CF vs MOS

Key Takeaways

• CF has significantly outperformed MOS year-to-date, with gains of approximately 49.5% compared to MOS's decline of about 7.1%.
• CF reported strong Q1 2026 results, including net earnings of $615 million and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $983 million, driven by tight global nitrogen markets.
• MOS faces softer demand in phosphates and potash, with Q4 2025 results missing estimates due to weak volumes and higher costs; Q1 earnings are anticipated lower.
• Both stocks benefit from fertilizer sector tailwinds like supply disruptions, but CF's nitrogen focus provides stronger recent momentum.
• CF trades at a lower trailing P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio of 10.36 versus MOS's 13.05, with a larger market cap of $17.7 billion compared to $7.1 billion.
• Market sentiment favors CF amid recent nitrogen price strength from Middle East supply issues.

Introduction

CF Industries Holdings (CF) and The Mosaic Company (MOS) are leading players in the fertilizer sector, producing essential nitrogen and phosphate/potash products, respectively, that support global agriculture. This stock comparison analyzes their recent performance, business models, and market positioning in the context of tightening supply chains and volatile commodity prices. Traders seeking short-term momentum and investors eyeing sector exposure amid geopolitical disruptions in fertilizer shipments will find these insights valuable for evaluating relative performance and potential trade-offs in the current market environment.

CF Overview and Recent Performance

CF Industries Holdings (CF), the world's largest producer of ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers, benefits from low-cost U.S. natural gas as a key input. In recent market activity, shares have traded around $115, reflecting a year-to-date gain of about 49.5% despite short-term pullbacks amid broader sector softness. Strong Q1 2026 results, with net earnings of $615 million and adjusted EBITDA of $983 million, exceeded expectations, fueled by high ammonia production rates exceeding 99% of capacity and a tight global nitrogen supply-demand balance tightened further by Middle East disruptions. Sentiment remains positive due to robust cash flows, share repurchases, and nitrogen price support from supply shocks, positioning CF favorably for spring planting demand.

MOS Overview and Recent Performance

The Mosaic Company (MOS) is a major producer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, operating mines and facilities globally across Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes segments. Shares have traded near $22, down about 7.1% year-to-date and 29% over the past year, pressured by weak North American phosphate demand and elevated input costs like sulfur. Q4 2025 results showed revenues of $2.97 billion missing estimates, with adjusted EPS of $0.22 amid lower volumes; Q1 2026 EPS is forecasted at $0.20, a 59% year-over-year drop. Recent actions include idling Brazilian facilities to cut output and costs, supporting long-term efficiency but highlighting near-term challenges in softer potash and phosphate markets despite international demand.

Trending AI Robots

Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots page curates the top-performing AI trading bots from its library of over 350 bots that generate real-time signals across thousands of tickers in stocks, ETFs, and crypto. AI analyzes all bots to spotlight the 25 most promising ones suited to current volatility and market conditions, featuring diverse strategies like momentum, sector rotation, and swing trading on timeframes from 15 minutes to daily. Standout performers include bots with annualized returns up to +285%, win rates of 50-88%, and profit factors from 1.5 to 11.7, covering sectors such as semiconductors (e.g., +95% return on LRCX/TER), industrials (+88%), and space infrastructure (+285%). These bots trade sets of 3-18 tickers with risk management, offering copy trading without balance minimums for some. Explore Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots to identify strategies aligning with today’s opportunities.

Head-to-Head Comparison

While both CF and MOS operate in fertilizers, CF’s pure nitrogen focus contrasts with MOS’s diversified phosphate (60% of sales) and potash exposure, making CF more sensitive to ammonia prices and MOS to crop nutrient blends. Growth drivers differ: CF leverages U.S. gas advantages and clean ammonia initiatives, while MOS pursues cost cuts via facility idling and international sales. Recent momentum strongly favors CF with 49.5% YTD gains versus MOS’s -7.1%, reflecting nitrogen strength over phosphate weakness. Risk factors include commodity volatility and geopolitics for both, but MOS carries higher debt ($4.8B vs. CF’s $3.6B) and faces U.S. demand softness. Sector exposure ties them to agriculture, yet CF’s lower P/E (10.4 vs. 13.1) and superior EBITDA ($3.7B vs. $2.5B) signal better relative value and sentiment in tight nitrogen markets.

Tickeron AI Verdict

Tickeron’s AI currently favors CF over MOS, based on superior trend consistency from robust Q1 earnings, higher YTD returns, and stronger positioning in nitrogen amid supply catalysts like Middle East disruptions. CF’s lower valuation multiples and operational stability enhance its probabilistic edge in the near term, though MOS could rebound with phosphate recovery.

Disclaimer

The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.