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ASX vs TSM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASE Technology Holding (ASX) vs. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ASX (ASE Technology Holding) is the world's largest outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) provider, surging on demand for advanced packaging in the artificial intelligence (AI) era.
- TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) is the world's largest chip foundry and the direct beneficiary of leading-edge AI chip fabrication, trading near all-time highs.
- Both stocks are riding the same AI-driven semiconductor cycle but occupy different parts of the value chain: TSM fabricates the wafers, while ASX packages and tests them.
- ASX has delivered stronger recent relative performance (up more than 150% year-to-date) but carries higher execution and capital-expenditure (CapEx) risk; TSM offers scale, fatter margins, and steadier trend consistency.
- TSM's gross margin near 68% dwarfs ASX's ~20% consolidated margin, reflecting very different business economics.
Introduction
Investors weighing exposure to the AI semiconductor boom increasingly compare two Taiwanese-headquartered leaders that play complementary roles: ASX, the dominant outsourced assembly and testing specialist, and TSM, the world's largest contract chip manufacturer. Both have rallied sharply as hyperscaler and data-center spending accelerates, yet their market positioning, margin profiles, and risk factors differ meaningfully. This stock comparison is relevant to traders and investors seeking to understand whether advanced packaging or leading-edge fabrication offers the more attractive risk-reward in the current environment.
ASX Overview and Recent Performance
ASE Technology Holding (ASX) provides semiconductor assembly, packaging, and testing services, along with electronic manufacturing services (EMS). Its core Assembly, Testing and Materials (ATM) business has become a focal point of AI demand as increasingly complex chips require sophisticated advanced packaging and high-bandwidth memory integration. In recent weeks, the stock has been among the market's strongest performers, rising more than 150% year-to-date and roughly 230% over the past year.
Momentum has been driven by accelerating revenue from the company's Leading-Edge Advanced Packaging (LEAP) platform, with management indicating LEAP revenue is tracking ahead of its 2026 target of over $3.5 billion and could roughly double in 2027. ATM gross margin expanded to 27.3% in the most recent quarter, and second-quarter earnings surged sharply year over year. To capture demand, ASX raised its 2026 CapEx (capital expenditures) by an additional $2 billion to about $10.5 billion and is pursuing 13 greenfield and eight brownfield expansion projects. While this spending supports growth, it also introduces execution and cash-flow risks, and the stock trades at a premium valuation relative to its industry peers.
TSM Overview and Recent Performance
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) is the world's largest semiconductor foundry, manufacturing chips for customers including Nvidia, Apple, and AMD. Its leadership in advanced process nodes (7-nanometer and below, which account for the majority of wafer revenue) positions it at the center of the AI buildout. The stock has gained roughly 60% year-to-date and recently touched record highs, supported by strong demand and capacity expansion plans.
In its latest quarter, TSM posted revenue up about 34% year over year and earnings up more than 70%, with gross margin near 68% and operating margin above 60% — profitability levels far above most semiconductor peers. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to slightly above 40% growth and lifted its CapEx budget to $60–64 billion. The company has committed $265 billion to Arizona operations and is pursuing projects in Japan and Germany. Recent sentiment has also been supported by reports of early-stage discussions around Elon Musk's Texas-based Terafab initiative, though those talks remain preliminary. Key risk factors include geopolitical exposure tied to Taiwan and the capital intensity of its global expansion.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two companies is where they sit in the semiconductor supply chain. TSM fabricates leading-edge wafers, a capital-intensive business commanding ~68% gross margins and a market capitalization near $1.9 trillion. ASX handles downstream assembly, packaging, and testing, a lower-margin business (roughly 20% consolidated gross margin) with a market capitalization near $100 billion.
Growth drivers differ accordingly: TSM benefits from demand for advanced process nodes and expanding foundry share, while ASX benefits from advanced packaging, chiplet integration, and order spillover from foundries. On momentum, ASX has outpaced TSM this year, but TSM offers greater trend consistency, scale, and pricing power. Risk profiles diverge too — ASX faces execution risk from simultaneous factory builds and negative free cash flow, while TSM faces geopolitical and overseas-expansion costs. Both are exposed to the same macro question: whether AI infrastructure spending sustains its current pace.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, margin stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor TSM as the more structurally durable holding. Its higher margins, dominant foundry share, and steadier uptrend suggest stronger resilience if AI spending moderates. That said, ASX exhibits faster momentum and a more direct leverage to the high-growth advanced packaging segment, which may appeal to momentum-oriented strategies. The assessment is probabilistic: both names are strongly positioned in the AI semiconductor cycle, and the optimal choice depends on whether an investor prioritizes stability or momentum.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASX is a StrongBuy and TSM is a StrongBuy.
ASX | TSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 91 | 40 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 61 Fair valued | 64 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 5 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 50 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 34 | 38 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 6 | 29 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ASX's Valuation (61) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSM (64). This means that ASX’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASX (10). This means that TSM’s stock grew similarly to ASX’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's SMR Rating (26) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASX (50). This means that TSM’s stock grew similarly to ASX’s over the last 12 months.
ASX's Price Growth Rating (34) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSM (38). This means that ASX’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
ASX's P/E Growth Rating (6) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSM (29). This means that ASX’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
| ASX | TSM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 47% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 75% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 77% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASX’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while TSM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- ASX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TSM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASX’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TSM’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASX’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TSM’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ASX (@Semiconductors) experienced а +2.92% price change this week, while TSM (@Semiconductors) price change was +3.51% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +2.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +9.89%, and the average quarterly price growth was +45.88%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASX is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
TSM is expected to report earnings on Oct 15, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+2.71% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
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ASX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ASX has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ASX jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ASX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASX | 100% | -2.18% | ||
| LRCX - ASX | 75% Closely correlated | -1.32% | ||
| AMKR - ASX | 74% Closely correlated | -2.10% | ||
| KLAC - ASX | 74% Closely correlated | -0.32% | ||
| AMAT - ASX | 73% Closely correlated | -1.81% | ||
| KLIC - ASX | 73% Closely correlated | -3.03% | ||
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TSM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSM has been closely correlated with ASML. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSM jumps, then ASML could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 100% | -2.09% | ||
| ASML - TSM | 74% Closely correlated | -1.59% | ||
| LRCX - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | -1.32% | ||
| KLAC - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | -0.32% | ||
| AMAT - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | -1.81% | ||
| ASX - TSM | 70% Closely correlated | -2.18% | ||
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