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RCL vs TNL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) vs. Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different business models: RCL is a capital-intensive cruise operator, while TNL runs an asset-light vacation ownership and travel club portfolio.
- Growth vs. stability: RCL is delivering double-digit earnings growth and expanding beyond cruises, while TNL emphasizes recurring revenue, dividends, and buybacks.
- Valuation gap: Both stocks trade at similar forward earnings multiples, but analyst price targets imply meaningfully more upside for TNL.
- Sentiment split: RCL has strong recent momentum but faces geopolitical and fuel-cost headwinds, while TNL has pulled back despite a "Strong Buy" consensus.
- Risk profiles diverge: RCL carries high debt tied to fleet spending; TNL carries consumer-credit and timeshare concentration risk.
- For deeper detail on each name, explore the RCL Major News and RCL Today's Price Move pages, along with the TNL Major News and TNL Today's Price Move pages.
- To see how AI-driven systems are currently positioned, explore the Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) and Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) both operate in the consumer leisure economy, yet they pursue very different strategies. One is a cruise-ship owner expanding into resorts; the other is a vacation-ownership and travel-club business built on recurring fees. For investors weighing growth momentum against income stability, this stock comparison highlights how two travel-focused names can diverge sharply on business model, capital intensity, and risk. Understanding their relative performance and market positioning can help traders and longer-term investors decide which profile better matches their objectives in the current environment.
RCL Overview and Recent Performance
Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) is one of the world's largest cruise operators, sailing brands including Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea across more than 70 ships, alongside a stake in TUI Cruises. In recent quarters the company has reported earnings ahead of expectations, with strong pricing, high load factors, and healthy onboard spending. First-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose to $3.60, and full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was raised toward the $17.73–$17.87 range as management cited record booking weeks.
Recent market activity has been mixed. The stock gained roughly 20% over a one-month stretch before pulling back, and it remains below its 52-week high. Sentiment has been shaped by a RCL agreement to acquire a 50% stake in Sandals Resorts for about $3 billion—expanding the company beyond cruises—alongside concerns about elevated fuel costs and softer Mediterranean itineraries tied to geopolitical events. Analysts broadly maintain a "Buy" consensus with an average price target well above the current share price.
TNL Overview and Recent Performance
Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) is a leading leisure travel company providing more than six million vacations annually through a portfolio of vacation ownership, travel club, and lifestyle brands, including Club Wyndham, WorldMark, RCI, Margaritaville Vacation Club, and Accor Vacation Club. Unlike RCL, the model is comparatively asset-light, with a large share of revenue recurring and a multi-year sales pipeline.
In recent quarters the company beat earnings estimates and raised its full-year 2026 outlook, now guiding to adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $1.065–$1.085 billion and roughly 20% EPS growth, supported by acquisitions and improving vacation ownership momentum. Despite this, the share price has slipped in recent weeks and is down on a year-to-date basis, even as the consensus rating sits at "Strong Buy" with an average target implying substantial upside. Investor attention has focused on consumer credit trends, a still-elevated loan loss provision, and the company's concentration in U.S. vacation ownership.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast is structural. RCL owns and operates expensive physical assets—ships and, increasingly, resorts—so its growth depends on capacity additions and booking demand, while its balance sheet carries substantial debt and capital expenditures. TNL, by contrast, monetizes vacation ownership interests (VOIs) and management fees, generating more recurring cash flow and returning capital through dividends and buybacks.
Growth drivers also differ. RCL is levered to a broad consumer travel recovery, new ship deliveries, and its move into all-inclusive resorts. TNL is expanding through acquisitions and new brand licensing, with a steadier but more moderate revenue trajectory. On risk, RCL faces fuel prices, geopolitical itinerary disruptions, and high fixed costs, whereas TNL faces consumer credit deterioration and timeshare-sector cyclicality. Market sentiment currently favors TNL on ratings and upside-to-target, while RCL shows stronger recent earnings momentum but more near-term volatility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely express a nuanced view rather than a single clear winner. RCL demonstrates stronger earnings momentum and trend consistency, but its elevated capital intensity, debt, and sensitivity to fuel and geopolitical events introduce greater volatility. TNL offers steadier recurring revenue and a more favorable analyst consensus with higher implied upside, yet its recent price pullback and consumer-credit exposure temper the case. On balance, the AI would probably favor TNL for stability-oriented positioning and RCL for momentum-driven setups, with the edge depending on an investor's timeframe and risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is RCL is a Buy and TNL is a Buy.
