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BMO vs CM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Bank of Montreal (BMO) vs. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BMO (Bank of Montreal) is the more U.S.-diversified of the two, generating roughly 60% of earnings in Canada and 40% in the United States.
- CM (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, or CIBC) is more Canada-centric and has posted stronger year-over-year share price gains in recent months.
- CM currently reports a higher return on equity (ROE) and a lower price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple than BMO, despite both stocks trading at elevated levels after strong rallies.
- BMO's capital markets and wealth segments are showing notable momentum, while CM has delivered eight consecutive quarters of double-digit earnings-per-share growth.
- Both banks carry solid capital buffers, with BMO's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio—a key measure of a bank's financial resilience—at 13.0%.
Introduction
Bank of Montreal (BMO) and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) are two of Canada's largest financial institutions, yet their stock comparison reveals meaningfully different business profiles and market positioning. BMO has leaned aggressively into U.S. expansion, while CIBC remains anchored in Canadian personal and commercial banking alongside a fast-growing capital markets franchise. For investors and traders weighing relative performance, dividend income, and risk exposure, this head-to-head review examines what has driven each stock in recent market activity and how their fundamentals and momentum currently stack up.
BMO Overview and Recent Performance
Bank of Montreal operates across four segments: Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking, U.S. Personal and Commercial Banking, Wealth Management, and Capital Markets. The bank has spent recent years reshaping its footprint, selling 138 U.S. branches while simultaneously planning to open more than 130 financial centers in California and roughly 15 in Arizona over the coming years—part of a strategy to densify in select U.S. growth markets.
In recent weeks, BMO has traded around the $167 level, well above its 52-week low but below its high, after a substantial run that has lifted the stock more than 30% over the trailing year. Its most recent quarterly results highlighted strength in capital markets, where adjusted earnings rose sharply, and in wealth management. Management has set a medium-term target of more than 15% return on equity (ROE) by 2028, with the most recent quarter posting an adjusted ROE near 14%. A solid CET1 ratio of 13.0% provides capacity for buybacks and strategic investment, though the stock's valuation now sits above many analysts' average price targets.
CM Overview and Recent Performance
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce operates through Canadian Personal and Business Banking, Canadian Commercial Banking and Wealth Management, U.S. Commercial Banking and Wealth Management, and Capital Markets and Direct Financial Services. Its profile is more concentrated in Canadian lending, including a large mortgage book, which makes its results more sensitive to domestic credit and housing conditions.
CM has been one of the stronger performers among Canadian banks, gaining more than 40% over the trailing year and reaching a market capitalization above $100 billion. The bank has posted eight consecutive quarters of double-digit earnings-per-share growth, with return on equity improving to roughly 16.4% in its most recent quarter. Recent strategic moves—including partnerships aimed at enhancing digital capabilities and expanding wealth management—have supported sentiment. At the same time, investors have weighed rising operating expenses and elevated provisions for credit losses (PCL), a figure that reflects the funds banks set aside to cover loans that may not be repaid.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both are diversified Canadian banks, BMO and CM present different trade-offs. BMO's larger U.S. presence offers geographic diversification and a growth runway tied to its California and Arizona expansion, but it also exposes results to foreign-exchange swings and a more complex operating model. CM's domestic focus gives it concentrated exposure to the Canadian consumer and housing market—a strength when the economy is healthy, but a source of credit sensitivity when loan-loss provisions rise.
On profitability, CM currently leads on return on equity and trades at a lower P/E multiple, which some investors read as better relative value. BMO, by contrast, carries a higher multiple but is showing stronger capital-markets momentum and is repositioning its U.S. franchise for longer-term growth. On dividends, both offer similar yields in the high-2% range. In terms of market positioning, CM has demonstrated more consistent earnings momentum, while BMO's story leans on diversification and a multi-year U.S. transformation. Risk factors differ accordingly: CM's key watch item is credit quality and expense growth, whereas BMO's is execution of its U.S. restructuring and the sustainability of its trading-driven revenue.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward CM in the current environment, reflecting its stronger and more consistent earnings growth streak, higher return on equity, and stronger recent relative price momentum. The persistence of CM's double-digit earnings-per-share growth across eight consecutive quarters points to a steadier trend than BMO's more recently improving—but historically uneven—profitability profile. That said, the conclusion is probabilistic rather than definitive: CM's elevated credit-loss provisions and expense growth remain live risks, and BMO's U.S. diversification could become a comparative advantage if Canadian credit conditions deteriorate. A data-driven system would likely favor CM for trend consistency while flagging credit quality as the key variable to monitor.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BMO is a StrongBuy and CM is a Buy.
BMO in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026
The 10-day moving average for BMO crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 16, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BMO as a result. In 37 of 65 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BMO just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where BMO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
BMO moved above its 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.18% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BMO advanced for three days, in 206 of 384 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 173 of 327 cases where BMO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 53%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for BMO moved out of overbought territory on October 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 19 of the 41 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 46%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 10 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BMO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
BMO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BMO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 67 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.400) is normal, around the industry mean (1.492). P/E Ratio (13.902) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.617). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.518) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.029) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.411) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
Momentum Indicator for CM turns positive, indicating new upward trend
CM saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 70 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 46 of the 70 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CM just turned positive on October 13, 2026. Looking at past instances where CM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
CM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 6 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Following a +2.01% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CM advanced for three days, in 206 of 367 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CM moved out of overbought territory on October 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 18 of the 37 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 49%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 12 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
CM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for CM entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 76 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.788) is normal, around the industry mean (1.492). P/E Ratio (11.104) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.617). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.713) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.026) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.527) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
BMO | CM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 67 Overvalued | 76 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 29 | 20 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 3 | 4 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 72 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BMO's Valuation (67) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CM (76) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that BMO’s stock grew similarly to CM’s over the last 12 months.
CM's Profit vs Risk Rating (20) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry is in the same range as BMO (29) in the Major Banks industry. This means that CM’s stock grew similarly to BMO’s over the last 12 months.
BMO's SMR Rating (3) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CM (4) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that BMO’s stock grew similarly to CM’s over the last 12 months.
BMO's Price Growth Rating (44) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CM (44) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that BMO’s stock grew similarly to CM’s over the last 12 months.
BMO's P/E Growth Rating (55) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CM (72) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that BMO’s stock grew similarly to CM’s over the last 12 months.
| BMO | CM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 46% | 3 days ago 49% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 41% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 54% | 4 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 56% | 25 days ago 52% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 49% | 3 days ago 36% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 42% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BMO’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while CM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- BMO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- CM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BMO’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BMO’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- CM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BMO (@Major Banks) experienced а +1.91% price change this week, while CM (@Major Banks) price change was +2.16% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Major Banks industry was -0.28%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.90%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.45%.
Reported Earning Dates
BMO is expected to report earnings on Dec 03, 2026.
CM is expected to report earnings on Dec 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Major Banks (-0.28% weekly)Major banks are among the biggest companies in the world, often times with global reach and market capitalizations in the multi-billions. Large banks often have multiple arms spanning different disciplines, from deposits, to investment banking, to wealth management and insurance. The biggest banks often have key competitive advantages over smaller players in the industry in terms of brand recognition, cost of capital, and efficiency. Think J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
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