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CVX vs XOM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Chevron (CVX) vs. ExxonMobil (XOM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both CVX and XOM have delivered strong year-to-date gains amid elevated oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
- Chevron reported record U.S. upstream production and refinery throughput in its second quarter, supported by synergies from the Hess acquisition and expansion plans in Venezuela.
- ExxonMobil achieved its highest upstream production in more than two decades (excluding temporary disruptions) and continued aggressive share repurchases alongside cost reductions.
- Chevron trades at a higher dividend yield compared with ExxonMobil, while the latter maintains a larger market capitalization and broader global project pipeline, including Guyana and LNG initiatives.
- Recent market activity shows both stocks benefiting from integrated business models that capture value across upstream, refining, and chemicals segments.
- Sector sentiment remains constructive for major integrated oil companies due to supply constraints and sustained demand for reliable energy.
Introduction
Chevron Corporation (CVX) and Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) represent two of the largest integrated energy companies in the United States. Investors and traders often compare these names to assess relative performance within the energy sector, evaluate dividend sustainability, and gauge exposure to commodity price fluctuations and geopolitical developments. This comparison is particularly relevant for those seeking exposure to oil and gas majors with established production bases, refining operations, and capital-return programs in the current environment of elevated energy prices and evolving global supply dynamics.
CVX Overview and Recent Performance
Chevron operates as an integrated energy company with significant upstream production in the Permian Basin and Gulf of America, along with downstream refining and chemicals businesses. In recent weeks, the stock has traded near all-time highs, supported by strong second-quarter results that included record U.S. upstream output and refinery crude throughput. Key developments include a planned $7 billion investment over five years to expand operations in Venezuela and progress on LNG growth initiatives in Argentina and the Mediterranean. Market sentiment has been bolstered by higher commodity prices and execution on cost-reduction targets, contributing to solid relative performance amid broader energy sector strength.
XOM Overview and Recent Performance
ExxonMobil is the largest U.S. integrated oil major by market capitalization, with extensive upstream assets including record Permian production and major projects in Guyana. Recent market activity has reflected resilient fundamentals, highlighted by second-quarter earnings that featured the highest upstream production levels in more than two decades (excluding temporary Middle East disruptions) and substantial free cash flow generation. The company has maintained focus on structural cost savings and shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks. Sentiment has been supported by LNG expansion ambitions, with expectations that U.S. supply could account for a significant share of global liquefied natural gas by 2030.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both companies maintain integrated business models that provide resilience across commodity cycles, yet differences emerge in scale and strategic emphasis. ExxonMobil’s larger production base and project pipeline, including Guyana developments, offer broader exposure to long-cycle growth, while Chevron’s recent Hess integration has accelerated U.S. output gains. In terms of recent momentum, Chevron has benefited from Venezuela-related catalysts and higher dividend yield, whereas ExxonMobil has emphasized consistent cost discipline and capital returns. Risk factors for both include oil price volatility and regulatory developments in key regions, though their diversified operations mitigate some sector-specific pressures. Market sentiment favors integrated majors with strong balance sheets capable of navigating supply disruptions.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, production stability, and relative positioning amid current energy market conditions, Tickeron’s AI models indicate a slight probabilistic preference for CVX over XOM in the near term. This assessment draws from Chevron’s recent execution on high-impact projects and production records, though outcomes remain dependent on commodity price trajectories and broader macroeconomic influences.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CVX is a StrongBuy and XOM is a StrongBuy.
| CVX | XOM | CVX / XOM | |
| Capitalization | 411B | 672B | 61% |
| EBITDA | 56B | 75.8B | 74% |
| Gain YTD | 37.365 | 34.183 | 109% |
| P/E Ratio | 20.16 | 21.05 | 96% |
| Revenue | 209B | 361B | 58% |
| Total Cash | 8.53B | 10.6B | 80% |
| Total Debt | 37.1B | 42.4B | 88% |
CVX | XOM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 72 | 19 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 43 Fair valued | 62 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 63 | 63 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 19 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CVX's Valuation (43) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as XOM (62). This means that CVX’s stock grew similarly to XOM’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as CVX (10). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to CVX’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's SMR Rating (63) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as CVX (63). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to CVX’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's Price Growth Rating (42) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as CVX (46). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to CVX’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's P/E Growth Rating (19) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as CVX (39). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to CVX’s over the last 12 months.
| CVX | XOM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 53% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 44% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 44% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 36% | 2 days ago 45% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 62% | 12 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 41% | 6 days ago 43% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 5 days ago 48% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 62% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CVX’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while XOM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CVX’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- XOM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CVX’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while XOM’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CVX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- XOM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CVX (@Integrated Oil) experienced а -4.01% price change this week, while XOM (@Integrated Oil) price change was -4.11% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was -6.27%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.89%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.01%.
Reported Earning Dates
CVX is expected to report earnings on Oct 23, 2026.
XOM is expected to report earnings on Oct 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (-6.27% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
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CVX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CVX has been closely correlated with XOM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CVX jumps, then XOM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CVX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | 100% | -2.79% | ||
| XOM - CVX | 84% Closely correlated | -3.20% | ||
| CRGY - CVX | 72% Closely correlated | -4.60% | ||
| BP - CVX | 70% Closely correlated | -3.19% | ||
| EQNR - CVX | 69% Closely correlated | -3.63% | ||
| SHEL - CVX | 66% Loosely correlated | -1.34% | ||
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XOM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, XOM has been closely correlated with CVX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if XOM jumps, then CVX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To XOM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 100% | -3.20% | ||
| CVX - XOM | 83% Closely correlated | -2.79% | ||
| EQNR - XOM | 73% Closely correlated | -3.63% | ||
| BP - XOM | 71% Closely correlated | -3.19% | ||
| CRGY - XOM | 69% Closely correlated | -4.60% | ||
| CVE - XOM | 69% Closely correlated | -3.22% | ||
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