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BX vs TPG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Blackstone Inc. (BX) vs. TPG Inc. (TPG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale vs. growth: BX is the world's largest alternative asset manager with about $1.3 trillion in assets under management (AUM), while TPG is a faster-growing, smaller platform at roughly $306 billion in AUM.
- Both stocks have corrected: Each has traded roughly 30% below its 52-week high in recent weeks, reflecting broad pressure on alternative asset manager valuations.
- Earnings momentum: Both firms beat first-quarter earnings expectations, with TPG posting a sharper 36% year-over-year rise in fee-related earnings (FRE).
- Dividend profile: TPG carries a higher trailing dividend yield (above 5%), while BX offers a larger absolute payout and significantly larger market capitalization.
- Contrasting risk profiles: BX faces scrutiny around private credit redemptions, while TPG carries higher beta and a GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) net loss tied to mark-to-market valuation adjustments.
Introduction
Alternative asset managers have become a focal point for investors seeking exposure to private equity, credit, real estate, and infrastructure without directly owning private funds. This stock comparison examines BX (Blackstone Inc.) and TPG (TPG Inc.), two publicly traded firms operating in the same industry but at very different scales. Growth-oriented investors may weigh TPG's faster expansion against Blackstone's scale and franchise depth, while income-focused readers may compare dividend yields and payout durability. Evaluating relative performance, market positioning, and recent catalysts helps clarify which of these names currently presents a more consistent risk-reward profile in a volatile market environment.
BX Overview and Recent Performance
Blackstone is the world's largest alternative asset manager, spanning private equity, real estate, credit and insurance, and hedge fund solutions. In recent weeks, the stock has traded near its lowest levels of the year after a significant pullback from earlier highs, with market capitalization hovering around $94–100 billion. First-quarter results showed resilience: total AUM rose 12% year over year to about $1.3 trillion, fee-earning AUM climbed 9% to roughly $937.6 billion, and the firm recorded nearly $70 billion of inflows. Distributable earnings of $1.36 per share and segment revenues of about $3.62 billion both exceeded consensus expectations.
Sentiment has been shaped by two competing forces. On one hand, Blackstone's credit and insurance platform attracted roughly $37 billion of inflows, and the firm has pursued high-profile AI-linked financing, including a reported $9 billion chip-financing arrangement tied to Anthropic. On the other hand, its flagship private credit fund, BCRED, logged notable redemption activity, and management has acknowledged external pressure on the private credit sector. These factors have kept the shares range-bound despite solid fundamental momentum.
TPG Overview and Recent Performance
TPG is a diversified alternative asset manager investing across private equity, credit, real estate, impact, and market solutions. It operates at a fraction of Blackstone's scale but has grown rapidly: AUM rose 22% year over year to $306 billion, and fee-earning AUM increased 23% to about $175 billion. In its latest quarter, TPG raised more than $10 billion of capital (up 75% year over year), deployed over $14 billion, and realized nearly $9 billion of investments — roughly double the prior-year pace. After-tax distributable earnings of $0.70 per share beat analyst estimates.
TPG's shares have also corrected sharply in recent months, trading near the lower end of a 52-week range of roughly $36.95 to $70.38, with a trailing dividend yield above 5%. Notably, fee-related earnings surpassed $1 billion on a trailing twelve-month basis for the first time, and the FRE margin expanded to about 44%. However, the firm reported a GAAP net loss attributable to common shareholders in the quarter, driven largely by non-cash valuation multiple compression across its private equity portfolio — a reminder that marked-to-market volatility can obscure otherwise healthy operating trends.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two companies is scale versus growth rate. BX derives strength from a roughly $1.3 trillion AUM base, diversified credit and insurance inflows, and an entrenched position in institutional fundraising. TPG, by comparison, is growing its AUM and fee-related earnings far more quickly from a smaller base, but its valuation reflects a higher earnings multiple and greater beta (a measure of sensitivity to broad market moves).
Risk factors also differ. Blackstone's exposure includes redemption pressure in its private wealth credit products, which investors monitor closely. TPG's risk profile is more concentrated in mark-to-market volatility and a smaller fee base, as evidenced by its recent GAAP net loss. Sector exposure tilts Blackstone toward large-scale real estate and AI infrastructure financing, while TPG emphasizes software, healthcare, and impact-oriented investing. In terms of income, TPG's higher yield may appeal to yield-seeking investors, whereas Blackstone offers greater absolute scale and lower relative earnings volatility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely view BX as the more stable and trend-consistent candidate, given its larger AUM base, diversified inflows across credit and insurance, and deeper institutional franchise. TPG demonstrates stronger relative growth momentum and a more attractive dividend yield, but its higher beta and recent mark-to-market losses introduce greater near-term variability. The verdict leans probabilistically toward Blackstone for stability-seeking positioning, while acknowledging that TPG's growth trajectory and yield could appeal to investors with higher risk tolerance and a longer time horizon.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BX is a StrongBuy and TPG is a Buy.
Momentum Indicator for BX turns positive, indicating new upward trend
BX saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 78 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 67 of the 78 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BX's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 24 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BX just turned positive on October 19, 2026. Looking at past instances where BX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 37 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Following a +3.34% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BX advanced for three days, in 199 of 293 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for BX moved below the 200-day moving average on October 30, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
BX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for BX entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: BX's P/B Ratio (9.868) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.410). P/E Ratio (26.512) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.016). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.048) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.044) settles around the average of (0.272) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (7.148) is also within normal values, averaging (15.694).
TPG's RSI Indicator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for TPG moved out of oversold territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 24 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 23 of the 24 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TPG as a result. In 60 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TPG just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where TPG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Following a +7.54% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TPG advanced for three days, in 232 of 320 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
TPG moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TPG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
TPG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for TPG entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TPG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.296) is normal, around the industry mean (2.410). P/E Ratio (39.897) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.016). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.051) settles around the average of (0.272) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.203) is also within normal values, averaging (15.694).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TPG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock worse than average.
BX | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 91 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 79 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 32 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 83 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| BX | TPG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 80% | 4 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 86% | 4 days ago 75% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 81% | 4 days ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 77% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 71% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 68% | 5 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 69% | 20 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 75% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 67% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BX’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TPG’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- BX’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TPG’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BX’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TPG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TPG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BX (@Investment Managers) experienced а +0.46% price change this week, while TPG (@Investment Managers) price change was +4.57% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was +0.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.05%, and the average quarterly price growth was -3.42%.
Reported Earning Dates
BX is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
TPG is expected to report earnings on Feb 16, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (+0.34% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
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BX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BX has been closely correlated with KKR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BX jumps, then KKR could also see price increases.
TPG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TPG has been closely correlated with CG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TPG jumps, then CG could also see price increases.