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CVX vs XOM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Chevron Corporation (CVX) vs. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both CVX and XOM have declined around 10% over the past 30 days amid oil price drops following geopolitical de-escalation.
- XOM outperforms year-to-date with a 26.3% gain compared to CVX's 24.3%.
- XOM boasts a larger market cap at $628 billion versus CVX's $374 billion, reflecting greater scale.
- CVX offers a higher dividend yield of 3.85% compared to XOM's 2.78%.
- XOM shows stronger profitability with an 8.9% profit margin and 11.1% return on equity (ROE, a measure of profitability relative to shareholders' equity) versus CVX's 6.7% and 7.2%.
- Upcoming Q1 earnings for both on May 1 could highlight impacts from recent oil volatility tied to Iran developments.
Introduction
Chevron Corporation (CVX) and Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), two of the largest integrated oil majors, offer investors exposure to upstream exploration, downstream refining, and chemicals amid volatile energy markets. This comparison is particularly relevant for dividend-focused investors seeking stability and growth-oriented traders eyeing oil price swings influenced by geopolitics like the recent Iran conflict. With both stocks showing resilience year-to-date despite recent pullbacks, understanding their relative performance, financial metrics, and market positioning aids informed decision-making in the current environment.
CVX Overview and Recent Performance
Chevron Corporation operates as an integrated energy company with significant upstream production in the Permian Basin and downstream refining capabilities. In recent market activity, CVX shares have pulled back approximately 10% over the past 30 days, trading around $185 as of late April 2026, down from early-month levels near $200. This decline mirrors broader oil sector weakness following signs of Iran ceasefire progress, which eased supply concerns after earlier war-driven rallies. Sentiment has been tempered by Q1 2026 guidance indicating headwinds from $2.7–$3.7 billion in timing effects and working capital outflows. Year-to-date gains stand at 24%, supported by its 3.85% dividend yield and market cap of $374 billion.
XOM Overview and Recent Performance
Exxon Mobil Corporation is a global integrated supermajor emphasizing upstream growth in the Permian Basin and Guyana, alongside downstream and low-carbon initiatives. XOM shares have similarly retreated about 10% in recent weeks, closing near $148 in late April 2026 after March highs around $170, pressured by the same oil price dip post-Iran de-escalation. Production milestones like Guyana's Yellowtail field have bolstered longer-term confidence, though Q1 outlooks note offsets from timing effects despite higher liquids prices. With a year-to-date return of 26.3% and $628 billion market cap, its scale and 2.78% yield underpin performance amid volatility.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both CVX and XOM follow integrated business models blending upstream production and downstream refining, but XOM edges in growth drivers via aggressive expansion in high-return basins like Permian and Guyana, contrasting CVX's balanced Permian focus. Recent momentum favors XOM with superior YTD gains and ROE, though both face identical geopolitical risks from oil supply disruptions. CVX provides a dividend edge for income seekers, while XOM's larger scale offers better sector exposure resilience. Market sentiment reflects this trade-off, with XOM commanding a premium valuation on stronger profitability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward XOM based on its trend consistency, superior year-to-date performance, higher profitability margins, and robust growth catalysts in key producing regions. While CVX excels in dividend appeal, XOM's relative positioning suggests greater probability of outperformance in the near term amid energy sector dynamics.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CVX is a Hold and XOM is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CVX’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileXOM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CVX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- XOM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CVX’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while XOM’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CVX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- XOM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
Price Growth
CVX (@Integrated Oil) experienced а +2.66% price change this week, while XOM (@Integrated Oil) price change was +3.21% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was +1.55%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.96%, and the average quarterly price growth was +27.32%.
Reported Earning Dates
CVX is expected to report earnings on Jul 24, 2026.
XOM is expected to report earnings on Jul 24, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (+1.55% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
| CVX | XOM | CVX / XOM | |
| Capitalization | 373B | 621B | 60% |
| EBITDA | 41.6B | 64.4B | 65% |
| Gain YTD | 25.238 | 26.262 | 96% |
| P/E Ratio | 32.63 | 25.24 | 129% |
| Revenue | 186B | 326B | 57% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 40.8B | 43.5B | 94% |
CVX | XOM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 76 | 70 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 34 Fair valued | 45 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 15 | 6 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 83 | 73 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 10 | 12 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CVX's Valuation (34) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as XOM (45). This means that CVX’s stock grew similarly to XOM’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as CVX (15). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to CVX’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's SMR Rating (73) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as CVX (83). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to CVX’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as CVX (44). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to CVX’s over the last 12 months.
CVX's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as XOM (12). This means that CVX’s stock grew similarly to XOM’s over the last 12 months.
| CVX | XOM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 60% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 41% | 3 days ago 54% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 39% | 3 days ago 48% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 59% | 5 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 42% | 3 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 49% | 3 days ago 49% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 56% |
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XOM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, XOM has been closely correlated with CVX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if XOM jumps, then CVX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To XOM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 100% | -1.39% | ||
| CVX - XOM | 82% Closely correlated | -0.55% | ||
| EQNR - XOM | 69% Closely correlated | -1.89% | ||
| CRGY - XOM | 69% Closely correlated | -5.41% | ||
| CVE - XOM | 69% Closely correlated | -5.27% | ||
| BP - XOM | 68% Closely correlated | -2.43% | ||
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