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BTI vs PM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? British American Tobacco (BTI) vs. Philip Morris International (PM) Stock Comparison
1. Key Takeaways
- BTI offers a defensive, high-yield profile, with a dividend yield near 6% and a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio around 10-11x, reflecting its value orientation.
- PM commands a premium valuation near 28x earnings, supported by a faster and more advanced smoke-free transformation.
- Philip Morris International's smoke-free business now contributes roughly 42-43% of revenue, versus about 20% for British American Tobacco's "new categories."
- PM has delivered stronger recent momentum, while BTI has benefited from defensive rotation and its reliable capital-return program.
- Both companies face shared regulatory and combustible-volume headwinds, but their growth engines and market positioning differ materially.
2. Introduction
British American Tobacco (BTI) and Philip Morris International (PM) are two of the world's largest tobacco companies, yet they represent contrasting investment profiles. One is a deep-value, high-dividend play; the other is a premium-priced growth story built on smoke-free products such as IQOS and ZYN. This stock comparison is relevant for income-oriented investors weighing yield against valuation, as well as growth-focused traders evaluating relative performance and market positioning within the consumer staples sector. Understanding where these two industry leaders diverge can help clarify which aligns better with a given risk tolerance and time horizon.
3. BTI Overview and Recent Performance
British American Tobacco is a London-based manufacturer whose portfolio spans combustible brands such as Dunhill, Kent, Lucky Strike, and Pall Mall, alongside the Newport and Camel brands in the United States. Its "new categories" segment includes the Vuse vapor line, glo heated-tobacco devices, and Velo nicotine pouches. In recent weeks, BTI has traded near $60, with a market capitalization above $125 billion and a dividend yield of roughly 5-6%.
Recent market activity reflects a mix of defensive rotation and company-specific news. Half-year results showed constant-currency revenue growth of about 2.9%, with adjusted operating profit up 3.5% and adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) up 7.9%. New-category revenue rose approximately 18%, led by a 66% increase in modern oral products, while Velo Plus revenue more than doubled. Management has also trimmed its outlook for global cigarette industry volumes, a reminder of the structural decline in combustibles. Cost discipline remains central, including a restructuring that targets meaningful annualized savings by 2028.
4. PM Overview and Recent Performance
Philip Morris International, headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, operates internationally with a portfolio anchored by Marlboro, IQOS heated-tobacco, ZYN nicotine pouches, and VEEV e-vapor. In recent months, PM has traded near $205 and delivered a strong year-to-date advance, with a roughly 3.5% dividend yield.
The company's recent performance has been driven by its smoke-free business, which now represents around 42-43% of net revenue. Second-quarter results showed record revenue exceeding $11 billion, up about 10.4% year over year, with adjusted EPS rising roughly 15%. IQOS continues to lead the global heated-tobacco category, while ZYN gained regulatory momentum after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorized additional variants. The company has raised its full-year earnings growth outlook, reflecting confidence in the smoke-free transition, even as combustible volumes face industry-wide declines.
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6. Head-to-Head Comparison
The most striking contrast between BTI and PM is valuation versus momentum. British American Tobacco trades at a much lower earnings multiple and offers roughly twice the dividend yield of Philip Morris, making it attractive to income investors seeking margin of safety. Philip Morris, by contrast, carries a premium valuation justified by a larger and faster-growing smoke-free franchise.
Growth drivers also diverge. PM's IQOS and ZYN have achieved category leadership and expanding margins, with smoke-free gross margins approaching 70%. BTI's Velo and Vuse are growing quickly but remain a smaller share of the business. Both companies face shared risks: declining cigarette volumes, tightening regulation, and litigation exposure. BTI's higher yield and lower multiple may cushion downside, while PM's stronger growth trajectory and broader geographic diversification support its premium. Sentiment has favored PM's momentum, while BTI has attracted defensive and income-focused flows.
7. Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor PM in the current environment. Philip Morris International demonstrates more consistent trend strength, a more advanced smoke-free transformation, and clearer earnings catalysts, including regulatory progress on ZYN and raised guidance. British American Tobacco offers compelling valuation and income appeal, but its growth narrative depends more heavily on cost discipline and a smaller new-categories base. The relative positioning suggests PM holds the stronger momentum and stability profile, though this assessment reflects probabilistic signals rather than a definitive prediction.
8. Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BTI is a Hold and PM is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for BTI turns positive, indicating new upward trend
BTI saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 78 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 50 of the 78 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 64%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BTI just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where BTI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
BTI moved above its 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for BTI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 21 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Following a +5.90% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BTI advanced for three days, in 235 of 374 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for BTI moved below the 200-day moving average on September 14, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BTI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
BTI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for BTI entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BTI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 71 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.669) is normal, around the industry mean (-7.351). P/E Ratio (20.513) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.657). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.415) is also within normal values, averaging (3.595). Dividend Yield (0.055) settles around the average of (0.058) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.521) is also within normal values, averaging (2.780).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
PM's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PM turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where PM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PM as a result. In 47 of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
PM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for PM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 17, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 5 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 38%.
Following a +0.75% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PM advanced for three days, in 228 of 385 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 187 of 328 cases where PM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PM moved out of overbought territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 55%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
PM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. PM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 20 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: PM's P/B Ratio (-37.263) is slightly lower than the industry average of (-7.351). P/E Ratio (29.483) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.657). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.327) is also within normal values, averaging (3.595). Dividend Yield (0.031) settles around the average of (0.058) among similar stocks. PM's P/S Ratio (7.022) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.780).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
BTI | PM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 49 | 38 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 71 Overvalued | 20 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 6 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 99 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 17 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 73 | 17 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PM's Valuation (20) in the Tobacco industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BTI (71). This means that PM’s stock grew somewhat faster than BTI’s over the last 12 months.
PM's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as BTI (10). This means that PM’s stock grew similarly to BTI’s over the last 12 months.
PM's SMR Rating (3) in the Tobacco industry is significantly better than the same rating for BTI (99). This means that PM’s stock grew significantly faster than BTI’s over the last 12 months.
PM's Price Growth Rating (17) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as BTI (43). This means that PM’s stock grew similarly to BTI’s over the last 12 months.
PM's P/E Growth Rating (17) in the Tobacco industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BTI (73). This means that PM’s stock grew somewhat faster than BTI’s over the last 12 months.
| BTI | PM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 51% | 4 days ago 55% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 53% | 4 days ago 43% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 55% | 4 days ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 8 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 49% | 19 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 47% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 35% | 4 days ago 57% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BTI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while PM’s FA Score has 5 green FA rating(s).
- BTI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PM’s FA Score: 5 green, 0 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BTI’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PM’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BTI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
- PM’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BTI (@Tobacco) experienced а +8.11% price change this week, while PM (@Tobacco) price change was +1.99% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was -5.93%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.04%, and the average quarterly price growth was -19.35%.
Reported Earning Dates
BTI is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
PM is expected to report earnings on Oct 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Tobacco (-5.93% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
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BTI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BTI has been loosely correlated with PM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BTI jumps, then PM could also see price increases.
PM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PM has been loosely correlated with BTI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if PM jumps, then BTI could also see price increases.