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BKNG vs TNL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Booking Holdings (BKNG) vs. Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BKNG is a large-cap online travel platform with resilient fundamentals, but its shares have lagged in 2026 amid regulatory and AI-disruption concerns.
- TNL is a vacation-ownership and travel-club operator with steadier price momentum, a dividend, and a raised full-year outlook.
- BKNG offers higher margins and scale; TNL offers recurring revenue, shareholder returns, and a lower valuation multiple.
- Both names face consumer-spending sensitivity, but their risk profiles differ materially by business model.
- Analyst consensus is favorable on both, with a Strong Buy leaning on TNL and a Buy on BKNG.
Introduction
Comparing BKNG (Booking Holdings) and TNL (Travel + Leisure Co.) puts two very different corners of the travel economy side by side. Booking Holdings is a global online travel agency with dominant booking brands, while Travel + Leisure Co. is a vacation ownership and membership business anchored by recurring fee income. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing a high-margin digital marketplace against a steadier, cash-generative leisure operator. Understanding their relative performance and market positioning can help both growth-oriented traders and income-focused investors decide which model better fits the current macro environment.
BKNG Overview and Recent Performance
BKNG operates Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, and KAYAK, making it one of the world's largest online travel platforms. In recent quarters the company has delivered solid fundamentals: second-quarter revenue rose 8% year over year to about $7.35 billion, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) exceeded consensus estimates. Management has also expanded margins and raised its transformation-savings target, and it completed a 25-for-1 stock split earlier in 2026.
Despite this operational strength, the stock's price behavior has been challenged. Shares have declined meaningfully over the past year, underperforming the broader market. Sentiment has been pressured by an FTC (Federal Trade Commission) inquiry into booking-related fees, which could carry significant penalties, and by investor debate over whether agentic artificial intelligence (AI) tools could bypass third-party platforms and shift bookings directly to operators. These factors have kept the valuation below its historical average even as earnings continue to grow.
TNL Overview and Recent Performance
TNL is a leading leisure travel company whose portfolio includes Club Wyndham, WorldMark, RCI, and lifestyle brands such as Margaritaville Vacation Club. Its model combines vacation ownership sales with recurring service and membership fees, which provide a relatively predictable revenue base. In recent periods the company reported mid-single-digit revenue growth and raised its full-year outlook, supported by gross vacation ownership interest (VOI) sales growth and improving volume per guest (VPG).
TNL has complemented organic growth with acquisitions and a disciplined capital-return program, including dividends and buybacks. Its price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple remains comparatively low, and analysts have maintained a broadly constructive stance. However, the business is concentrated in U.S. vacation ownership and carries exposure to consumer credit and discretionary-spending trends, factors that have contributed to a cautious industry-level outlook in recent weeks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies diverge sharply in business model. BKNG is an asset-light marketplace that earns a take rate on bookings, producing higher net margins and greater scale but also greater sensitivity to travel demand, foreign exchange, and platform-disruption risks. TNL is an inventory- and membership-driven operator with a larger share of recurring revenue and direct shareholder distributions, but with narrower margins and a heavier balance-sheet footprint.
Growth drivers also differ. BKNG leans on room-night growth, connected-trip cross-selling, and generative AI integration, while TNL relies on VOI sales efficiency, brand expansion, and acquisitions. On momentum, TNL has shown comparatively steadier relative performance, whereas BKNG has faced more pronounced drawdowns tied to regulatory headlines. In terms of sector exposure, both are consumer-discretionary, but BKNG skews global and digital while TNL skews domestic and experiential.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor TNL in the current environment. Its steadier trend profile, recurring revenue mix, shareholder returns, and raised guidance offer more consistent momentum signals than BKNG's stronger earnings power offset by regulatory and structural uncertainty. That said, the assessment is probabilistic: BKNG's scale, margins, and valuation reset could reassert themselves if sentiment stabilizes. Traders should weigh trend consistency against the long-term quality of each franchise.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BKNG is a Hold and TNL is a Buy.
