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CMC vs NUE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Commercial Metals Company (CMC) vs. Nucor Corporation (NUE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- NUE has outperformed CMC year-to-date (YTD), posting gains of about 30% compared to CMC's roughly 1%.
- NUE's market capitalization stands at approximately $48 billion, dwarfing CMC's $7.5 billion, reflecting greater scale in steel production.
- Both companies benefit from steel sector tailwinds like recovering prices and supply constraints, but NUE enjoys stronger analyst upgrades ahead of Q1 earnings.
- CMC trades at a lower price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15x versus NUE's 28x, offering potential value in the metals space.
- Recent developments include a board appointment at CMC to enhance valuation focus and raised price targets for NUE amid tight steel supply.
Introduction
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) and Nucor Corporation (NUE) are key players in the U.S. steel and metals sector, making them natural comparables for investors tracking industrial materials amid economic recovery and infrastructure demand. This analysis contrasts their business models, recent market positioning, and performance drivers in the current environment of fluctuating steel prices and supply dynamics. Traders seeking relative value or momentum in cyclical sectors, as well as long-term investors eyeing sector rotation, will find insights into how these stocks stack up in terms of growth potential, valuation, and sentiment shifts.
CMC Overview and Recent Performance
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) manufactures, recycles, and fabricates steel products across North America, Europe, and emerging markets. Its operations span scrap processing, rebar production, and construction-related services, with recent expansions via precast concrete acquisitions bolstering earnings. In recent market activity, CMC shares have shown modest YTD gains of about 1%, trading around $68 within a 52-week range of $43 to $85. Performance has been influenced by steel price volatility and sector-wide pressures, though a dividend increase and new board member Michael Dumais—tasked with valuation enhancement—have supported sentiment. Analysts maintain an average price target of $78, reflecting balanced views on its recycling edge and fabrication demand.
NUE Overview and Recent Performance
Nucor Corporation (NUE), the largest U.S. steel producer, operates via steel mills, products, and raw materials segments, emphasizing electric arc mini-mills for efficient production of sheets, bars, and structural steel. Recent quarters highlight capacity expansions and a strong safety record shaping 2026 outlooks. NUE shares have delivered robust YTD returns near 30%, trading around $212 in a 52-week range of $106 to $216. Momentum stems from anticipated Q1 earnings growth—projected at $2.79 per share earnings (EPS)—tight supply conditions, and potential tariff protections boosting steel prices. Analyst price targets have risen to around $193-$213, underscoring positive sector exposure.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
While both CMC and NUE thrive on steel demand from construction and manufacturing, their models differ: NUE's integrated production via mini-mills provides scale advantages over CMC's recycling and fabrication focus. Growth drivers include NUE's capacity builds versus CMC's mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in precast assets. Recent momentum favors NUE with superior YTD gains and analyst upgrades, while CMC offers cheaper entry via lower P/E amid valuation efforts. Risks are shared—commodity price swings and economic slowdowns—but NUE's larger backlog mitigates cyclicality better. Market sentiment tilts toward NUE on supply tightness and tariffs, contrasting CMC's steadier but less explosive positioning.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI analysis leans toward NUE in the current environment, driven by stronger trend consistency, YTD outperformance, and near-term catalysts like Q1 earnings and favorable steel dynamics. NUE's relative stability and sector leadership suggest a higher probability of continued upside versus CMC's value-oriented profile, though both warrant monitoring amid metals volatility.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CMC is a Hold and NUE is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMC’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileNUE’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- CMC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- NUE’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMC’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NUE’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- NUE’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CMC (@Metal Fabrication) experienced а -4.86% price change this week, while NUE (@Steel) price change was -5.55% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Metal Fabrication industry was -2.12%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +14.32%, and the average quarterly price growth was +12.24%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Steel industry was -6.52%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +144.13%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.81%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMC is expected to report earnings on Jun 25, 2026.
NUE is expected to report earnings on Jul 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Metal Fabrication (-2.12% weekly)The industry is involved in value-added processes including creation of metal structures like machines and parts by cutting, bending and assembling, using various raw materials. A fabrication shop often bids on a project/job, and then builds the product if awarded the contract. Robotics and automation are making their way into the industry apparently to fill in skills gap[s19] . RBC Bearings Incorporated, Timken Company and Valmont Industries, Inc. are some of the largest metal fabrication companies in the U.S.
@Steel (-6.52% weekly)The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.
| CMC | NUE | CMC / NUE | |
| Capitalization | 8.13B | 55.8B | 15% |
| EBITDA | 1B | 5.03B | 20% |
| Gain YTD | 6.477 | 50.675 | 13% |
| P/E Ratio | 16.40 | 24.30 | 67% |
| Revenue | 8.39B | 34.2B | 25% |
| Total Cash | 495M | 2.48B | 20% |
| Total Debt | 3.36B | 7.12B | 47% |
CMC | NUE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 59 | 85 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 24 Undervalued | 22 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 30 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 66 | 68 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 5 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 100 | 42 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NUE's Valuation (22) in the Steel industry is in the same range as CMC (24) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that NUE’s stock grew similarly to CMC’s over the last 12 months.
CMC's Profit vs Risk Rating (27) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as NUE (30) in the Steel industry. This means that CMC’s stock grew similarly to NUE’s over the last 12 months.
CMC's SMR Rating (66) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as NUE (68) in the Steel industry. This means that CMC’s stock grew similarly to NUE’s over the last 12 months.
NUE's Price Growth Rating (5) in the Steel industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CMC (45) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that NUE’s stock grew somewhat faster than CMC’s over the last 12 months.
NUE's P/E Growth Rating (42) in the Steel industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CMC (100) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that NUE’s stock grew somewhat faster than CMC’s over the last 12 months.
| CMC | NUE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 71% | 12 days ago 76% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 63% | 6 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 76% |
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NUE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NUE has been closely correlated with STLD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NUE jumps, then STLD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NUE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NUE | 100% | +0.45% | ||
| STLD - NUE | 80% Closely correlated | +0.42% | ||
| CMC - NUE | 72% Closely correlated | +1.29% | ||
| RS - NUE | 64% Loosely correlated | +1.80% | ||
| TX - NUE | 56% Loosely correlated | +0.71% | ||
| MTUS - NUE | 56% Loosely correlated | +2.07% | ||
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