7 billion, net income of roughly €5 billion, and a gross margin of 57.5%, all near or above guidance. Management raised its full-year sales outlook to a range of €44–45 billion, implying year-over-year growth of about 36%.
Sentiment has been driven by the accelerating adoption of High-NA (High Numerical Aperture) EUV technology with customers including Intel, Samsung, and TSMC, alongside strong installed-base management revenue. However, recent market activity has also reflected headwinds. The stock has retreated roughly 25% from its 52-week high, weighed down by a premium valuation, export-control uncertainties involving China, and capacity-expansion constraints. These factors have tempered what otherwise remains a structurally strong demand story.
TSM Overview and Recent Performance
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is the world's largest dedicated semiconductor foundry, commanding an estimated 70% of the global market. In its latest quarter, the company reported revenue of about $46.7 billion, up 16% sequentially, with high-performance computing revenue jumping 22% to represent 68% of total sales. Chips built on 7-nanometer and more advanced nodes accounted for 79% of wafer revenue, underscoring demand for leading-edge capacity.
Recent weeks have featured a Moody's upgrade to Aa2, reflecting the company's leadership position and strong finances, as well as a push to reduce reliance on Chinese rare-earth components. TSM's shares have risen meaningfully year to date and continue to trade above long-term moving averages, though short-term momentum has cooled amid broader AI spending concerns. The ramp of its 2-nanometer technology and constrained advanced-packaging (CoWoS) capacity remain central to both its growth and its supply-chain bottleneck narrative.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains a large library of AI trading bots that monitor and trade thousands of tickers, each defined by its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, and performance statistics. Because not every algorithm is suited to every market regime, Tickeron curates only the most relevant and best-performing strategies into a dedicated Trending AI Robots section. This shortlist is designed to surface bots whose approaches align with current market conditions, giving traders a focused view rather than an overwhelming catalog. Investors comparing stocks like ASML and TSM can use these automated tools to track trend signals, momentum shifts, and relative positioning across the semiconductor space. Explore the Trending AI Robots page to review the current selection and see which strategies are being favored right now.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ fundamentally in business model and growth profile. ASML is a high-margin capital-equipment supplier whose fortunes depend on customer capital expenditure cycles and technology roadmaps; its revenue is more concentrated in a smaller number of high-value system sales. TSM is a volume-driven manufacturer whose scale and advanced-node leadership translate into broad, recurring demand from fabless customers including Apple, NVIDIA, and AMD.
On valuation, TSM trades at a lower forward multiple than ASML, partly reflecting ASML's scarcity premium as a monopoly supplier. Momentum has favored TSM in recent weeks, as it has maintained a cleaner long-term uptrend while ASML corrects from peak levels. Risk profiles also differ: ASML faces export-control and China-revenue concentration risks, while TSM contends with geographic concentration in Taiwan and heavy capital-intensity. Sector exposure is shared, but ASML is more sensitive to equipment-order timing, whereas TSM is more directly levered to end-market AI chip consumption and pricing power.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing trend consistency, valuation, demand visibility, and near-term catalysts, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward TSM as the more favorable of the two. The foundry leader combines a steadier long-term uptrend, a lower relative valuation, confirmed AI-driven revenue acceleration, and a recent credit-rating upgrade. ASML retains exceptional long-term quality and technological indispensability, but its premium valuation, export-control overhang, and deeper pullback from highs introduce comparatively more near-term uncertainty. This assessment is probabilistic and reflects observable market positioning rather than a definitive outcome, and it may shift as conditions evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASML is a Hold and TSM is a StrongBuy.
Momentum Indicator for ASML turns negative, indicating new downward trend
ASML saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 89 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 70 of the 89 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ASML turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 63%.
ASML moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ASML crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ASML declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator for ASML entered a downward trend on November 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ASML's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.45% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ASML advanced for three days, in 227 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
ASML may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ASML’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ASML's P/B Ratio (25.074) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (5.670). P/E Ratio (56.004) is within average values for comparable stocks, (68.795). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.086) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (15.175) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
TSM's Stochastic Oscillator is staying in oversold zone for 4 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TSM's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Following a +3.57% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TSM advanced for three days, in 236 of 317 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
TSM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TSM as a result. In 62 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TSM turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 64%.
TSM moved below its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TSM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TSM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator for TSM entered a downward trend on November 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 42 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.303) is normal, around the industry mean (5.443). P/E Ratio (0.878) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.640). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.859) is also within normal values, averaging (3.803). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (15.480) is also within normal values, averaging (46.468).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TSM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
ASML | TSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 59 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 88 Overvalued | 42 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 37 | 16 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 20 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 61 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TSM's Valuation (42) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ASML (88) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that TSM’s stock grew somewhat faster than ASML’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's Profit vs Risk Rating (16) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (37) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that TSM’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's SMR Rating (20) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as TSM (26) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Price Growth Rating (61) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as TSM (61) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is significantly better than the same rating for TSM (97) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew significantly faster than TSM’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | TSM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 76% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 72% | 12 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 86% | 3 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 58% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while TSM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TSM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TSM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- TSM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -9.01% price change this week, while TSM (@Semiconductors) price change was -7.56% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -9.39%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -31.05%, and the average quarterly price growth was -40.59%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was -9.64%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -28.16%, and the average quarterly price growth was -31.80%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
TSM is expected to report earnings on Jan 21, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-9.39% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Semiconductors (-9.64% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
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ASML and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ASML has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ASML jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ASML | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | 100% | +5.02% | ||
| LRCX - ASML | 86% Closely correlated | +8.23% | ||
| AMAT - ASML | 83% Closely correlated | +4.22% | ||
| KLAC - ASML | 81% Closely correlated | +6.69% | ||
| NVMI - ASML | 80% Closely correlated | +11.73% | ||
| ONTO - ASML | 77% Closely correlated | +11.08% | ||
More | ||||
TSM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSM has been closely correlated with ASML. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSM jumps, then ASML could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 100% | +6.33% | ||
| ASML - TSM | 74% Closely correlated | +5.02% | ||
| LRCX - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | +8.23% | ||
| KLAC - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | +6.69% | ||
| AMAT - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | +4.22% | ||
| ASX - TSM | 70% Closely correlated | +6.43% | ||
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