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CF vs NTR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CF Industries Holdings (CF) vs. Nutrien (NTR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CF has significantly outperformed NTR year-to-date (YTD, meaning from the start of the current year), gaining approximately 59% compared to NTR's 21%.
- CF trades at a lower price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 13.7 versus NTR's 16.1, suggesting relatively better valuation on earnings.
- NTR offers a higher dividend yield around 2.9%, appealing to income-focused investors, while both maintain strong balance sheets.
- Recent market activity shows CF experiencing short-term pressure with a modest monthly decline, while NTR holds steadier.
- Analyst consensus leans toward "Hold" for CF and "Buy" for NTR, with average price targets implying modest upside for both.
- Both stocks benefit from elevated fertilizer prices but face volatility ahead of upcoming quarterly earnings.
Introduction
CF Industries Holdings (CF) and Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) are leading players in the fertilizer sector, a critical area amid global agricultural demands and fluctuating commodity prices. This comparison analyzes their recent stock performance, business models, and market positioning to help traders and investors gauge relative strengths. Short-term traders may focus on momentum and technical trends, while long-term investors could weigh valuation, dividends, and growth drivers. With fertilizer prices remaining elevated due to supply dynamics and demand from major crop regions, understanding these stocks' trajectories aids informed decision-making in the current market environment.
CF Overview and Recent Performance
CF Industries Holdings (CF) is a major producer of nitrogen fertilizers, including ammonia and urea, primarily serving North American and global markets. The company benefits from low-cost production and strategic export capabilities. In recent market activity, CF shares have traded around $123, reflecting robust YTD gains of nearly 60%, driven by strong nitrogen demand and favorable pricing. However, recent weeks saw a pullback of about 4% monthly, amid broader sector caution ahead of earnings. Sentiment has been supported by solid Q4 results with earnings per share (EPS) beating estimates and healthy cash flows exceeding $1.3 billion trailing twelve months (TTM). Analyst targets average near $121-$133, with a "Hold" consensus, as investors monitor fertilizer price sustainability.
NTR Overview and Recent Performance
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) operates as one of the world's largest providers of potash, nitrogen, and phosphate fertilizers, alongside retail agronomy services, offering broader diversification. Shares hover near $75, with YTD performance at about 21%, lagging pure nitrogen peers but showing stability with a slight monthly uptick of 0.6%. Recent sentiment reflects resilient agricultural demand, bolstered by Q4 revenue of $5.1 billion and TTM net income over $2.2 billion. Dividend yield stands at approximately 2.9%, attracting yield seekers. Analysts maintain a "Buy" leaning with targets around $80, though volume pressures and geopolitical factors in supply chains have tempered gains. Upcoming earnings will clarify phosphate and potash trends.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both CF and NTR thrive in fertilizers but differ in focus: CF's pure nitrogen exposure amplifies upside from price spikes, yielding higher recent revenue growth (19% LTM versus NTR's 4%), while NTR's potash and retail segments provide stability and scale with a $36 billion market cap double CF's $19 billion. Momentum favors CF with superior YTD returns, but NTR edges in recent stability and dividend appeal. Risk profiles show CF more volatile (beta implied higher), sensitive to nitrogen cycles, versus NTR's diversified buffers. Market sentiment tilts toward CF for growth trades, NTR for balanced exposure.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently favors CF over NTR, based on stronger trend consistency, superior YTD momentum, and attractive valuation metrics like lower P/E amid sustained nitrogen demand. While NTR offers stability and yield, CF's relative positioning suggests higher probability of near-term outperformance, pending earnings catalysts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CF is a Hold and NTR is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CF’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileNTR’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- CF’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- NTR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CF’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NTR’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CF’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
- NTR’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
CF (@Chemicals: Agricultural) experienced а +1.84% price change this week, while NTR (@Chemicals: Agricultural) price change was -6.81% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Agricultural industry was +1.06%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.11%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.15%.
Reported Earning Dates
CF is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
NTR is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Chemicals: Agricultural (+1.06% weekly)The agricultural chemicals sector includes companies that produce chemical products for the agricultural industry applications like crop protection, animal health, biotechnology and pharmaceutical-related products. Some of the largest agricultural chemicals producers include Nutrien Ltd., Corteva Inc., and FMC Corporation.
| CF | NTR | CF / NTR | |
| Capitalization | 20B | 34.6B | 58% |
| EBITDA | 3.7B | 6.32B | 59% |
| Gain YTD | 69.493 | 17.467 | 398% |
| P/E Ratio | 11.75 | 14.66 | 80% |
| Revenue | 7.41B | 27.8B | 27% |
| Total Cash | 2.04B | 777M | 263% |
| Total Debt | 3.62B | 13.9B | 26% |
CF | NTR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 68 | 13 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 89 Overvalued | 34 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 73 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 27 | 71 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 19 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 99 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NTR's Valuation (34) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CF (89). This means that NTR’s stock grew somewhat faster than CF’s over the last 12 months.
CF's Profit vs Risk Rating (31) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NTR (73). This means that CF’s stock grew somewhat faster than NTR’s over the last 12 months.
CF's SMR Rating (27) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NTR (71). This means that CF’s stock grew somewhat faster than NTR’s over the last 12 months.
CF's Price Growth Rating (19) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as NTR (49). This means that CF’s stock grew similarly to NTR’s over the last 12 months.
CF's P/E Growth Rating (43) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NTR (99). This means that CF’s stock grew somewhat faster than NTR’s over the last 12 months.
| CF | NTR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 83% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 56% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 68% | 6 days ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 71% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| AWP | 11.89 | 0.01 | +0.08% |
| abrdn Global Premier Properties Fund | |||
| IBDW | 20.83 | -0.05 | -0.24% |
| iShares iBonds Dec 2031 Term Corp ETF | |||
| JPMB | 39.92 | -0.13 | -0.32% |
| JPMorgan USD Emerging Mkts Svr Bd ETF | |||
| KNO | 59.80 | -0.39 | -0.65% |
| AXS Knowledge Leaders ETF | |||
| FFGX | 33.74 | -0.62 | -1.79% |
| Fidelity Fundamental Global ex-U.S. ETF | |||
CF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CF has been closely correlated with NTR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CF jumps, then NTR could also see price increases.
NTR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NTR has been closely correlated with CF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NTR jumps, then CF could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NTR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTR | 100% | +0.97% | ||
| CF - NTR | 66% Closely correlated | +4.75% | ||
| IPI - NTR | 54% Loosely correlated | +6.70% | ||
| MOS - NTR | 54% Loosely correlated | +2.75% | ||
| CTVA - NTR | 42% Loosely correlated | -0.29% | ||
| KPLUY - NTR | 42% Loosely correlated | +3.01% | ||
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