RCL in +3.88% Uptrend, advancing for three consecutive days on November 10, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where RCL advanced for three days, in 270 of 331 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RCL as a result. In 53 of 69 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
RCL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for RCL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 295 of 368 cases where RCL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 80%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RCL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
RCL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. RCL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 76 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (8.548) is normal, around the industry mean (-0.351). P/E Ratio (20.096) is within average values for comparable stocks, (24.800). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.980) is also within normal values, averaging (1.617). Dividend Yield (0.018) settles around the average of (0.224) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.690) is also within normal values, averaging (2.754).
Momentum Indicator for TNL turns positive, indicating new upward trend
TNL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 91 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 72 of the 91 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
TNL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TNL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 14 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Following a +6.66% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TNL advanced for three days, in 201 of 295 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 155 of 250 cases where TNL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
TNL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TNL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 53 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-4.530) is normal, around the industry mean (-0.351). P/E Ratio (19.824) is within average values for comparable stocks, (24.800). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.050) is also within normal values, averaging (1.617). Dividend Yield (0.032) settles around the average of (0.224) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.027) is also within normal values, averaging (2.754).
RCL | TNL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 43 | 46 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 76 Overvalued | 53 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 18 | 25 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 23 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 10 | 38 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 30 | 6 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TNL's Valuation (53) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is in the same range as RCL (76). This means that TNL’s stock grew similarly to RCL’s over the last 12 months.
RCL's Profit vs Risk Rating (18) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is in the same range as TNL (25). This means that RCL’s stock grew similarly to TNL’s over the last 12 months.
TNL's SMR Rating (3) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is in the same range as RCL (23). This means that TNL’s stock grew similarly to RCL’s over the last 12 months.
RCL's Price Growth Rating (10) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is in the same range as TNL (38). This means that RCL’s stock grew similarly to TNL’s over the last 12 months.
TNL's P/E Growth Rating (6) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is in the same range as RCL (30). This means that TNL’s stock grew similarly to RCL’s over the last 12 months.
| RCL | TNL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 79% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 71% | N/A |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 50% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 62% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
RCL’s FA Score shows that 4 FA rating(s) are green while TNL’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- RCL’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
- TNL’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
RCL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TNL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- RCL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TNL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
RCL (@Consumer Sundries) experienced а +8.52% price change this week, while TNL (@Consumer Sundries) price change was +6.56% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Consumer Sundries industry was -2.39%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.78%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.68%.
Reported Earning Dates
RCL is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
TNL is expected to report earnings on Feb 24, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Consumer Sundries (-2.39% weekly)Consumer sundries companies make products that usually do not have another classification, such as lawn and garden products, pest-control products, pet food and pet products like leashes, collars, and harnesses. Central Garden & Pet Company and Dogness (International) Corporation are examples of companies operating in this industry.
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RCL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RCL has been closely correlated with CCL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RCL jumps, then CCL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To RCL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCL | 100% | +0.85% | ||
| CCL - RCL | 79% Closely correlated | -0.23% | ||
| NCLH - RCL | 75% Closely correlated | +0.43% | ||
| VIK - RCL | 67% Closely correlated | +1.03% | ||
| TNL - RCL | 53% Loosely correlated | +2.63% | ||
| BKNG - RCL | 39% Loosely correlated | -2.59% | ||
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TNL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TNL has been loosely correlated with NCLH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TNL jumps, then NCLH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TNL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TNL | 100% | +2.63% | ||
| NCLH - TNL | 61% Loosely correlated | +0.43% | ||
| CCL - TNL | 60% Loosely correlated | -0.23% | ||
| RCL - TNL | 54% Loosely correlated | +0.85% | ||
| SABR - TNL | 52% Loosely correlated | -1.67% | ||
| VIK - TNL | 50% Loosely correlated | +1.03% | ||
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