MRNA stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Moderna is a commercial-stage biotech that was founded in 2010 and had its initial public offering in 2018... Show more
Why Moderna (MRNA) Stock Is Up +15.1% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- MRNA gained roughly 15.1% over the last 30 days, closing at $221.72 on October 30, up from $192.57 at the end of September.
- The advance extends a rally fueled by positive Phase 3 melanoma results for Moderna's personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, intismeran autogene, developed with Merck (MRK).
- October brought sharp two-way trading: a climb toward $245.81 was followed by a roughly 17.6% single-session drop on October 22 when full trial data was released.
- Moderna remains unprofitable, reporting second-quarter 2026 revenue of $145 million; third-quarter results are scheduled for November 6.
- Analyst sentiment is mixed, with a consensus Hold rating and an average price target below the current share price.
- Explore additional details on Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages for deeper context on MRNA.
- Explore Trending AI Robots to see how automated trading strategies are approaching momentum-driven names.
Moderna (MRNA) Company Overview and Market Position
Moderna is a Cambridge, Massachusetts-based biotechnology company focused on messenger RNA (mRNA) medicines. Its platform programs cells to produce proteins designed to prevent or treat disease. Moderna is best known for its Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine, but its commercial portfolio has expanded to include mFLUSIVA, the first mRNA-based flu vaccine approved in the U.S. for adults 50 and older, and the mNEXSPIKE COVID-19 vaccine. Its pipeline spans oncology, rare diseases, and cardiovascular conditions, anchored by intismeran autogene, a personalized cancer vaccine developed with Merck (MRK). Investors follow MRNA closely because its long-term growth now depends on proving mRNA technology works beyond COVID-19 vaccines.
Moderna (MRNA) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, MRNA advanced about 15.1%, rising from a closing price of $192.57 on September 30 to $221.72 on October 30. The move was far from linear: the stock touched an intraday high of $254.48 on October 21, pulled back sharply on October 22, and then recovered through month-end.
The quarterly move is substantially larger. MRNA traded in the mid-to-high $50s in late July before its August catalyst; from roughly $58 at the end of July to $221.72 at the end of October, the stock has risen more than 280%. That trend reflects a single transformative clinical readout followed by elevated, news-driven volatility rather than a steady appreciation.
What Drove MRNA Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The dominant catalyst was the release of full Phase 3 data for intismeran autogene around the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Congress in late October. Moderna and Merck reported that adding the vaccine to Keytruda cut the risk of melanoma recurrence or death by 42% and the risk of distant metastasis or death by 38% versus Keytruda alone. Some detailed figures briefly appeared early on a medical news site before the formal release; when the data was confirmed on October 22, the stock fell roughly 17.6% in a "sell the news" move, because the result met but did not exceed the efficacy bar many investors had already priced in. Shares subsequently rebounded as several analysts characterized the recurrence-free survival data as solid.
Analyst actions were mixed. RBC Capital maintained a Hold with a $130 target, Morgan Stanley held a Hold rating, and Citi downgraded MRNA to Sell on October 1. Goldman Sachs raised its target to $137 and TD Cowen lifted its target to $90, while UBS, William Blair, and TD Cowen analysts described the data as solid or compelling. Elevated short interest and a rise in options-implied volatility ahead of the November 6 earnings report added to the two-way trading, as did an ongoing debate over valuation, with the stock trading near 35 times trailing sales versus a historical median below 10 times.
What Drove MRNA Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarter's defining event occurred on August 19, when Moderna and Merck announced that the Phase 3 melanoma trial had met its primary goals. The stock surged 177% in a single session, closing at $174.38, the largest one-day gain for an S&P 500 component in 25 years. The move was amplified by short covering: S3 Partners estimated roughly $5.5 billion in single-day mark-to-market losses for short sellers, with short interest having exceeded 13% of the float. The stock then gave back about 23.6% the following session as the squeeze cooled.
The readout reshaped Moderna's investment narrative. Company revenue had fallen from roughly $19.3 billion in 2022 to about $1.9 billion in 2025 as COVID-19 demand declined, and the melanoma result offered a credible path toward diversifying into oncology. Supporting fundamentals included the FDA approval of mFLUSIVA and updated COVID-19 vaccine authorizations, though second-quarter 2026 revenue of $145 million and a GAAP net loss of $782 million underscored that the company remains in a cash-burning, pre-profitability phase.
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MRNA Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
The near-term focus is Moderna's third-quarter 2026 earnings on November 6, where consensus expectations point to a loss per share of roughly $1.11 on revenue near $891 million, and an Analyst Day scheduled for November 12. Beyond earnings, investors are watching the regulatory path for intismeran autogene, including submissions and potential approval around 2027, with overall survival data not expected until late 2029. Expansion into lung, kidney, and bladder cancers will shape how broadly the personalized vaccine platform can scale. Competitive dynamics in mRNA oncology, including developments from peers such as BioNTech (BNTX), cash burn, valuation, and shifting biotech sentiment remain key risks to monitor.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
MRNA's RSI Oscillator leaves overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MRNA moved out of overbought territory on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 26 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 25 of the 26 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MRNA turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 40 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 80%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MRNA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
MRNA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 47 of 62 cases where MRNA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MRNA as a result. In 68 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Following a +7.11% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MRNA advanced for three days, in 215 of 275 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 93 of 130 cases where MRNA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 72%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. MRNA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 12 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (13.093) is normal, around the industry mean (3.162). P/E Ratio (-27.784) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-1.064). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.040) is also within normal values, averaging (9.059). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (131.622) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (25.907) is also within normal values, averaging (439.647).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MRNA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a developer of transformative medicines for patients
Industry Biotechnology