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MOS vs NTR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? The Mosaic Company (MOS) vs. Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Nutrien (NTR) has shown notably stronger relative performance, trading higher over the past year while Mosaic (MOS) has declined substantially over the same window.
- Both companies face the same broad industry backdrop, including a potential return of Belarusian potash supply, but their financial profiles and exposure to that risk differ meaningfully.
- Mosaic's phosphate segment has been pressured by a sulfur supply shock tied to Strait of Hormuz disruptions, prompting production curtailments and a quarterly net loss.
- Nutrien's diversification across potash, nitrogen, and a large retail distribution network has provided comparatively steadier cash flow and dividend coverage.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on trend consistency, cash-flow stability, and relative market positioning, Tickeron's AI would currently favor NTR over MOS.
- For additional context, explore MOS Major News and MOS Today's Price Move, as well as NTR Major News and NTR Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI-powered strategies are navigating the current market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Fertilizer producers occupy a distinctive corner of the materials sector, where earnings depend on global crop-nutrient prices, input costs, and geopolitics rather than a single consumer cycle. This stock comparison examines two of the sector's largest North American names: MOS, The Mosaic Company, and NTR, Nutrien Ltd. Traders and investors tracking agricultural commodities, dividend sustainability, or cyclical recovery narratives may find this comparison relevant, because the two companies share the same demand drivers yet diverge sharply in recent momentum, financial flexibility, and market positioning. Understanding those contrasts helps clarify why one name has held up better than the other during a challenging stretch for the industry.
MOS Overview and Recent Performance
The Mosaic Company (MOS) is a Tampa-based producer of potash and phosphate fertilizers, alongside a Brazilian distribution business and an emerging biosciences unit. In recent weeks, the stock has remained under pressure, trading well below its 52-week high and down sharply on a year-over-year basis. The central headwind has been the phosphate segment, where a sulfur supply shock tied to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz drove input costs sharply higher and forced production curtailments at several U.S. and Brazilian facilities.
That squeeze translated into a quarterly net loss for the most recent reporting period, a sharp reversal from a profit a year earlier, even as revenue held up better than expected. Management has responded with aggressive cost measures, including capital-expenditure reductions, asset sales, and a debt refinancing that pushed maturities further out. While potash performance has remained comparatively stable, the phosphate margin compression and a dividend that currently exceeds earnings have weighed on sentiment, leaving the stock's relative performance well behind the broader market.
NTR Overview and Recent Performance
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) is the world's largest fertilizer producer by capacity, headquartered in Saskatchewan and diversified across potash, nitrogen, and a large global retail network. Unlike a single-commodity producer, its earnings are spread across three roughly balanced businesses, which has helped insulate results from swings in any one nutrient price or input cost. In recent weeks, the shares have traded notably higher year to date, outperforming both the fertilizer industry and the broader market.
The company has emphasized cost-reduction initiatives and steady execution, reporting record potash sales volumes in recent quarters and maintaining positive free cash flow. Its dividend carries a more conservative payout ratio than peers, backed by stronger cash generation. Like its competitor, Nutrien faces the overhang of a potential return of Belarusian potash to Western markets, which could pressure global prices, but its diversified model and balance-sheet strength have made that risk more manageable for investors to date.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most sharply in structure. MOS is more concentrated in phosphate and potash, making it more sensitive to phosphate-specific input shocks and to any single nutrient cycle. NTR spreads exposure across three nutrients plus a downstream retail business, which smooths earnings but also limits the upside torque available to a pure-play producer when a single commodity rallies.
On recent momentum, the contrast is clear: Nutrien's shares have appreciated over the past year, while Mosaic's have declined, reflecting the uneven hit from the sulfur shock. Risk profiles also diverge. Mosaic carries a heavier debt load relative to its size, negative or near-breakeven free cash flow in recent quarters, and a dividend that exceeds projected earnings — factors that have raised questions about payout sustainability. Nutrien, by comparison, has maintained positive free cash flow and a payout ratio nearer to 55%, giving it greater financial buffer. Both names share sector-level risks, including the Belarusian potash overhang, energy-price volatility, and weather-driven demand swings, but their capacity to absorb those risks differs considerably.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, cash-flow stability, dividend coverage, and relative market positioning, Tickeron's AI would currently favor NTR over MOS. Nutrien's steadier upward trend, diversified earnings base, and stronger balance sheet place it in a more favorable relative position, whereas Mosaic's earnings remain weighed down by phosphate margin compression and its recent quarterly loss. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: a sustained recovery in phosphate margins or further strength in potash could narrow the gap. Still, on current evidence, the AI's relative preference leans toward the more diversified and financially resilient name.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MOS is a Buy and NTR is a StrongBuy.
MOS's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MOS turned positive on October 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where MOS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 40 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MOS as a result. In 57 of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
MOS moved above its 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.82% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MOS advanced for three days, in 218 of 298 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MOS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
MOS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MOS entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MOS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 58 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.620) is normal, around the industry mean (-0.492). MOS has a moderately low P/E Ratio (-11.069) as compared to the industry average of (8.794). MOS's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.020) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.867). Dividend Yield (0.039) settles around the average of (0.126) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.645) is also within normal values, averaging (1.476).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MOS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock worse than average.
NTR's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for NTR moved out of oversold territory on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 24 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 22 of the 24 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NTR as a result. In 59 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NTR just turned positive on October 23, 2026. Looking at past instances where NTR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +4.17% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NTR advanced for three days, in 229 of 323 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 159 of 223 cases where NTR Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NTR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
NTR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NTR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 71 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.317) is normal, around the industry mean (-0.492). P/E Ratio (14.470) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.794). NTR's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.982) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.867). Dividend Yield (0.031) settles around the average of (0.126) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.329) is also within normal values, averaging (1.476).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NTR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock worse than average.
MOS | NTR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 29 | 21 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 58 Fair valued | 71 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 86 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 92 | 73 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 99 | 57 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MOS's Valuation (58) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as NTR (71). This means that MOS’s stock grew similarly to NTR’s over the last 12 months.
NTR's Profit vs Risk Rating (86) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as MOS (100). This means that NTR’s stock grew similarly to MOS’s over the last 12 months.
NTR's SMR Rating (73) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as MOS (92). This means that NTR’s stock grew similarly to MOS’s over the last 12 months.
MOS's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as NTR (44). This means that MOS’s stock grew similarly to NTR’s over the last 12 months.
NTR's P/E Growth Rating (57) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MOS (99). This means that NTR’s stock grew somewhat faster than MOS’s over the last 12 months.
| MOS | NTR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 58% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 67% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 7 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 75% | 1 day ago 69% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 82% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 71% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MOS’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while NTR’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- MOS’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- NTR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MOS’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NTR’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MOS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- NTR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
MOS (@Chemicals: Agricultural) experienced а +5.46% price change this week, while NTR (@Chemicals: Agricultural) price change was -0.58% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Agricultural industry was -3.03%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.96%, and the average quarterly price growth was -18.32%.
Reported Earning Dates
MOS is expected to report earnings on Feb 24, 2027.
NTR is expected to report earnings on Feb 17, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Chemicals: Agricultural (-3.03% weekly)The agricultural chemicals sector includes companies that produce chemical products for the agricultural industry applications like crop protection, animal health, biotechnology and pharmaceutical-related products. Some of the largest agricultural chemicals producers include Nutrien Ltd., Corteva Inc., and FMC Corporation.
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MOS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MOS has been loosely correlated with NTR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 53% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MOS jumps, then NTR could also see price increases.
NTR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NTR has been loosely correlated with CF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if NTR jumps, then CF could also see price increases.