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BP vs CVX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BP (BP) vs. Chevron (CVX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both BP and CVX have delivered strong year-to-date returns exceeding 29% amid elevated oil prices in recent market activity.
- BP reported expected upstream production declines in its Q2 2026 trading statement but highlighted boosts from higher realizations and refining margins.
- CVX maintains a larger market capitalization and lower debt-to-equity ratio, offering greater scale and balance sheet resilience compared to BP.
- Dividend yields stand at approximately 4.56% for BP versus 3.66% for CVX, reflecting differing payout profiles.
- Recent developments include BP’s strategic shifts such as solar asset divestitures, while CVX focuses on upstream growth ahead of its earnings release.
- Sector sentiment remains tied to energy price volatility, with both stocks showing outperformance relative to broader benchmarks in recent weeks.
Introduction
Integrated oil majors BP p.l.c. and Chevron Corporation (CVX) operate within the same global energy sector, making them natural candidates for relative performance analysis. Investors and traders often compare these names to assess differences in scale, geographic exposure, operational efficiency, and capital allocation strategies amid fluctuating commodity prices. This comparison appeals to those seeking exposure to energy equities, including portfolio managers evaluating sector allocation, income-focused investors reviewing dividend sustainability, and active traders monitoring momentum shifts driven by macroeconomic factors such as crude oil benchmarks and refining margins.
BP Overview and Recent Performance
BP p.l.c. is a London-headquartered integrated energy company engaged in oil and gas exploration, production, refining, and marketing, along with low-carbon initiatives. In recent market activity, the stock has posted a year-to-date return of approximately 29.27%, outperforming the FTSE 100. The company’s July 2026 trading statement indicated expected upstream production of 2,170–2,220 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day for Q2, down from the prior quarter due to seasonal maintenance and regional disruptions. Stronger oil and gas realizations, along with improved refining margins, were projected to support earnings. Shares closed at $43.82 on July 24, 2026, with a market capitalization near $112.8 billion and a trailing dividend yield of 4.56%. Sentiment has been influenced by strategic moves including potential solar asset sales and governance developments.
CVX Overview and Recent Performance
Chevron Corporation (CVX) is a Houston-based integrated energy major with upstream exploration and production, downstream refining, and chemicals operations across multiple continents. The stock has achieved a year-to-date return of about 30.24% as of late July 2026, surpassing the S&P 500 benchmark. Shares closed at $194.79 on July 24, 2026, supporting a market capitalization of roughly $387.9 billion. With earnings scheduled for late July, the company benefits from elevated energy prices and expected production growth. Its trailing dividend yield stands at 3.66%. Recent sentiment reflects the broader rally in oil equities, tempered by global supply dynamics and upcoming quarterly results that analysts anticipate could highlight operational resilience.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
BP operates with a more international footprint and higher leverage, reflected in its debt-to-equity ratio near 96%, compared with CVX’s approximately 24%. This positions CVX with greater financial flexibility and lower balance-sheet risk. Growth drivers differ as well: BP emphasizes refining and trading contributions alongside upstream output, while CVX highlights consistent production expansion targets. Recent momentum favors both amid high oil prices, yet BP faces additional near-term catalysts and risks tied to its Q2 update and strategic divestitures. Sector exposure remains comparable, though CVX’s larger scale provides broader diversification across regions. Market sentiment shows both benefiting from energy strength, with relative performance hinging on execution of operational plans and commodity price stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, balance-sheet stability, and relative positioning within the energy sector during recent market activity, Tickeron’s AI models indicate a probabilistic preference for CVX over BP in the current environment. The larger market capitalization, lower leverage, and upcoming earnings visibility contribute to this assessment, though outcomes remain subject to oil price fluctuations and company-specific execution.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BP is a Buy and CVX is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileCVX’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- CVX’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BP’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CVX’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- CVX’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BP (@Integrated Oil) experienced а +0.74% price change this week, while CVX (@Integrated Oil) price change was +0.15% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was +1.10%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +12.67%, and the average quarterly price growth was +19.06%.
Reported Earning Dates
BP is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
CVX is expected to report earnings on Jul 31, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (+1.10% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
| BP | CVX | BP / CVX | |
| Capitalization | 113B | 378B | 30% |
| EBITDA | 35B | 41.6B | 84% |
| Gain YTD | 24.817 | 27.036 | 92% |
| P/E Ratio | 34.23 | 33.10 | 103% |
| Revenue | 195B | 186B | 105% |
| Total Cash | 35.8B | 5.33B | 672% |
| Total Debt | 74.2B | 45.4B | 163% |
BP | CVX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 24 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 27 Undervalued | 55 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 24 | 17 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 84 | 82 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 14 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 99 | 12 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BP's Valuation (27) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as CVX (55). This means that BP’s stock grew similarly to CVX’s over the last 12 months.
CVX's Profit vs Risk Rating (17) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (24). This means that CVX’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
CVX's SMR Rating (82) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (84). This means that CVX’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
CVX's Price Growth Rating (14) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (41). This means that CVX’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
CVX's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Integrated Oil industry is significantly better than the same rating for BP (99). This means that CVX’s stock grew significantly faster than BP’s over the last 12 months.
| BP | CVX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 35% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 49% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 55% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 13 days ago 40% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 40% |
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BP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BP has been closely correlated with SHEL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BP jumps, then SHEL could also see price increases.
CVX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CVX has been closely correlated with XOM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CVX jumps, then XOM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CVX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | 100% | -2.46% | ||
| XOM - CVX | 83% Closely correlated | -1.38% | ||
| CRGY - CVX | 72% Closely correlated | -7.01% | ||
| BP - CVX | 66% Closely correlated | -3.45% | ||
| EQNR - CVX | 66% Closely correlated | -4.63% | ||
| SHEL - CVX | 63% Loosely correlated | -2.27% | ||
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