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CM vs RY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) vs. Royal Bank of Canada (RY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CM (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) has delivered strong recent earnings growth and trades at a lower valuation multiple than RY (Royal Bank of Canada).
- RY is Canada's largest bank by market capitalization, with a more diversified global footprint and a premium valuation.
- Both banks have posted record or near-record profitability, supported by strength in capital markets and wealth management.
- CM carries greater relative exposure to Canadian mortgages, while RY faces tariff-related credit and trade headwinds.
- The relative performance gap reflects contrasting momentum, valuation, and risk profiles that appeal to different investor types.
Introduction
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and Royal Bank of Canada are two pillars of Canada's "Big Six" banking sector, yet they occupy different positions in the market. RY is the country's largest lender and one of the world's most valuable banks by market capitalization, while CM is a smaller but fast-improving competitor that has historically traded at a discount to its peers. For traders and investors evaluating relative performance and market positioning, comparing these two names offers a useful lens on how valuation, growth momentum, and risk exposure interact in the current environment. This stock comparison examines recent performance, underlying drivers, and the trade-offs each institution presents.
CM Overview and Recent Performance
CM, or Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, serves roughly 14 million clients across Canada and the United States and is generally regarded as Canada's fifth-largest bank. It has long traded at a discount to peers because of its relatively larger exposure to Canadian residential mortgages. In recent quarters, however, management has emphasized growth in wealth management, U.S. commercial banking, and capital markets, gradually diversifying earnings away from domestic housing.
Recent market activity has reflected improving fundamentals. The bank reported one of the strongest earnings beats among large Canadian lenders in its most recent fiscal quarter, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS, a measure of profit divided by outstanding shares) well above analyst expectations, double-digit revenue growth, and a notable rise in return on equity (ROE, a gauge of profitability relative to shareholder capital). Its capital markets division has been a key source of momentum, while the board raised the quarterly dividend by a double-digit percentage. Despite these gains, the stock continues to carry a lower price-to-earnings multiple than many peers, a signal that some investors remain cautious about credit and housing risk.
RY Overview and Recent Performance
RY, or Royal Bank of Canada, is the country's largest bank and a diversified global financial services provider spanning personal and commercial banking, wealth management, insurance, and capital markets. Its scale and breadth make it a benchmark for the Canadian financial sector and a frequent holding for investors seeking stability and income.
In recent quarters, the bank posted record net income, with broad-based gains across nearly every business line. Wealth management and capital markets were particularly strong, supported by rising client assets and rebounding investment banking activity, while commercial banking delivered record profit. The institution has also returned substantial capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. At the same time, management has flagged emerging headwinds, including newly implemented tariffs on Canadian exports and higher credit provisions concentrated in certain commercial and real estate exposures. These factors have contributed to a slight easing in the share price over recent weeks, even as the stock retains a solid year-to-date gain and a premium valuation relative to the broader North American banking group.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
At the core of this stock comparison are contrasting business models and risk profiles. RY offers broader diversification—geographic, product, and revenue—along with a larger wealth management and capital markets franchise, which supports a premium valuation but also exposes it to global market and trade-related volatility. CM is more concentrated domestically, with a meaningful Canadian mortgage book, yet its improving capital markets and U.S. operations have strengthened earnings quality while keeping its multiple lower.
On growth drivers, both institutions are benefiting from rising fee-based income and active capital markets, but CM has shown sharper recent earnings acceleration, whereas RY emphasizes scale, efficiency gains, and long-term technology investments. In terms of momentum, CM has demonstrated stronger relative performance over the past year, while RY has consolidated recently. Risk factors diverge as well: credit and housing concentration weigh on CM, while tariff exposure and select commercial credit provisions are the more visible concerns for RY. Market sentiment generally rewards RY with a quality premium and assigns CM a valuation discount that reflects lingering caution.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor CM for its stronger recent trend consistency and earnings momentum, combined with a more attractive relative valuation that leaves room for continued re-rating if credit quality remains stable. The bank's rising profitability and diversified growth initiatives present a more favorable risk-reward profile in the current momentum-driven environment. That said, RY retains superior scale, diversification, and stability, which may appeal in more defensive conditions. This probabilistic assessment reflects current positioning rather than a definitive prediction, and relative preferences could shift as catalysts and market conditions evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CM is a Buy and RY is a StrongBuy.
CM's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CM turned positive on October 13, 2026. Looking at past instances where CM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CM as a result. In 47 of 70 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
CM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.66% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CM advanced for three days, in 206 of 368 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
CM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for CM entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 20, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 77 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.766) is normal, around the industry mean (1.531). P/E Ratio (10.966) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.865). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.713) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.026) settles around the average of (0.034) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.527) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
RY's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for RY moved out of oversold territory on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 23 of the 32 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RY as a result. In 35 of 76 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 46%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RY just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where RY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 24 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
Following a +1.51% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RY advanced for three days, in 167 of 347 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
RY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for RY entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 20, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 89 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.089) is normal, around the industry mean (1.531). P/E Ratio (12.706) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.865). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.257) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.034) among similar stocks. RY's P/S Ratio (5.537) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.867).
CM | RY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 25 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 77 Overvalued | 89 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 13 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 4 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | 63 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CM's Valuation (77) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry is in the same range as RY (89) in the Major Banks industry. This means that CM’s stock grew similarly to RY’s over the last 12 months.
RY's Profit vs Risk Rating (13) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CM (22) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that RY’s stock grew similarly to CM’s over the last 12 months.
RY's SMR Rating (3) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CM (4) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that RY’s stock grew similarly to CM’s over the last 12 months.
RY's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CM (45) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that RY’s stock grew similarly to CM’s over the last 12 months.
RY's P/E Growth Rating (63) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CM (65) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that RY’s stock grew similarly to CM’s over the last 12 months.
| CM | RY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 72% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 41% | 1 day ago 39% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 46% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 46% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 46% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 52% | 15 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 34% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 38% | 1 day ago 35% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CM’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while RY’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- RY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CM’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RY’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- RY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CM (@Major Banks) experienced а +2.47% price change this week, while RY (@Major Banks) price change was +2.74% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Major Banks industry was -0.25%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.90%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.09%.
Reported Earning Dates
CM is expected to report earnings on Dec 03, 2026.
RY is expected to report earnings on Dec 02, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Major Banks (-0.25% weekly)Major banks are among the biggest companies in the world, often times with global reach and market capitalizations in the multi-billions. Large banks often have multiple arms spanning different disciplines, from deposits, to investment banking, to wealth management and insurance. The biggest banks often have key competitive advantages over smaller players in the industry in terms of brand recognition, cost of capital, and efficiency. Think J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
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RY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RY has been closely correlated with BNS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RY jumps, then BNS could also see price increases.