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BKNG vs EXPE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Booking Holdings (BKNG) vs. Expedia Group (EXPE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BKNG holds a dominant market position with a $131 billion market cap, dwarfing EXPE's $30 billion, reflecting greater scale in online travel bookings.
- Recent market activity shows EXPE outperforming with partnerships like Uber boosting sentiment, while BKNG faces pressure despite Q1 earnings beats.
- Year-to-date, both stocks have lagged broader indices, but EXPE shows stronger multi-year momentum with 54% returns over 12 months versus BKNG's decline.
- BKNG trades at a lower P/E ratio (22.4) compared to EXPE (25.7), suggesting relative value amid travel sector recovery.
- Upcoming catalysts include EXPE's Q1 earnings on May 7, projecting EPS growth, positioning it for potential near-term upside.
Introduction
Booking Holdings (BKNG) and Expedia Group (EXPE) are leading players in the online travel industry, competing in hotel reservations, flights, and vacation packages. This comparison analyzes their recent performance, business models, and market positioning amid recovering travel demand and economic uncertainties. Traders seeking momentum plays and investors eyeing long-term growth in leisure and business travel will find value in understanding their relative strengths, such as scale versus agility, and how sector trends like partnerships and earnings influence stock trajectories. With both facing macroeconomic headwinds, relative performance highlights key differentiators in today's market.
BKNG Overview and Recent Performance
Booking Holdings (BKNG), parent of Booking.com, Priceline, and Agoda, dominates global online travel with a merchant and agency model emphasizing accommodations. In recent weeks, shares have declined around 4% over five days and 4% monthly, underperforming amid broader market gains, with year-to-date losses near 21%. Q1 2026 earnings on April 28 beat expectations, with adjusted EPS of $1.14 (versus $1.08 estimated) and revenue up 16% to $5.53 billion, driven by 15% gross bookings growth to $53.8 billion. Sentiment reflects profit-taking post-rally and travel demand concerns, though AI initiatives and buybacks provide support. Trading near its 52-week low of $150.62 (high $233.58), the stock's stability stems from diversified international exposure.
EXPE Overview and Recent Performance
Expedia Group (EXPE), encompassing Expedia.com, Hotels.com, and Vrbo, focuses on a mix of B2C and growing B2B travel solutions. Recent market activity has been more resilient, with shares climbing on news like a partnership with Uber for in-app hotel bookings, enhancing distribution. Year-to-date performance trails at around -29% in some metrics, but multi-year gains stand out with 52-week range from $148.55 to $303.80. Q4 2025 revenue rose 11% to $3.55 billion, with B2B bookings up 24%, signaling strength in corporate travel recovery. Anticipation builds for Q1 2026 earnings on May 7, forecasting 252% EPS growth to $1.41. Volatility persists due to economic sensitivity, but strategic deals bolster sentiment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Business models differ: BKNG's merchant-heavy approach yields higher margins (via direct supplier deals) versus EXPE's balanced agency/B2B focus, driving 24% B2B growth but exposing it to partner risks. Growth drivers include BKNG's international scale and loyalty programs boosting room nights 10%, while EXPE leverages partnerships like Uber for distribution expansion. Recent momentum favors EXPE with 20% monthly gains earlier, contrasting BKNG's 17% three-month drop; risks involve economic slowdowns hitting discretionary travel, with both sensitive to consumer spending. Sector exposure overlaps in leisure, but EXPE's B2B tilt offers diversification. Market sentiment tilts toward EXPE's value at lower multiples despite scale gap.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI models currently lean toward EXPE due to superior relative momentum, upcoming earnings catalysts projecting strong EPS growth, and partnerships enhancing growth prospects amid travel recovery. BKNG offers stability and scale, but recent pullbacks suggest higher near-term resistance. Probabilistic edge favors EXPE for trend consistency in the current environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BKNG is a StrongBuy and EXPE is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BKNG’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileEXPE’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- BKNG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- EXPE’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BKNG’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while EXPE’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BKNG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- EXPE’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 7 bearish.
Price Growth
BKNG (@Consumer Sundries) experienced а -0.54% price change this week, while EXPE (@Consumer Sundries) price change was -1.74% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Consumer Sundries industry was +1.90%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.31%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.23%.
Reported Earning Dates
BKNG is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
EXPE is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Consumer Sundries (+1.90% weekly)Consumer sundries companies make products that usually do not have another classification, such as lawn and garden products, pest-control products, pet food and pet products like leashes, collars, and harnesses. Central Garden & Pet Company and Dogness (International) Corporation are examples of companies operating in this industry.
| BKNG | EXPE | BKNG / EXPE | |
| Capitalization | 128B | 27B | 474% |
| EBITDA | 9.8B | 3.08B | 318% |
| Gain YTD | -22.632 | -20.279 | 112% |
| P/E Ratio | 21.75 | 19.87 | 109% |
| Revenue | 27.7B | 15.2B | 182% |
| Total Cash | 16B | 5.79B | 276% |
| Total Debt | 18.9B | 4.71B | 402% |
BKNG | EXPE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 25 | 25 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 97 Overvalued | 86 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 72 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 1 | 9 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 85 | 51 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 48 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
EXPE's Valuation (86) in the Other Consumer Services industry is in the same range as BKNG (97). This means that EXPE’s stock grew similarly to BKNG’s over the last 12 months.
BKNG's Profit vs Risk Rating (30) in the Other Consumer Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for EXPE (72). This means that BKNG’s stock grew somewhat faster than EXPE’s over the last 12 months.
BKNG's SMR Rating (1) in the Other Consumer Services industry is in the same range as EXPE (9). This means that BKNG’s stock grew similarly to EXPE’s over the last 12 months.
EXPE's Price Growth Rating (52) in the Other Consumer Services industry is in the same range as BKNG (59). This means that EXPE’s stock grew similarly to BKNG’s over the last 12 months.
EXPE's P/E Growth Rating (51) in the Other Consumer Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BKNG (85). This means that EXPE’s stock grew somewhat faster than BKNG’s over the last 12 months.
| BKNG | EXPE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 80% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 66% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 76% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 59% | 12 days ago 67% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 5 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 46% | 3 days ago 63% |
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EXPE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, EXPE has been closely correlated with BKNG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if EXPE jumps, then BKNG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To EXPE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXPE | 100% | +0.10% | ||
| BKNG - EXPE | 67% Closely correlated | +0.83% | ||
| CCL - EXPE | 50% Loosely correlated | +3.77% | ||
| CUK - EXPE | 49% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| ABNB - EXPE | 47% Loosely correlated | +1.08% | ||
| TRIP - EXPE | 44% Loosely correlated | +4.20% | ||
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