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CCL vs RCL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Carnival Corporation (CCL) vs. Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CCL is the world's largest cruise operator by fleet and revenue, while RCL commands a premium, brand-driven position in the same sector.
- RCL is the more profitable operator, with a net margin near 24% versus roughly 11% for CCL.
- CCL trades at a discount valuation and has been aggressively deleveraging, recently earning an investment-grade credit upgrade from S&P.
- Both stocks have faced 2026 pressure from higher fuel costs and geopolitical disruptions, but RCL hedges fuel while CCL is largely unhedged.
- The comparison is ultimately a trade-off between a value and balance-sheet-repair story (CCL) and a premium-quality, higher-margin growth story (RCL).
Introduction
Carnival Corporation and Royal Caribbean Group are the two largest publicly traded cruise companies in the world, yet they compete from very different strategic positions. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing a value-oriented turnaround against a premium-quality operator, as well as for traders tracking shifting sentiment across the travel and leisure sector. With both names experiencing notable pullbacks in 2026, understanding their relative performance and market positioning can help clarify where each stock stands on metrics ranging from profitability and valuation to fuel exposure and balance-sheet strength.
CCL Overview and Recent Performance
CCL, or Carnival Corporation, operates a fleet of more than 90 ships across nine brands, including Princess, Holland America, and Cunard. In recent weeks, the company delivered a record fiscal third quarter, with revenue of roughly $8.44 billion and adjusted earnings per share (EPS, or profit allocated to each outstanding share) of $1.43 that topped analyst estimates. Management raised its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to about $2.24 while absorbing a substantial fuel-cost headwind, reflecting resilient pricing and disciplined cost control.
Sentiment has been shaped by both progress and risk. Carnival reduced total debt below $24 billion from a roughly $36 billion peak in 2023 and secured an investment-grade credit upgrade from S&P, reinforcing its deleveraging narrative. However, because the company does not hedge fuel, its earnings remain sensitive to oil prices, and the stock has traded lower on a year-to-date basis despite the recent earnings-driven rebound.
RCL Overview and Recent Performance
RCL, or Royal Caribbean Group, operates a smaller but premium-leaning portfolio spanning Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea. The company has consistently generated the industry's strongest margins, with a net margin near 24% in its most recent fiscal year. In recent weeks, Royal Caribbean raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $17.73 to $17.87, implying roughly 14% growth, supported by solid Caribbean demand and a better-than-expected second quarter.
Market sentiment has nonetheless cooled, with the stock pulling back toward a 52-week low after an early-summer peak, pressured by rising fuel costs and softer pricing in Mediterranean itineraries. Royal Caribbean hedges a meaningful share of its fuel consumption, which limits downside exposure but also mutes the benefit when oil prices fall. Recent strategic moves, including new ship orders and a joint venture stake in Sandals Resorts, have drawn mixed reactions from investors.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The sharpest contrast between the two companies lies in profitability and valuation. Royal Caribbean converts revenue into profit far more efficiently, supported by premium pricing and higher onboard spending, and it carries a correspondingly richer valuation. Carnival generates higher absolute revenue and free cash flow but operates with a lower margin profile and trades at a meaningful discount on forward earnings.
Risk exposure also differs. Carnival's unhedged fuel position makes its earnings more volatile relative to oil prices, while Royal Caribbean's hedges provide more stability. On growth drivers, Royal Caribbean is expanding capacity through new ship classes and entering river cruising, whereas Carnival is prioritizing yield improvement, cost discipline, and debt reduction. Balance-sheet leverage is elevated at both firms, though Carnival has made more visible recent progress, and both depend on continued strength in consumer travel spending.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, margin stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward RCL as the more stable, higher-quality operator, given its superior profitability and steadier earnings trajectory. That said, CCL may present a more favorable risk-reward profile from a valuation and deleveraging standpoint, particularly if fuel prices remain subdued. The final signal would depend on real-time momentum, volatility, and catalyst data, so the probabilistic view is nuanced rather than definitive.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CCL is a StrongBuy and RCL is a Buy.