BKNG's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for BKNG moved out of oversold territory on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 25 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 21 of the 25 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BKNG as a result. In 58 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BKNG just turned positive on November 03, 2026. Looking at past instances where BKNG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
BKNG moved above its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +11.20% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BKNG advanced for three days, in 254 of 347 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The 50-day moving average for BKNG moved below the 200-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BKNG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
BKNG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for BKNG entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 56 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-11.757) is normal, around the industry mean (-0.205). P/E Ratio (18.641) is within average values for comparable stocks, (26.878). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.900) is also within normal values, averaging (1.617). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.216) among similar stocks. BKNG's P/S Ratio (4.833) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.686).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. BKNG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
TNL in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026
The 10-day moving average for TNL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TNL as a result. In 59 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
TNL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.64% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TNL advanced for three days, in 201 of 296 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 155 of 250 cases where TNL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
TNL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TNL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 53 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-4.513) is normal, around the industry mean (-0.205). P/E Ratio (19.750) is within average values for comparable stocks, (26.878). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.050) is also within normal values, averaging (1.617). Dividend Yield (0.032) settles around the average of (0.216) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.027) is also within normal values, averaging (2.686).
BKNG | TNL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 20 | 44 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 56 Fair valued | 53 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 31 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 1 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 87 | 5 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TNL's Valuation (53) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is in the same range as BKNG (56) in the Other Consumer Services industry. This means that TNL’s stock grew similarly to BKNG’s over the last 12 months.
BKNG's Profit vs Risk Rating (28) in the Other Consumer Services industry is in the same range as TNL (31) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry. This means that BKNG’s stock grew similarly to TNL’s over the last 12 months.
BKNG's SMR Rating (1) in the Other Consumer Services industry is in the same range as TNL (3) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry. This means that BKNG’s stock grew similarly to TNL’s over the last 12 months.
TNL's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is in the same range as BKNG (57) in the Other Consumer Services industry. This means that TNL’s stock grew similarly to BKNG’s over the last 12 months.
TNL's P/E Growth Rating (5) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is significantly better than the same rating for BKNG (87) in the Other Consumer Services industry. This means that TNL’s stock grew significantly faster than BKNG’s over the last 12 months.
| BKNG | TNL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 73% | 5 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 59% | N/A |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 62% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BKNG’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while TNL’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BKNG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TNL’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BKNG’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TNL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BKNG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TNL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
BKNG (@Consumer Sundries) experienced а +12.16% price change this week, while TNL (@Consumer Sundries) price change was +4.98% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Consumer Sundries industry was +1.41%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.93%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.40%.
Reported Earning Dates
BKNG is expected to report earnings on Feb 25, 2027.
TNL is expected to report earnings on Feb 24, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Consumer Sundries (+1.41% weekly)Consumer sundries companies make products that usually do not have another classification, such as lawn and garden products, pest-control products, pet food and pet products like leashes, collars, and harnesses. Central Garden & Pet Company and Dogness (International) Corporation are examples of companies operating in this industry.
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BKNG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BKNG has been closely correlated with EXPE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BKNG jumps, then EXPE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BKNG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKNG | 100% | -1.32% | ||
| EXPE - BKNG | 72% Closely correlated | -13.74% | ||
| ABNB - BKNG | 65% Loosely correlated | -3.54% | ||
| MMYT - BKNG | 53% Loosely correlated | +1.04% | ||
| TNL - BKNG | 49% Loosely correlated | -3.31% | ||
| NCLH - BKNG | 44% Loosely correlated | -4.52% | ||
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TNL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TNL has been loosely correlated with NCLH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 59% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TNL jumps, then NCLH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TNL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TNL | 100% | -3.31% | ||
| NCLH - TNL | 59% Loosely correlated | -4.52% | ||
| CCL - TNL | 59% Loosely correlated | -5.52% | ||
| RCL - TNL | 53% Loosely correlated | -3.13% | ||
| SABR - TNL | 52% Loosely correlated | -3.45% | ||
| VIK - TNL | 50% Loosely correlated | -5.50% | ||
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