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BNTX vs MRNA
BioNTech (BNTX) vs Moderna (MRNA) Earnings Recap: Q4 2025 Results and Oncology Pivot
Key Takeaways
- BioNTech reported Q4 2025 revenue of €907.4 million, beating estimates but down 24% YoY due to lower COVID-19 vaccine sales; full-year revenue rose 4% to €2.87 billion.
- BioNTech posted an adjusted Q4 net loss of €79.5 million and €0.33 diluted EPS loss, missing consensus; guided 2026 revenue to €2.0-€2.3 billion amid oncology focus.
- Moderna's Q4 2025 revenue hit $678 million, topping estimates with EPS loss of $2.11 vs. expected $2.62 loss; full-year revenue fell 40% to $1.9 billion.
- Both firms face declining COVID vaccine demand but advance pipelines: BioNTech eyes six late-stage oncology readouts in 2026; Moderna highlights flu vaccine and oncology progress.
- Post-earnings, BNTX shares dropped sharply while MRNA showed resilience with cost cuts narrowing losses.
- Market caps near parity at ~$21 billion each, but BioNTech's €17.2 billion cash pile offers runway for R&D.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
BioNTech SE (BNTX) and Moderna Inc. (MRNA) pioneered mRNA technology through their COVID-19 vaccines, Comirnaty and Spikevax, generating billions in peak revenues. As pandemic demand fades, both are pivoting to oncology, rare diseases, and next-gen vaccines. Recent Q4 2025 earnings highlight this transition: BioNTech on March 10, 2026, and Moderna on February 13, 2026. This comparison assesses earnings quality, guidance, and positioning in a post-COVID biotech landscape where pipeline execution will drive value.
BioNTech Focus
BioNTech released Q4 and full-year 2025 results on March 10, 2026, revealing revenue of €907.4 million, surpassing estimates of ~€700 million but down from €1.19 billion YoY due to softer COVID-19 vaccine demand in the US and Europe. Full-year revenue climbed 4% to €2.87 billion, bolstered by €613 million from its Bristol Myers Squibb collaboration recognized in Q3.
GAAP net loss widened to €305 million in Q4 (diluted EPS loss €1.25) and €1.14 billion for the year (EPS loss €4.70), reflecting high R&D investment. Adjusted metrics showed Q4 net loss of €79.5 million (diluted EPS loss €0.33, missing -$0.19 consensus) and full-year adjusted net loss €117.1 million (EPS loss €0.48).
Guidance signals caution: 2026 revenue €2.0-€2.3 billion (vs. prior €2.75 billion analyst consensus midpoint), adjusted R&D €2.2-€2.5 billion, SG&A €700-800 million. Positives include six late-stage oncology readouts expected in 2026 across immunomodulators, ADCs, and mRNA therapies, plus €17.2 billion in cash/securities.
Moderna Context
Moderna reported Q4 2025 results on February 13, 2026, with revenue of $678 million exceeding $663 million estimates, primarily from COVID vaccines ($300 million US, $378 million international). Full-year revenue dropped 40% to $1.9 billion from $3.2 billion in 2024, including $126 million other revenue from partnerships.
GAAP net loss was $826 million in Q4 (diluted EPS -$2.11, beating -$2.62 forecast) and $2.8 billion annually (EPS -$7.26). Cost discipline shone: operating expenses fell 30% YoY to ~$2.2 billion, ending 2025 with $8.1 billion cash/investments.
2026 outlook projects up to 10% revenue growth from international markets and launches like mNEXSPIKE. Pipeline advances include Phase 3 flu vaccine data, norovirus enrollment completion, and oncology readouts like Phase 3 adjuvant melanoma. Next earnings eyed for late April 2026.
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
Earnings strength favors Moderna on beats: Q4 EPS surprise of 19% and revenue 2% over consensus, vs. BioNTech's EPS miss despite revenue beat. Growth drivers diverge—BioNTech's full-year top-line edged up 4% on collaborations; Moderna's plunged 40% but costs slashed aggressively.
Risk exposure: Both grapple with COVID revenue cliffs (BioNTech expects further declines; Moderna balances with combos). BioNTech's oncology-heavy pipeline (e.g., pumitamig in eight Phase 3s) carries higher binary risk but catalyst density; Moderna's diversified (respiratory, oncology, rare diseases) with near-term flu/RSV approvals.
Sentiment tilts Moderna amid YTD gains and cash buffer; BioNTech faces pressure from founder transitions and weak guidance. Market caps align ~$21 billion, but BioNTech's €17.2 billion cash (~$18.5 billion) vs. Moderna's $8.1 billion underscores R&D firepower. Analyst targets: BioNTech $134 avg (upside from $84), Moderna $43 (flat from $55).
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI favors MRNA with 65% probability over the next 6-12 months, citing superior earnings beats, 30% cost reductions signaling stability, and balanced pipeline diversification amid BioNTech's guidance cut and leadership risks. BNTX offers higher upside (50% to targets) on oncology catalysts if executed.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BNTX is a Hold and MRNA is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BNTX’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileMRNA’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- BNTX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MRNA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BNTX’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MRNA’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BNTX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MRNA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
BNTX (@Biotechnology) experienced а +7.77% price change this week, while MRNA (@Biotechnology) price change was +5.42% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Biotechnology industry was +7.61%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +9.02%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.47%.
Reported Earning Dates
BNTX is expected to report earnings on May 11, 2026.
MRNA is expected to report earnings on May 01, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Biotechnology (+7.61% weekly)Biotechnology involves genetic or protein engineering to produce medicines/therapies for treating and preventing ailments. The industry also provides crucial ingredients for diagnostics. This multi-billion-dollar industry is heavily focused on research and development, as companies attempt to continually come up with cutting-edge solutions for health. New discoveries for the treatment of diseases provide opportunities for growth for a company in this industry. Discoveries, however, must pass the regulatory approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) before they can make it to markets. Amgen Inc., Gilead Sciences, Inc. and Celgene Corporation are examples of companies in this industry.
| BNTX | MRNA | BNTX / MRNA | |
| Capitalization | 26B | 21.3B | 122% |
| EBITDA | 171M | -2.54B | -7% |
| Gain YTD | 8.109 | 82.163 | 10% |
| P/E Ratio | 161.76 | N/A | - |
| Revenue | 3.15B | 1.92B | 164% |
| Total Cash | 14.5B | 5.8B | 250% |
| Total Debt | 245M | 1.31B | 19% |
BNTX | MRNA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 53 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 4 Undervalued | 76 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 91 | 96 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 4 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 1 | 3 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 42 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BNTX's Valuation (4) in the null industry is significantly better than the same rating for MRNA (76) in the Biotechnology industry. This means that BNTX’s stock grew significantly faster than MRNA’s over the last 12 months.
BNTX's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the null industry is in the same range as MRNA (100) in the Biotechnology industry. This means that BNTX’s stock grew similarly to MRNA’s over the last 12 months.
BNTX's SMR Rating (91) in the null industry is in the same range as MRNA (96) in the Biotechnology industry. This means that BNTX’s stock grew similarly to MRNA’s over the last 12 months.
MRNA's Price Growth Rating (4) in the Biotechnology industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BNTX (55) in the null industry. This means that MRNA’s stock grew somewhat faster than BNTX’s over the last 12 months.
BNTX's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the null industry is in the same range as MRNA (3) in the Biotechnology industry. This means that BNTX’s stock grew similarly to MRNA’s over the last 12 months.
| BNTX | MRNA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 78% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 76% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 79% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 86% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 79% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 80% | 6 days ago 86% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 86% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 85% |
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