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CMC vs NUE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Commercial Metals Company (CMC) vs. Nucor Corporation (NUE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Nucor (NUE) has delivered a substantially stronger year-to-date return of over 52%, dwarfing Commercial Metals (CMC), which has traded roughly flat over the same period.
- Nucor's market capitalization of approximately $55 billion is more than seven times larger than Commercial Metals' $7.6 billion, reflecting its position as North America's largest and most diversified steel producer.
- CMC trades at a notably lower valuation — a trailing P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio near 13x versus NUE's 24x — offering a potential value entry point within the steel sector.
- Both companies benefit from favorable steel sector tailwinds, including recovering prices, tariffs that shield domestic producers, and resilient demand from construction and infrastructure end markets.
- CMC's recent precast concrete acquisitions and operational efficiency program position it for margin expansion, while NUE's scale and diversified product portfolio underpin more consistent earnings visibility.
Introduction
CMC and NUE represent two distinct yet interconnected plays on the U.S. steel and metals sector. Commercial Metals Company, with its integrated recycling, manufacturing, and fabrication operations, and Nucor Corporation, the largest steel producer in North America, both stand to benefit from ongoing infrastructure spending, tariff protections, and recovering steel prices. This comparison is particularly relevant for investors and traders seeking exposure to the cyclical materials sector — whether through a value-oriented mid-cap name or a large-cap industry leader with diversified earnings streams. Understanding how these two companies differ in scale, growth strategy, and market positioning can help market participants make more informed decisions in the current environment.
CMC Overview and Recent Performance
CMC, headquartered in Irving, Texas, operates an integrated network of scrap recycling facilities, electric arc furnace (EAF) mini-mills, steel fabrication plants, and construction product warehouses across the United States, Poland, and other international markets. The company's business model spans the full steel value chain — from processing ferrous and nonferrous scrap metals to manufacturing finished long steel products such as rebar, merchant bar, and wire rod, as well as fabricated rebar for commercial and infrastructure construction.
In recent market activity, CMC shares have traded near $69, with a 52-week range spanning roughly $50 to $85. The stock has been relatively range-bound on a year-to-date basis, with flat to slightly negative performance. However, the company's most recent quarterly results demonstrated notable operational momentum: fiscal third-quarter 2026 revenue reached $2.48 billion, up approximately 23% year-over-year, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.73 surpassed consensus estimates. Management has pointed to temporary headwinds — including planned mill maintenance outages and weather-related disruptions — that restrained an otherwise stronger quarter, while emphasizing that these factors are reversing.
CMC has also been executing a strategic transformation. The acquisitions of Concrete Pipe and Precast, LLC and Foley Products Company have positioned the firm as a leading precast concrete platform in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern United States. Meanwhile, the company's Transform, Advance, Grow (TAG) program has exceeded its targeted $150 million annualized run-rate EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) benefit. The upcoming completion of the West Virginia micro-mill is expected to reduce capital expenditures and unlock stronger free cash flow in the coming fiscal year.
NUE Overview and Recent Performance
NUE, based in Charlotte, North Carolina, is the largest and most diversified steel producer in North America. The company operates through three core segments: Steel Mills, Steel Products, and Raw Materials. Using electric arc furnace technology, Nucor produces a broad portfolio including steel sheet, plate, bars, structural products, and downstream fabricated goods such as joists, decking, and building systems. Its scale and product breadth give it exposure to end markets ranging from non-residential construction and infrastructure to automotive, energy, and data centers.
Nucor's stock has been a standout performer in the steel sector. Trading near $248, the shares have surged more than 52% year-to-date and roughly 77% over the trailing twelve months. The company's 52-week range spans from approximately $127 to $271, reflecting both the cyclical recovery and strong investor confidence. Nucor reported $9.5 billion in revenue for its most recent quarter, with quarterly net earnings reaching $743 million, driven by solid demand across key end markets and a healthy order backlog.
The company continues to invest aggressively in growth. Major capital projects include a new sheet mill in West Virginia and bar mills in North Carolina and Arizona. Nucor has also expanded through acquisitions, including Rytec Corporation (high-performance commercial doors) and Southwest Data Products (data center solutions). With an operating rate that improved to 85% from 75% a year earlier, strong liquidity exceeding $2.4 billion in cash and short-term investments, and a dividend track record of 209 consecutive quarterly payouts, Nucor has demonstrated both operational momentum and financial discipline.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
While both CMC and NUE operate in the steel industry and share exposure to construction and infrastructure demand, their business profiles diverge in meaningful ways. Nucor's unmatched scale — generating over $34 billion in annual revenue versus CMC's approximately $8.8 billion — provides cost advantages, pricing power, and the ability to serve a broader range of end markets. Nucor's integrated mini-mill network, combined with its downstream steel products and raw materials segments, creates a more diversified earnings stream that can better absorb commodity price volatility.
