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BP vs SHEL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BP p.l.c. (BP) vs. Shell plc (SHEL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BP has outperformed SHEL in recent market activity, with year-to-date returns around 35% compared to SHEL's 22%.
- BP delivered strong Q1 2026 results, including $3.2 billion in underlying net income, driven by refining margins and oil trading.
- SHEL offers a lower price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 14.8 versus BP's 37.7, suggesting potentially better value on earnings multiples.
- BP provides a higher dividend yield near 4.3%, appealing to income-focused investors, while SHEL yields around 3.3%.
- Both stocks have benefited from elevated oil prices amid geopolitical tensions, but BP shows stronger momentum in recent weeks.
- SHEL maintains a larger market capitalization at $248 billion versus BP's $120 billion, reflecting scale advantages.
Introduction
BP p.l.c. (BP) and Shell plc (SHEL) are two leading integrated energy supermajors, both headquartered in London and heavily exposed to oil and gas production, refining, and trading. This comparison is particularly relevant for traders navigating volatile energy markets influenced by geopolitical events and commodity price swings, as well as long-term investors seeking exposure to traditional energy with transition elements. In recent market activity, both stocks have shown resilience amid rising oil prices, but differences in performance, valuation, and strategic focus offer key insights for portfolio positioning and relative performance analysis.
BP Overview and Recent Performance
BP p.l.c. operates across gas and low-carbon energy, oil production, and customer products segments, with a global footprint in exploration, refining, and renewables like solar and hydrogen. In recent quarters, BP's shares have exhibited strong upward momentum, gaining approximately 35% year-to-date and 76% over the past year, trading near $46 with a 52-week range of $28 to $48. This performance has been fueled by robust Q1 2026 results, featuring $3.2 billion in underlying net income and strong refining margins alongside exceptional oil trading gains, despite upstream challenges. Sentiment has shifted positively on higher oil prices linked to Middle East tensions, though concerns linger over potential North Sea exits and valuation debates given a high P/E ratio. Overall, BP's trading turnaround and cash flow resilience have bolstered investor confidence in recent weeks.
SHEL Overview and Recent Performance
Shell plc engages in integrated gas, upstream exploration, marketing, chemicals, and renewables, producing oil, natural gas, and low-carbon fuels worldwide. SHEL's American Depositary Receipts trade around $89, with year-to-date gains of 22% and 44% over the past year, within a 52-week range of $65 to $95. Recent updates indicate mixed Q1 2026 dynamics, with gas trading weakness offset by solid oil optimization and trading performance, alongside deals like the ARC Resources acquisition enhancing LNG exposure. Market sentiment reflects optimism on buyback potential exceeding $20 billion and stable dividends, though production guidance adjustments amid regional uncertainties have tempered gains. SHEL's larger scale and profitability metrics continue to support steady performance in volatile conditions.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both BP and SHEL share integrated business models centered on oil and gas, with downstream refining and trading providing buffers against upstream volatility. However, BP leans toward aggressive trading and higher dividend payouts (4.3% yield), contrasting SHEL's emphasis on scale (larger market cap) and LNG growth drivers like recent Canadian deals. Recent momentum favors BP, with superior YTD and one-year returns amid oil price surges, while SHEL exhibits greater stability via higher profitability (6.7% profit margin vs. BP's 1.7%) and lower valuation (P/E 14.8 vs. 37.7). Risk factors include geopolitical oil exposure for both, but BP faces North Sea scrutiny, whereas SHEL contends with gas market softness. Sector-wise, both balance fossil fuels with renewables, yet BP's higher beta signals amplified market sensitivity.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI analysis currently leans toward BP over SHEL, based on superior trend consistency, elevated year-to-date momentum, and resilient Q1 earnings amid commodity strength. BP's outperformance in recent market positioning suggests higher probability of continued upside in the near term, though SHEL's valuation and cash generation offer compelling counterpoints for stability seekers.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BP is a Hold and SHEL is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileSHEL’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- BP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- SHEL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SHEL’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- SHEL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BP (@Integrated Oil) experienced а -0.44% price change this week, while SHEL (@Integrated Oil) price change was +0.30% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was -4.43%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.95%, and the average quarterly price growth was +27.55%.
Reported Earning Dates
BP is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
SHEL is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (-4.43% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
| BP | SHEL | BP / SHEL | |
| Capitalization | 111B | 240B | 46% |
| EBITDA | 35B | 57.7B | 61% |
| Gain YTD | 26.204 | 18.732 | 140% |
| P/E Ratio | 34.61 | 13.34 | 259% |
| Revenue | 195B | 267B | 73% |
| Total Cash | 35.8B | 23.1B | 155% |
| Total Debt | 74.2B | 75.6B | 98% |
BP | SHEL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 58 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 24 Undervalued | 29 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 6 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 84 | 70 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 99 | 71 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BP's Valuation (24) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as SHEL (29) in the null industry. This means that BP’s stock grew similarly to SHEL’s over the last 12 months.
SHEL's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the null industry is in the same range as BP (23) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that SHEL’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
SHEL's SMR Rating (70) in the null industry is in the same range as BP (84) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that SHEL’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
BP's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as SHEL (49) in the null industry. This means that BP’s stock grew similarly to SHEL’s over the last 12 months.
SHEL's P/E Growth Rating (71) in the null industry is in the same range as BP (99) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that SHEL’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
| BP | SHEL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 46% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 49% | 4 days ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 51% | 4 days ago 53% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 52% | 4 days ago 55% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 59% | 14 days ago 51% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 51% | 4 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 63% | 8 days ago 66% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 50% | 4 days ago 34% |
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BP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BP has been closely correlated with SHEL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BP jumps, then SHEL could also see price increases.