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BP vs SHEL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BP (BP) vs. Shell (SHEL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both BP and SHEL are integrated energy supermajors whose recent earnings have been lifted by higher oil and gas prices following geopolitical disruption in the Middle East.
- BP is in the early stages of a turnaround under new leadership, pivoting back toward traditional oil and gas, while Shell is reinforcing an already diversified, trading-heavy portfolio.
- Shell has delivered larger absolute profits and more stable momentum, while BP trades at a notable valuation discount and carries a heavier relative debt-reduction focus.
- Both companies have leaned on their trading and optimization desks to capture windfall gains during a period of unusual energy-market volatility.
- For more detail, explore BP Major News and BP Today's Price Move, as well as SHEL Major News and SHEL Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated systems are currently positioning across thousands of tickers, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
BP p.l.c. and Shell plc are two of the world's largest integrated energy companies, spanning upstream exploration and production, refining, marketing, and trading. Because they share broad exposure to crude oil and natural gas prices, investors and traders frequently compare them when assessing relative value, momentum, and market positioning. This stock comparison examines how each name has behaved through a period defined by energy-price spikes, supply disruption, and shifting corporate strategies. It is most relevant to energy-sector investors weighing valuation against stability, as well as traders tracking relative performance between two closely correlated but strategically distinct peers.
BP Overview and Recent Performance
BP is a British integrated energy major that has been navigating a leadership transition and a strategic reset. A new chief executive took the reins in the spring of 2026 with a mandate to stabilize the company after a turbulent stretch marked by write-offs and a retreat from an earlier renewables-first ambition. In response, BP has refocused on its traditional oil and gas business, simplified its structure, and announced a series of asset divestments, including its North Sea business and portions of its low-carbon portfolio.
Recent market activity has favored BP's trading and midstream operations, which benefited from heightened price volatility. Underlying profit more than doubled year over year in the first quarter, and second-quarter earnings reached their highest level in several years, supported by strong refining margins and exceptional trading results. This cash generation allowed BP to cut net debt faster than planned, though the company also flagged substantial non-cash impairment charges tied to its gas and low-carbon energy businesses. Analysts have noted that BP still trades at a discount to Shell and other peers, a gap some view as an opportunity if operational delivery continues to improve.
SHEL Overview and Recent Performance
SHEL, Europe's largest energy company by market value, operates a broadly diversified, integrated model spanning upstream, integrated gas, refining, chemicals, and marketing, anchored by one of the industry's largest trading and optimization platforms. Through the recent volatility, Shell's trading desk and refining operations have been meaningful earnings drivers, and the company has reported sequential profit gains across most segments.
Shell's first-quarter adjusted earnings rose sharply year over year, and second-quarter results beat consensus on higher realized prices and margins. In a notable strategic move, Shell agreed to acquire Canadian shale producer ARC Resources, deepening its natural gas and LNG (liquefied natural gas) exposure and lifting near-term capital expenditure guidance. Management has continued returning cash to shareholders through a quarterly buyback and a dividend increase, while a working-capital build pushed net debt and gearing higher. Shares have outperformed several US peers over recent months, though analysts have flagged that technical readings at times suggest overbought conditions.
Trending AI Robots
For traders seeking a systematic, data-driven view of names like BP and SHEL, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated selection of automated trading systems. Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance record, and set of covered securities. Rather than listing every available bot, the Trending AI Robots section highlights only those judged best suited to current market conditions, helping traders cut through the noise and identify approaches aligned with the prevailing environment. Explore the Trending AI Robots page to review the featured strategies.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most clearly in strategic direction and balance-sheet posture. BP is executing a turnaround centered on debt reduction, asset sales, and a return to upstream growth, with an activist investor present and a new leadership team still defining long-term targets. Shell, by contrast, is pursuing disciplined growth through the ARC Resources acquisition while maintaining one of the sector's most resilient cash-return programs.
On momentum, Shell has generally posted more consistent, larger absolute profits and stronger share-price performance against US peers, supported by its LNG footprint and trading scale. BP offers a wider valuation discount and a more pronounced re-rating narrative, but its earnings mix leans more heavily on trading and refining conditions that can reverse quickly. Risk profiles also differ: BP's heavier debt-reduction agenda and impairment charges contrast with Shell's higher gearing driven by acquisition-related leverage and working-capital swings. Both remain highly sensitive to oil and gas prices and to the durability of geopolitical supply disruptions.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, earnings stability, and balance-sheet positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward SHEL as the more consistent near-term candidate, reflecting its diversified cash generation, trading scale, and steadier relative momentum. At the same time, BP presents a stronger valuation and turnaround-driven re-rating case that could appeal to systems weighting value and catalyst potential. As market conditions evolve, this relative ranking may shift, and automated signals across both tickers should be monitored alongside fundamental developments.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BP is a Hold and SHEL is a StrongBuy.
BP sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
BP saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on November 02, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 50 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 64%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for BP moved out of overbought territory on October 26, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 38 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 63%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BP as a result. In 48 of 101 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
BP moved below its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.21% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BP advanced for three days, in 213 of 355 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
BP may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 189 of 282 cases where BP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 67%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 31, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 54 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.963) is normal, around the industry mean (1.508). BP has a moderately high P/E Ratio (21.072) as compared to the industry average of (10.200). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.058) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.046) settles around the average of (0.053) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.548) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
SHEL's Stochastic Oscillator stays in oversold zone for 4 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +3.33% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SHEL advanced for three days, in 196 of 368 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
SHEL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 223 of 349 cases where SHEL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SHEL moved out of overbought territory on November 02, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 14 of the 32 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 44%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 03, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SHEL as a result. In 42 of 100 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 42%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SHEL turned negative on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 20 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 43%.
SHEL moved below its 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SHEL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 31, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SHEL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 63 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.563) is normal, around the industry mean (1.508). P/E Ratio (10.841) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.200). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.632) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.032) settles around the average of (0.053) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.929) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
BP | SHEL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 88 | 71 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 54 Fair valued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 18 | 5 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 74 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 94 | 80 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 30 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BP's Valuation (54) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as SHEL (63) in the null industry. This means that BP’s stock grew similarly to SHEL’s over the last 12 months.
SHEL's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the null industry is in the same range as BP (18) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that SHEL’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
SHEL's SMR Rating (58) in the null industry is in the same range as BP (74) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that SHEL’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
SHEL's Price Growth Rating (44) in the null industry is in the same range as BP (49) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that SHEL’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
SHEL's P/E Growth Rating (80) in the null industry is in the same range as BP (94) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that SHEL’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
| BP | SHEL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 44% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 42% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 43% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 40% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 40% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 60% | 13 days ago 53% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 44% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 64% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while SHEL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- BP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SHEL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SHEL’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- SHEL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BP (@Integrated Oil) experienced а -6.32% price change this week, while SHEL (@Integrated Oil) price change was -6.65% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was -4.64%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -11.24%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.33%.
Reported Earning Dates
BP is expected to report earnings on Feb 09, 2027.
SHEL is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (-4.64% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
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BP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BP has been closely correlated with SHEL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BP jumps, then SHEL could also see price increases.
SHEL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SHEL has been closely correlated with BP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SHEL jumps, then BP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SHEL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHEL | 100% | -1.63% | ||
| BP - SHEL | 82% Closely correlated | -0.02% | ||
| E - SHEL | 76% Closely correlated | -1.41% | ||
| TTE - SHEL | 74% Closely correlated | -0.14% | ||
| CRGY - SHEL | 71% Closely correlated | +1.46% | ||
| EQNR - SHEL | 71% Closely correlated | -1.07% | ||
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