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CM vs TD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) vs. Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both CM and TD are major Canadian banks with diversified operations in retail, commercial, and capital markets banking.
- In recent market activity, CM has delivered stronger year-to-date total returns compared to TD, outpacing broader Canadian and U.S. benchmarks.
- TD maintains a larger U.S. presence, providing geographic diversification that can moderate domestic economic sensitivity relative to CM.
- Both stocks have exhibited positive momentum in recent weeks amid favorable interest rate environments and capital markets activity, though valuations reflect differing growth profiles.
- Risk factors include regulatory changes, credit quality in commercial real estate, and net interest margin compression for the sector overall.
- Market sentiment remains constructive for both, supported by solid earnings trends and share repurchase programs in recent periods.
Introduction
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) and Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) represent two prominent constituents of Canada’s banking sector. This comparison examines their relative performance, business exposures, and positioning in the current market environment. Institutional investors, sector-focused portfolio managers, and traders monitoring large-cap financials may find the analysis relevant for assessing diversification within Canadian and North American banking equities.
CM Overview and Recent Performance
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) operates as a diversified financial services provider with core activities in personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and capital markets. In recent market activity, CM shares have shown robust gains, with year-to-date total returns exceeding broader Canadian equity benchmarks. Sentiment has benefited from strength in capital markets revenue and overall earnings momentum observed in recent quarters. The stock has traded near multi-year highs amid sustained investor interest in Canadian financials.
TD Overview and Recent Performance
Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) is a leading North American financial institution with significant retail and commercial banking operations in Canada and the United States, alongside wealth and insurance segments. In recent market activity, TD has posted solid year-to-date gains, though trailing some peers in relative strength. Performance has been supported by stable Canadian operations and ongoing efficiency initiatives, with share price movement reflecting broader sector resilience in the current interest rate landscape.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both institutions follow a diversified banking model emphasizing retail deposits, lending, and fee-based services, yet TD holds greater U.S. revenue exposure, which can provide ballast during Canadian-specific slowdowns. Growth drivers include net interest income expansion and capital markets activity, areas where CM has recently shown pronounced strength. Recent momentum favors CM on a relative total return basis, while TD offers a comparatively lower valuation multiple in certain metrics. Risk considerations encompass credit exposure to commercial real estate and regulatory capital requirements (Common Equity Tier 1 ratio) for both, with sector-wide sensitivity to interest rate policy. Market sentiment remains positive overall, though trade-offs exist between CM’s domestic focus and growth profile versus TD’s broader geographic footprint.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including recent trend consistency, relative momentum, and positioning within the sector, Tickeron’s AI models would currently assign a higher probabilistic preference to CM over TD. This assessment reflects stronger recent performance alignment and capital markets tailwinds, though outcomes remain subject to evolving macroeconomic conditions and sector dynamics.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CM is a Buy and TD is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CM’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileTD’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- TD’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CM’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TD’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TD’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CM (@Major Banks) experienced а -6.22% price change this week, while TD (@Major Banks) price change was +0.68% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Major Banks industry was -0.03%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.26%, and the average quarterly price growth was +15.20%.
Reported Earning Dates
CM is expected to report earnings on Aug 27, 2026.
TD is expected to report earnings on Aug 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Major Banks (-0.03% weekly)Major banks are among the biggest companies in the world, often times with global reach and market capitalizations in the multi-billions. Large banks often have multiple arms spanning different disciplines, from deposits, to investment banking, to wealth management and insurance. The biggest banks often have key competitive advantages over smaller players in the industry in terms of brand recognition, cost of capital, and efficiency. Think J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
| CM | TD | CM / TD | |
| Capitalization | 97.3B | 184B | 53% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 19.832 | 20.297 | 98% |
| P/E Ratio | 14.86 | 18.35 | 81% |
| Revenue | 30.1B | 62.9B | 48% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 220B | 476B | 46% |
CM | TD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 80 | 12 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 78 Overvalued | 76 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 26 | 38 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 6 | 4 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 29 | 13 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 34 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TD's Valuation (76) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CM (78) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that TD’s stock grew similarly to CM’s over the last 12 months.
CM's Profit vs Risk Rating (26) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry is in the same range as TD (38) in the Major Banks industry. This means that CM’s stock grew similarly to TD’s over the last 12 months.
TD's SMR Rating (4) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CM (6) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that TD’s stock grew similarly to CM’s over the last 12 months.
TD's Price Growth Rating (42) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CM (46) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that TD’s stock grew similarly to CM’s over the last 12 months.
TD's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CM (29) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that TD’s stock grew similarly to CM’s over the last 12 months.
| CM | TD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 42% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 54% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 53% | 6 days ago 53% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 24 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 50% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 39% | 2 days ago 47% |
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TD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TD has been closely correlated with BMO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TD jumps, then BMO could also see price increases.