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BP vs CVX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BP plc (BP) vs. Chevron Corporation (CVX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BP has delivered stronger year-to-date performance than CVX, with gains of approximately 34% compared to roughly 24% for CVX.
- BP reported first-quarter 2026 underlying replacement cost profit of $3.2 billion, doubling the prior quarter’s result amid robust oil trading.
- CVX maintains a larger market capitalization of approximately $374 billion versus BP’s $118 billion, offering greater scale and diversification.
- BP currently offers a higher forward dividend yield of around 4.34% compared to CVX’s approximately 3.85%.
- Both companies operate in the integrated oil and gas sector, with exposure to upstream production, downstream refining, and trading activities that respond to global energy prices and demand trends.
- Recent market activity shows both stocks trading in the middle of their 52-week ranges, with BP closing near $39.21 and CVX near $175.97 as of July 8, 2026.
Introduction
Investors and traders frequently compare BP and CVX because both are leading integrated energy companies with significant exposure to oil and gas markets. This analysis examines their recent relative performance, business profiles, and market positioning to help market participants evaluate potential opportunities or risks. The comparison is particularly relevant for those focused on the energy sector, dividend income strategies, or assessing how macroeconomic factors such as commodity prices influence large-cap energy equities. Data draws from verifiable sources including company reports and market platforms to provide an objective view of current conditions.
BP Overview and Recent Performance
BP plc is a global integrated energy company engaged in exploration, production, refining, and marketing of oil and gas, alongside growing interests in lower-carbon solutions. In recent weeks, BP stock has shown resilience, closing at $39.21 on July 8, 2026, up 1.55% amid broader market movements. Year-to-date gains reached approximately 34%, supported by strong first-quarter 2026 results that included underlying replacement cost profit of $3.2 billion—double the prior quarter—driven by exceptional oil trading contributions and midstream performance. Sentiment has been influenced by strategic divestments, such as the sale of its Bay du Nord stake, and preparations for upcoming earnings. The stock trades within its 52-week range of $31.01 to $48.27, reflecting sensitivity to energy price fluctuations and operational execution.
CVX Overview and Recent Performance
Chevron Corporation is a major integrated energy company with operations spanning upstream exploration and production, downstream refining, and chemicals, supported by a substantial global asset base. In recent market activity, CVX closed at $175.97 on July 8, 2026, up 1.13%. Year-to-date performance stands at approximately 24%, with the stock positioned in the middle of its 52-week range of $146.49 to $214.71. Recent quarterly results and operational updates have highlighted steady production and cost management, though the shares have experienced some pullback from earlier highs. Market sentiment reflects the company’s scale and focus on shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, tempered by typical sector volatility tied to crude oil prices and global demand patterns.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
BP and CVX share integrated oil-and-gas business models but differ in scale, geographic emphasis, and recent momentum. CVX benefits from larger market capitalization and a more diversified U.S.-centric asset base, potentially offering greater stability during sector rotations. In contrast, BP has posted stronger year-to-date returns and higher dividend yield, supported by robust trading results in the first quarter. Both face similar risk factors including commodity price swings, regulatory pressures, and transition-related capital allocation. Market sentiment currently favors BP on relative performance metrics, while CVX appeals to investors seeking scale and consistent payout history. Trade-offs center on growth catalysts versus defensive positioning within the energy sector.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as recent trend consistency, profit momentum, and relative outperformance, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a modestly higher probability of favorable positioning to BP over CVX. Stronger year-to-date returns and elevated first-quarter results provide measurable support for this assessment, though both equities remain subject to energy-market volatility. The evaluation emphasizes data-driven signals rather than forecasts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BP is a Hold and CVX is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileCVX’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- BP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- CVX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CVX’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- CVX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
BP (@Integrated Oil) experienced а +7.23% price change this week, while CVX (@Integrated Oil) price change was +4.45% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was +5.01%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.74%, and the average quarterly price growth was +24.71%.
Reported Earning Dates
BP is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
CVX is expected to report earnings on Jul 31, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (+5.01% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
| BP | CVX | BP / CVX | |
| Capitalization | 103B | 362B | 28% |
| EBITDA | 35B | 41.6B | 84% |
| Gain YTD | 22.132 | 21.527 | 103% |
| P/E Ratio | 33.50 | 31.67 | 106% |
| Revenue | 195B | 186B | 105% |
| Total Cash | 35.8B | 5.33B | 672% |
| Total Debt | 74.2B | 45.4B | 163% |
BP | CVX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 54 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 24 Undervalued | 38 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 21 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 84 | 82 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 98 | 11 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BP's Valuation (24) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as CVX (38). This means that BP’s stock grew similarly to CVX’s over the last 12 months.
CVX's Profit vs Risk Rating (21) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (27). This means that CVX’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
CVX's SMR Rating (82) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (84). This means that CVX’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
CVX's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (52). This means that CVX’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
CVX's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Integrated Oil industry is significantly better than the same rating for BP (98). This means that CVX’s stock grew significantly faster than BP’s over the last 12 months.
| BP | CVX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 37% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 3 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 52% | 15 days ago 42% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 50% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 23% |
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BP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BP has been closely correlated with SHEL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BP jumps, then SHEL could also see price increases.
CVX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CVX has been closely correlated with XOM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CVX jumps, then XOM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CVX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | 100% | -0.24% | ||
| XOM - CVX | 82% Closely correlated | +0.40% | ||
| CRGY - CVX | 72% Closely correlated | +0.20% | ||
| EQNR - CVX | 67% Closely correlated | +0.36% | ||
| BP - CVX | 66% Closely correlated | +1.40% | ||
| SHEL - CVX | 63% Loosely correlated | +0.51% | ||
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