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MOS vs NTR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Mosaic Company (MOS) vs. Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MOS shares have declined around 8% year-to-date, underperforming amid pressures in phosphate margins and soft U.S. demand.
- NTR has gained approximately 10% year-to-date, bolstered by record potash sales volumes in Q1 2026.
- Nutrien reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.51, beating estimates, with sales up 18.5% year-over-year; Mosaic faces Q1 EPS expectations down 59% YoY.
- NTR's diversified portfolio across potash, nitrogen, and retail provides broader exposure compared to MOS's focus on phosphate and potash.
- Both offer yields above 3%, but NTR shows stronger recent momentum and analyst price targets implying upside.
- Tickeron's AI tools highlight superior relative performance for NTR in the current fertilizer market environment.
Introduction
The Mosaic Company (MOS) and Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) are leading producers of essential crop nutrients like potash and phosphate, critical for global agriculture amid rising food demand and volatile commodity prices. This stock comparison analyzes their business models, recent performance, and market positioning in the fertilizers sector, where supply chain dynamics and input costs influence outcomes. Traders seeking momentum plays and long-term investors focused on dividend stability or growth potential in basic materials will find value in evaluating their relative strengths, especially during periods of shifting fertilizer pricing and geopolitical influences on agriculture.
MOS Overview and Recent Performance
The Mosaic Company (MOS) produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients through its Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes segments. Operating mines and facilities primarily in North America and Brazil, it supports global farming with products like diammonium phosphate and MicroEssentials. In recent market activity, MOS shares have faced downward pressure, trading around $22 with a year-to-date decline of about 8% and a 52-week range of $22-38. Recent weeks reflect caution ahead of Q1 2026 earnings, with analysts forecasting EPS of $0.20 (down 59% YoY) due to elevated input costs like sulfur and ammonia, alongside softer U.S. phosphate demand. Sentiment has been tempered by prior Q4 2025 results showing production adjustments and higher costs offsetting price gains, contributing to a P/E ratio of 13 and a 4% dividend yield. Broader sector headwinds, including farmer application rate adjustments, have influenced performance.
NTR Overview and Recent Performance
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) is a diversified provider of crop inputs, operating Retail, Potash, Nitrogen, and Phosphate segments. It distributes nutrients, protection products, and seeds while producing potash as the world's largest producer. Recent stock behavior shows resilience, with shares around $68 and year-to-date gains near 10%, within a 52-week range of $53-85. Q1 2026 results drove positive momentum, reporting adjusted EPS of $0.51 (beating estimates by 6.3%, up 364% YoY) and sales of $6.05 billion (up 18.5%, topping forecasts). Record potash volumes of 3.51 million tons, higher nitrogen prices, and robust retail demand offset phosphate pressures, lifting adjusted EBITDA to $1.11 billion. Shares dipped post-earnings on profit-taking despite beats, but a P/E of 14 and 3.2% yield reflect stability. Strong international demand and cost discipline have shaped favorable sentiment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
MOS and NTR both thrive on potash demand but differ in diversification: NTR's nitrogen and expansive retail arm buffer volatility, while MOS emphasizes phosphate efficiency. Growth drivers favor NTR with record potash volumes and retail expansion versus MOS's cost inflation challenges. Recent momentum tilts to NTR (10% YTD gain vs. -8%), though both lag broader markets amid fertilizer price fluctuations. Risk factors include commodity exposure for both, but NTR's larger scale ($33B market cap vs. $7B) and lower beta (0.63 vs. 0.89) suggest relative stability. Sector ties to agriculture amplify trade-offs: NTR benefits from nitrogen surges, while MOS eyes phosphate recovery. Market sentiment leans toward NTR post-earnings beats.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors NTR over MOS, driven by consistent earnings beats, superior potash momentum, diversified revenue streams, and stronger year-to-date positioning amid fertilizer market upswings. While MOS offers value at lower valuations, NTR's trend stability and catalysts like retail growth indicate higher probability of near-term outperformance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MOS is a StrongBuy and NTR is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MOS’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileNTR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MOS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NTR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MOS’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NTR’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MOS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NTR’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
MOS (@Chemicals: Agricultural) experienced а -5.14% price change this week, while NTR (@Chemicals: Agricultural) price change was -5.97% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Agricultural industry was +1.12%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.66%, and the average quarterly price growth was +12.87%.
Reported Earning Dates
MOS is expected to report earnings on Aug 03, 2026.
NTR is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Chemicals: Agricultural (+1.12% weekly)The agricultural chemicals sector includes companies that produce chemical products for the agricultural industry applications like crop protection, animal health, biotechnology and pharmaceutical-related products. Some of the largest agricultural chemicals producers include Nutrien Ltd., Corteva Inc., and FMC Corporation.
| MOS | NTR | MOS / NTR | |
| Capitalization | 6.93B | 34.2B | 20% |
| EBITDA | 2.5B | 6.32B | 40% |
| Gain YTD | -8.785 | 16.341 | -54% |
| P/E Ratio | 12.82 | 14.52 | 88% |
| Revenue | 12.1B | 27.8B | 44% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 777M | - |
| Total Debt | 4.8B | 13.9B | 35% |
MOS | NTR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 13 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 31 Undervalued | 33 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 74 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 94 | 71 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 95 | 99 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MOS's Valuation (31) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as NTR (33). This means that MOS’s stock grew similarly to NTR’s over the last 12 months.
NTR's Profit vs Risk Rating (74) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as MOS (100). This means that NTR’s stock grew similarly to MOS’s over the last 12 months.
NTR's SMR Rating (71) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as MOS (94). This means that NTR’s stock grew similarly to MOS’s over the last 12 months.
NTR's Price Growth Rating (52) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as MOS (65). This means that NTR’s stock grew similarly to MOS’s over the last 12 months.
MOS's P/E Growth Rating (95) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as NTR (99). This means that MOS’s stock grew similarly to NTR’s over the last 12 months.
| MOS | NTR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 74% | 8 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 5 days ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 71% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| MFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| EMGEX | 10.09 | 0.05 | +0.50% |
| Emerging Markets Equities F-3 | |||
| FEDIX | 23.24 | N/A | N/A |
| Fidelity Advisor Emerg Mkts Discv I | |||
| PWJQX | 37.25 | N/A | N/A |
| PGIM Jennison International Opps R6 | |||
| KCRIX | 8.82 | N/A | N/A |
| Knights of Columbus Real Estt I | |||
| RGAAX | 73.13 | -0.01 | -0.01% |
| American Funds Growth Fund of Amer R1 | |||
MOS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MOS has been closely correlated with CF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MOS jumps, then CF could also see price increases.
NTR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NTR has been closely correlated with CF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NTR jumps, then CF could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NTR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTR | 100% | +4.33% | ||
| CF - NTR | 66% Closely correlated | +8.22% | ||
| IPI - NTR | 54% Loosely correlated | +15.71% | ||
| MOS - NTR | 54% Loosely correlated | -1.80% | ||
| KPLUY - NTR | 42% Loosely correlated | +0.11% | ||
| CTVA - NTR | 42% Loosely correlated | +2.10% | ||
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