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ASML vs TSM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding (ASML) vs. TSMC (TSM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both ASML and TSM have delivered robust year-to-date gains of approximately 30%, fueled by surging AI chip demand.
- TSM shows superior recent momentum, rising over 20% in the past month compared to ASML's roughly 5% advance.
- TSM trades at a lower P/E ratio (price-to-earnings) of 33.6 versus ASML's 45.7, suggesting relatively better valuation.
- Geopolitical risks loom larger for both, with ASML facing export curbs to China and TSM exposed to Taiwan tensions.
- Tickeron AI signals lean bullish for TSM with stronger trend consistency and recent record profits.
Introduction
ASML and TSM occupy critical positions in the semiconductor supply chain, with ASML Holding dominating extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment essential for advanced chip production, and TSMC leading as the world's top pure-play foundry manufacturing chips for giants like Nvidia and Apple. This comparison is vital for tech sector investors and traders navigating the AI boom, where demand for cutting-edge semiconductors drives growth. Recent market activity highlights their relative strengths in momentum, valuation, and exposure to AI catalysts, aiding decisions on portfolio positioning amid sector volatility.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding, headquartered in the Netherlands, holds a near-monopoly in EUV lithography systems crucial for producing chips at 3nm and below nodes. In recent market activity, the stock has advanced about 30% year-to-date, reflecting sustained AI-driven demand for its equipment. Shares rose roughly 5-10% over recent weeks before a pullback, influenced by Q1 2026 results that beat expectations with strong bookings yet prompted a sell-off amid U.S. export restrictions to China and competitive pressures from foundry advancements. Technical indicators show bullish MACD and moving average crossovers, though oscillators hint at short-term caution, with shares consolidating near $1,400 resistance. Analyst targets average around $1,659, underscoring long-term optimism despite elevated valuations.
TSM Overview and Recent Performance
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the premier contract chipmaker, fabricating advanced nodes for major clients amid explosive AI growth. The stock has climbed over 31% year-to-date, with a sharp 20% gain in recent weeks powered by record Q1 2026 profits—up 58% year-over-year—driven by AI chip demand and raised full-year guidance exceeding 30% revenue growth. Despite minor dips, it holds above key moving averages, with bullish Aroon and MACD signals supporting upward momentum near $392 resistance. Sentiment remains positive, bolstered by analyst upgrades and a massive market cap over $2 trillion, though Taiwan geopolitics adds risk.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ASML’s business model centers on specialized equipment sales with high barriers to entry, generating sticky revenue from upgrades, while TSMC’s foundry operations offer scale through volume manufacturing but face cyclical capex swings. Growth drivers overlap in AI, yet TSMC benefits directly from hyperscaler orders, posting stronger recent momentum (20% vs. 5% monthly). Valuation favors TSMC at a lower P/E amid comparable YTD returns. Risks differ: ASML grapples with export regulations curbing 20% of sales to China, versus TSMC’s Taiwan exposure and competition. Sector-wise, both thrive in semiconductors, but TSMC’s broader node portfolio diversifies it. Market sentiment tilts toward TSMC’s stability, with analysts projecting higher upside potential.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors TSM with higher probability, citing consistent bullish signals like Aroon uptrends, positive MACD, and record earnings stability amid AI catalysts. While ASML shows promise in uptrends and analyst support, its recent consolidation and regulatory headwinds suggest relatively lower near-term edge.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASML is a StrongBuy and TSM is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileTSM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TSM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TSM’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TSM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а +4.25% price change this week, while TSM (@Semiconductors) price change was -4.20% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -5.88%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.32%, and the average quarterly price growth was +104.94%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was -14.22%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.45%, and the average quarterly price growth was +76.28%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jul 15, 2026.
TSM is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-5.88% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Semiconductors (-14.22% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| ASML | TSM | ASML / TSM | |
| Capitalization | 670B | 1.89T | 35% |
| EBITDA | 11.9B | 2.99T | 0% |
| Gain YTD | 66.973 | 41.603 | 161% |
| P/E Ratio | 58.20 | 36.77 | 158% |
| Revenue | 33.7B | 4.1T | 1% |
| Total Cash | 8.38B | 3.45T | 0% |
| Total Debt | 2.71B | 1.09T | 0% |
ASML | TSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 36 | 27 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 85 Overvalued | 64 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 5 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 38 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 11 | 20 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TSM's Valuation (64) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (85) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that TSM’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (16) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that TSM’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's SMR Rating (100) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (100) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that TSM’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as TSM (38) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as TSM (20) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | TSM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 66% | 23 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 77% |
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TSM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSM has been closely correlated with ASML. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSM jumps, then ASML could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 100% | +0.26% | ||
| ASML - TSM | 74% Closely correlated | +1.64% | ||
| LRCX - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | +0.84% | ||
| KLAC - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | +1.49% | ||
| AMAT - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | +1.43% | ||
| CAMT - TSM | 66% Closely correlated | -0.25% | ||
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