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CVX vs XOM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Chevron (CVX) vs. ExxonMobil (XOM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both CVX and XOM have delivered nearly identical year-to-date gains (around 48%), each reaching 52-week highs on a rally in crude prices.
- XOM brings greater operating scale and a more diversified downstream (refining and chemicals) business, while CVX holds a stronger near-term earnings growth outlook following its Hess acquisition.
- CVX generated $18.1 billion in free cash flow and cut debt by $8.4 billion in its latest quarter, supporting a higher dividend yield of roughly 3%.
- XOM leads on cumulative structural cost savings (about $16.3 billion) and shareholder distributions, returning $9.4 billion in its most recent quarter.
- Both companies share exposure to the Permian Basin and Guyana, but differ on Venezuela, chemicals, and data-center power agreements as growth catalysts.
- For more on each company's latest developments, explore CVX Major News and CVX Today's Price Move, plus XOM Major News and XOM Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated strategies are positioning across the market, visit Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Chevron Corporation (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) are the two largest U.S.-listed integrated energy majors, and their shares have moved in near lockstep through recent weeks as geopolitical supply disruptions pushed Brent crude above $110 per barrel. For traders and investors weighing exposure to oil, this stock comparison highlights meaningful differences beneath similar headline returns — in scale, portfolio mix, growth drivers, and cash-return profiles. Those assessing sector positioning, momentum, or relative performance between these bellwethers will find the trade-offs relevant to both short-term trading decisions and longer-term energy allocation.
CVX Overview and Recent Performance
CVX operates across the full energy value chain, from upstream exploration and production to downstream refining, fuels, and lubricants, alongside growing lower-carbon investments. Its market positioning changed materially after completing the acquisition of Hess, which added high-margin exposure to Guyana's Stabroek block and expanded Permian Basin output. In its latest reported quarter, worldwide production reached about 4.07 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up roughly 20% year over year.
Recent market activity has carried the stock to new highs, with the price trading above both its short- and long-term moving averages — a hallmark of a sustained uptrend. Sentiment has been supported by strong cash generation, analyst price-target increases, and strategic moves such as a planned sale of mature Gulf of Mexico assets and a multi-billion-dollar Venezuela program aimed at doubling production. A 20-year agreement to supply power to a Microsoft data center has also drawn attention as a new channel for natural gas demand.
XOM Overview and Recent Performance
XOM is the larger and more diversified of the two, spanning upstream production, refining, chemicals, and specialty products. In its latest quarter it produced roughly 4.51 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, with Permian output exceeding 1.8 million barrels daily and a fifth Guyana production vessel scheduled to add 250,000 barrels per day of capacity. This breadth gives the company additional ways to capture value when refining margins and chemical spreads strengthen.
The stock has also climbed to record territory in recent weeks, outperforming its sector over the past month. Momentum has been reinforced by record diesel production, $16.3 billion in cumulative structural cost savings, and $9.4 billion in quarterly shareholder distributions split between dividends and buybacks. Management's stated path toward $20 billion in cost savings by 2030 and continued Permian and Guyana growth underpin the constructive market view, even as refining and chemical earnings remain sensitive to product spreads.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast is scale versus growth. XOM commands a market capitalization near $750 billion and generates higher absolute cash flow, backed by a chemicals and specialty-products segment that diversifies earnings beyond crude. CVX, with a market value near $450 billion, is more levered to the fresh production and synergies from Hess, and analysts project stronger 2026 earnings-per-share growth — on the order of 148% versus roughly 95% for XOM.
On shareholder returns, the two diverge in style. CVX offers a higher dividend yield near 3%, while XOM pairs a lower yield (about 2.3%) with larger buybacks. Risk profiles also differ: CVX carries added geopolitical exposure through its Venezuela commitments, whereas XOM faces greater sensitivity to refining and chemical margin swings. On valuation, the two trade at comparable forward price-to-sales multiples, leaving momentum, catalysts, and portfolio preferences as the deciding factors.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward CVX in the current environment. The stock's combination of a firmer upward trend, a larger projected earnings acceleration tied to the Hess integration, and a higher dividend yield offers a marginally more favorable balance of momentum and stability. That said, XOM remains a close peer with superior scale and diversified cash flows, and its relative positioning could narrow quickly if refining margins or chemical spreads outperform. The assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting trend consistency and catalysts rather than a recommendation.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CVX is a Buy and XOM is a Buy.
CVX in +2.76% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on October 30, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where CVX advanced for three days, in 229 of 378 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CVX as a result. In 47 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CVX just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where CVX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 49%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 192 of 342 cases where CVX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 56%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 16 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CVX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 40%.
CVX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 26, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. CVX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 73 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.433) is normal, around the industry mean (1.710). CVX has a moderately high P/E Ratio (22.603) as compared to the industry average of (11.510). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.903) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.030) settles around the average of (0.047) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.004) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
XOM's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XOM turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where XOM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 01, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XOM as a result. In 64 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Following a +2.87% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XOM advanced for three days, in 232 of 371 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 192 of 312 cases where XOM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 21 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XOM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
XOM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 26, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. XOM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: XOM's P/B Ratio (2.968) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.710). XOM has a moderately high P/E Ratio (24.099) as compared to the industry average of (11.510). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.392) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.047) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.911) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
CVX | XOM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 73 Overvalued | 87 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 6 | 4 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 63 | 62 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 8 | 7 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 26 | 9 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CVX's Valuation (73) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as XOM (87). This means that CVX’s stock grew similarly to XOM’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's Profit vs Risk Rating (4) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as CVX (6). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to CVX’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's SMR Rating (62) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as CVX (63). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to CVX’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's Price Growth Rating (7) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as CVX (8). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to CVX’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as CVX (26). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to CVX’s over the last 12 months.
| CVX | XOM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 53% | 4 days ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 48% | 4 days ago 49% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 53% | 4 days ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 49% | 4 days ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 40% | 14 days ago 44% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 44% | 4 days ago 58% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 56% | 4 days ago 62% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CVX’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while XOM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- CVX’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- XOM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CVX’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while XOM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CVX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- XOM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CVX (@Integrated Oil) experienced а +0.99% price change this week, while XOM (@Integrated Oil) price change was +2.21% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was -2.05%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.68%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.91%.
Reported Earning Dates
CVX is expected to report earnings on Jan 22, 2027.
XOM is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (-2.05% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
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XOM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, XOM has been closely correlated with CVX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if XOM jumps, then CVX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To XOM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 100% | +2.16% | ||
| CVX - XOM | 83% Closely correlated | +1.75% | ||
| EQNR - XOM | 74% Closely correlated | +2.46% | ||
| BP - XOM | 71% Closely correlated | +0.08% | ||
| CRGY - XOM | 69% Closely correlated | +3.27% | ||
| CVE - XOM | 69% Closely correlated | +1.87% | ||
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