Momentum Indicator for CCL turns positive, indicating new upward trend
CCL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on September 29, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 68 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 55 of the 68 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CCL just turned positive on September 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where CCL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 37 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
CCL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CCL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Following a +3.21% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CCL advanced for three days, in 220 of 288 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 222 of 276 cases where CCL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 80%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CCL moved out of overbought territory on October 14, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 28 of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 78%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CCL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
CCL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CCL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 59 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.635) is normal, around the industry mean (0.391). P/E Ratio (11.921) is within average values for comparable stocks, (25.274). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.769) is also within normal values, averaging (1.617). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.185) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.178) is also within normal values, averaging (2.686).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CCL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock worse than average.
RCL in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026
RCL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 33 of 37 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RCL as a result. In 56 of 69 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RCL just turned positive on September 28, 2026. Looking at past instances where RCL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
The 10-day moving average for RCL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Following a +2.30% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RCL advanced for three days, in 269 of 330 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 295 of 368 cases where RCL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 80%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for RCL moved out of overbought territory on October 07, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 29 of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 67%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 45 of 62 cases where RCL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The 50-day moving average for RCL moved below the 200-day moving average on September 24, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RCL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
RCL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RCL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.537) is normal, around the industry mean (0.391). P/E Ratio (17.718) is within average values for comparable stocks, (25.274). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.980) is also within normal values, averaging (1.617). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.185) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.690) is also within normal values, averaging (2.686).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
CCL | RCL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 34 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 59 Fair valued | 75 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 91 | 29 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 40 | 23 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 68 | 71 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CCL's Valuation (59) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is in the same range as RCL (75). This means that CCL’s stock grew similarly to RCL’s over the last 12 months.
RCL's Profit vs Risk Rating (29) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CCL (91). This means that RCL’s stock grew somewhat faster than CCL’s over the last 12 months.
RCL's SMR Rating (23) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is in the same range as CCL (40). This means that RCL’s stock grew similarly to CCL’s over the last 12 months.
CCL's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is in the same range as RCL (43). This means that CCL’s stock grew similarly to RCL’s over the last 12 months.
CCL's P/E Growth Rating (68) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is in the same range as RCL (71). This means that CCL’s stock grew similarly to RCL’s over the last 12 months.
| CCL | RCL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 81% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 84% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 78% | 15 days ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 80% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CCL’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while RCL’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CCL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- RCL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CCL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RCL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CCL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- RCL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
CCL (@Consumer Sundries) experienced а +5.12% price change this week, while RCL (@Consumer Sundries) price change was +5.15% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Consumer Sundries industry was -1.05%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.73%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.26%.
Reported Earning Dates
CCL is expected to report earnings on Dec 18, 2026.
RCL is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Consumer Sundries (-1.05% weekly)Consumer sundries companies make products that usually do not have another classification, such as lawn and garden products, pest-control products, pet food and pet products like leashes, collars, and harnesses. Central Garden & Pet Company and Dogness (International) Corporation are examples of companies operating in this industry.
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CCL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CCL has been closely correlated with NCLH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CCL jumps, then NCLH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CCL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCL | 100% | -0.81% | ||
| NCLH - CCL | 82% Closely correlated | -0.32% | ||
| RCL - CCL | 80% Closely correlated | -0.80% | ||
| VIK - CCL | 71% Closely correlated | -1.96% | ||
| TNL - CCL | 51% Loosely correlated | +0.21% | ||
| ABNB - CCL | 42% Loosely correlated | +1.19% | ||
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RCL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RCL has been closely correlated with CCL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RCL jumps, then CCL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To RCL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCL | 100% | -0.80% | ||
| CCL - RCL | 79% Closely correlated | -0.81% | ||
| NCLH - RCL | 75% Closely correlated | -0.32% | ||
| VIK - RCL | 66% Closely correlated | -1.96% | ||
| TNL - RCL | 46% Loosely correlated | +0.21% | ||
| PRSU - RCL | 41% Loosely correlated | +0.48% | ||
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