CMC, by contrast, occupies a more specialized niche. Its strength lies in the recycling-to-fabrication value chain, with a particular emphasis on rebar and construction-related products. The recent precast acquisitions represent a deliberate pivot toward higher-margin, less cyclical revenue streams. Where Nucor grows through massive greenfield capacity projects, CMC has leaned into bolt-on M&A (mergers and acquisitions) and operational efficiency programs to drive margin improvement.
Valuation tells a contrasting story. CMC's trailing P/E of roughly 13x is approximately half of NUE's 24x, and its forward P/E near 11x underscores a value-oriented profile. NUE, meanwhile, commands a premium multiple that reflects its market leadership, stronger recent momentum, and greater earnings visibility. From a risk perspective, both companies are exposed to steel price cycles and macroeconomic headwinds, but NUE's larger order backlog and diversified product mix may provide greater resilience during downturns. CMC's smaller size and ongoing integration of acquisitions introduce both higher upside potential and elevated execution risk.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, relative momentum, and sector positioning, Tickeron's AI analysis would likely favor NUE in the current market environment. Nucor's sustained year-to-date outperformance, stronger price trend structure, and clearer near-term catalysts — including capacity expansion milestones and robust order backlog — provide a more consistent foundation for trend-following strategies. While CMC's compressed valuation and operational self-help narrative offer a compelling value case, the stock's choppier price action and ongoing acquisition integration introduce greater variability. In probabilistic terms, NUE's combination of scale, momentum, and stability suggests a higher likelihood of maintaining its current trajectory, though CMC remains an intriguing alternative for investors focused on valuation and margin recovery.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CMC is a StrongBuy and NUE is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMC’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileNUE’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- CMC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- NUE’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMC’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NUE’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMC’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- NUE’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CMC (@Metal Fabrication) experienced а +7.72% price change this week, while NUE (@Steel) price change was +5.82% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Metal Fabrication industry was +7.11%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.11%, and the average quarterly price growth was +3.98%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Steel industry was +1.54%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.17%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.33%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMC is expected to report earnings on Oct 15, 2026.
NUE is expected to report earnings on Oct 26, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Metal Fabrication (+7.11% weekly)The industry is involved in value-added processes including creation of metal structures like machines and parts by cutting, bending and assembling, using various raw materials. A fabrication shop often bids on a project/job, and then builds the product if awarded the contract. Robotics and automation are making their way into the industry apparently to fill in skills gap[s19] . RBC Bearings Incorporated, Timken Company and Valmont Industries, Inc. are some of the largest metal fabrication companies in the U.S.
@Steel (+1.54% weekly)The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.
| CMC | NUE | CMC / NUE | |
| Capitalization | 8.37B | 61.9B | 14% |
| EBITDA | 1.15B | 5.03B | 23% |
| Gain YTD | 7.406 | 67.738 | 11% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.93 | 21.71 | 64% |
| Revenue | 8.85B | 34.2B | 26% |
| Total Cash | 560M | 506M | 111% |
| Total Debt | 3.4B | 7.12B | 48% |
CMC | NUE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 44 | 45 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 19 Undervalued | 25 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 23 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 61 | 68 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 42 | 3 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 100 | 64 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CMC's Valuation (19) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as NUE (25) in the Steel industry. This means that CMC’s stock grew similarly to NUE’s over the last 12 months.
NUE's Profit vs Risk Rating (23) in the Steel industry is in the same range as CMC (27) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that NUE’s stock grew similarly to CMC’s over the last 12 months.
CMC's SMR Rating (61) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as NUE (68) in the Steel industry. This means that CMC’s stock grew similarly to NUE’s over the last 12 months.
NUE's Price Growth Rating (3) in the Steel industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CMC (42) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that NUE’s stock grew somewhat faster than CMC’s over the last 12 months.
NUE's P/E Growth Rating (64) in the Steel industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CMC (100) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that NUE’s stock grew somewhat faster than CMC’s over the last 12 months.
| CMC | NUE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 75% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 75% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 76% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | N/A | 30 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 76% |
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CMC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CMC has been closely correlated with STLD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CMC jumps, then STLD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CMC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMC | 100% | -2.62% | ||
| STLD - CMC | 73% Closely correlated | -1.68% | ||
| RS - CMC | 68% Closely correlated | -0.70% | ||
| NUE - CMC | 66% Loosely correlated | -1.00% | ||
| MTUS - CMC | 65% Loosely correlated | -0.88% | ||
| WS - CMC | 63% Loosely correlated | -2.76% | ||
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NUE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NUE has been closely correlated with STLD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NUE jumps, then STLD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NUE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NUE | 100% | -1.00% | ||
| STLD - NUE | 83% Closely correlated | -1.68% | ||
| RS - NUE | 73% Closely correlated | -0.70% | ||
| CMC - NUE | 72% Closely correlated | -2.62% | ||
| MTUS - NUE | 57% Loosely correlated | -0.88% | ||
| TX - NUE | 56% Loosely correlated | -3.39% | ||
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