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BP vs CVX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BP p.l.c. (BP) vs. Chevron Corporation (CVX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BP has outperformed CVX year-to-date with gains of approximately 34% versus 24%.
- BP's first-quarter 2026 underlying profit doubled to $3.2 billion, beating expectations due to robust oil trading.
- CVX offers a larger market capitalization of $374 billion compared to BP's $118 billion, providing greater scale.
- BP provides a higher forward dividend yield of 4.34% versus CVX's 3.85%.
- Recent geopolitical tensions have boosted BP's trading performance more than CVX, which faces Venezuela-related risks.
- Over the past 12 months, BP returned 56% compared to CVX's 33%.
Introduction
BP p.l.c. and Chevron Corporation (CVX) are leading integrated oil and gas majors navigating volatile energy markets influenced by geopolitical events and shifting oil prices. This comparison highlights their relative performance, financial metrics, and market positioning in recent market activity. Investors seeking exposure to the energy sector, particularly those balancing dividend income with growth potential amid fluctuating crude benchmarks, will find value in understanding how these stocks stack up in terms of momentum, stability, and sector dynamics.
BP Overview and Recent Performance
BP p.l.c., a UK-based multinational, operates across upstream exploration, downstream refining, and trading, with increasing focus on low-carbon energy transitions. In recent weeks, BP shares have shown resilience, trading around $46 within a 52-week range of $27.21 to $48.27. Year-to-date gains stand at 34%, supported by a market capitalization of $118 billion and a forward dividend yield of 4.34%. Sentiment shifted positively following first-quarter 2026 results, where underlying profit more than doubled to $3.2 billion, exceeding forecasts due to exceptional oil trading gains amid heightened geopolitical tensions, including oil price spikes from Middle East conflicts. This performance has driven recent upward momentum, though BP remains sensitive to global energy demand fluctuations.
CVX Overview and Recent Performance
Chevron Corporation (CVX), a U.S.-headquartered energy giant, emphasizes Permian Basin production, refining, and chemicals, bolstered by its pending Hess acquisition for growth. Shares recently hovered near $188, within a 52-week range of $133.77 to $214.71, with a substantial $374 billion market cap and 3.85% forward dividend yield. Year-to-date performance reached 24%, but recent weeks saw a pullback amid broader market rotations away from energy. Key influences include governance challenges in Venezuela operations and anticipation of softer first-quarter earnings, with expected EPS declines despite solid revenue projections. Nonetheless, strong fundamentals and holdings by investors like Berkshire Hathaway sustain positive long-term sentiment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both BP and CVX operate integrated models spanning exploration, production, refining, and marketing, but CVX leans heavier on U.S. shale assets like the Permian for growth, while BP excels in global trading and refining. Recent momentum favors BP with superior 12-month returns of 56% versus 33%, driven by trading profits. Risk profiles differ, with BP showing lower recent beta amid earnings stability, contrasting CVX's exposure to geopolitical risks in Venezuela. Sector exposure is similar in oil & gas, but CVX's scale offers better resilience, trading off against BP's higher yield and dividend growth potential. Market sentiment tilts toward BP post-earnings, while CVX benefits from acquisition catalysts.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI analysis currently leans toward BP for traders eyeing short- to medium-term opportunities, owing to consistent recent momentum, earnings outperformance, and elevated dividend yield amid supportive oil dynamics. CVX holds appeal for stability-focused investors given its larger footprint and production growth prospects, though near-term headwinds temper enthusiasm. Observable trends suggest higher probability of relative strength in BP under prevailing conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BP is a StrongBuy and CVX is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileCVX’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- BP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- CVX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BP’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CVX’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BP’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 6 bearish.
- CVX’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BP (@Integrated Oil) experienced а -4.87% price change this week, while CVX (@Integrated Oil) price change was -4.67% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was -4.78%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.33%, and the average quarterly price growth was +27.22%.
Reported Earning Dates
BP is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
CVX is expected to report earnings on Jul 24, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (-4.78% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
| BP | CVX | BP / CVX | |
| Capitalization | 111B | 359B | 31% |
| EBITDA | 35B | 41.6B | 84% |
| Gain YTD | 22.693 | 20.618 | 110% |
| P/E Ratio | 33.65 | 31.43 | 107% |
| Revenue | 195B | 186B | 105% |
| Total Cash | 35.8B | 5.33B | 672% |
| Total Debt | 74.2B | 45.4B | 163% |
BP | CVX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 79 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 25 Undervalued | 34 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 24 | 16 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 84 | 82 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 99 | 11 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BP's Valuation (25) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as CVX (34). This means that BP’s stock grew similarly to CVX’s over the last 12 months.
CVX's Profit vs Risk Rating (16) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (24). This means that CVX’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
CVX's SMR Rating (82) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (84). This means that CVX’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
CVX's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (47). This means that CVX’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
CVX's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Integrated Oil industry is significantly better than the same rating for BP (99). This means that CVX’s stock grew significantly faster than BP’s over the last 12 months.
| BP | CVX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 4 days ago 44% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 4 days ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 4 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 4 days ago 41% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 4 days ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 59% | 13 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 51% | 11 days ago 42% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 4 days ago 60% |
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CVX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CVX has been closely correlated with XOM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CVX jumps, then XOM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CVX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | 100% | -3.64% | ||
| XOM - CVX | 82% Closely correlated | -4.14% | ||
| CRGY - CVX | 72% Closely correlated | -4.84% | ||
| EQNR - CVX | 65% Loosely correlated | -5.31% | ||
| BP - CVX | 64% Loosely correlated | -2.78% | ||
| SHEL - CVX | 61% Loosely correlated | -3.56% | ||
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