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CMC vs NUE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Commercial Metals Company (CMC) vs. Nucor Corporation (NUE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CMC is a mid-cap steelmaker repositioning toward construction solutions, while NUE is North America's largest steel producer by volume, giving each a distinct scale and risk profile.
- Both names are riding firmer domestic steel pricing and tariff protection, but their recent momentum has been driven by different catalysts: a fiscal fourth-quarter earnings beat for CMC and strong steel mill shipments for NUE.
- CMC trades at a lower valuation multiple and carries higher beta, while NUE offers greater product diversification and a much larger market capitalization.
- NUE's recovery is broad-based across flat and long products, whereas CMC's story is more concentrated in North American steel and an early-stage precast construction platform.
- Capital-return profiles differ meaningfully: NUE recently authorized a $4 billion buyback and extended a 212-quarter dividend streak, while CMC is pulling forward its own repurchase program.
- For additional context, readers can explore CMC Major News and CMC Today's Price Move, as well as NUE Major News and NUE Today's Price Move.
- Investors interested in an algorithmic view of these and thousands of other tickers can explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) and Nucor Corporation (NUE) are two of the most closely watched names in U.S. steel, yet they occupy different ends of the sector's spectrum. CMC is a mid-cap manufacturer of rebar, merchant bar, and fabricated steel that has expanded aggressively into precast concrete construction products. Nucor is the largest steel producer in North America, with a diversified portfolio spanning steel mills, downstream products, and raw materials. This stock comparison is relevant for investors evaluating scale versus focus, valuation versus diversification, and how each company converts elevated steel prices and trade-policy support into earnings and relative performance.
CMC Overview and Recent Performance
Commercial Metals Company (CMC), based in Irving, Texas, operates steel mills, fabrication plants, and metal recycling facilities across North America and Europe. Its business centers on long-steel products used in nonresidential construction, supported by a fast-growing precast segment that positions the company as an early-stage construction solutions platform.
In recent weeks, CMC reported fiscal fourth-quarter results that exceeded analyst expectations, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS, a measure of profit allocated to each outstanding share) of $2.09 and revenue of roughly $2.66 billion. Strength was concentrated in the North America Steel Group, where segment margins widened on higher selling prices and metal margins near $652 per ton, aided by resilient merchant bar demand tied to industrial and data-center construction. Offsetting this, the precast business fell short of management's prior targets amid softness in Southeastern residential construction, and the ramp of the company's West Virginia micro mill has progressed more slowly than initially projected. These mixed signals have kept sentiment balanced even as the underlying steel franchise performed well.
NUE Overview and Recent Performance
Nucor Corporation (NUE), headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, is the largest steel producer in the United States and a leading scrap recycler. It builds its mills around electric arc furnaces (EAFs), which melt recycled steel rather than smelting iron ore, providing flexibility and a lower cost base across the cycle. The company operates steel mills, steel products, and raw materials segments serving construction, automotive, energy, and industrial markets.
Nucor's recent market activity has reflected a broad earnings recovery. In its latest reported quarter, the company posted roughly $10.4 billion in net sales and adjusted EPS near $4.84, up sharply year over year, alongside a second consecutive record for steel mill shipments. Management has guided third-quarter EPS to a range of $5.55 to $5.65, supported by hot-rolled steel prices that have climbed to multi-year highs. The company continues to invest in capacity, including its West Virginia sheet mill and a $60 million expansion of its utility-infrastructure towers business, while returning capital through dividends and a new $4 billion repurchase authorization. Valuation has become fuller as the stock approaches its 52-week high, a factor some analysts have flagged even as they maintain constructive ratings.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page curates a focused selection of algorithmic trading strategies from a much larger universe of AI-powered bots that monitor thousands of tickers, including CMC and NUE. These bots vary considerably in trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance history, and the specific set of securities they follow, so only those deemed most suitable for current market conditions earn placement in this featured section. The page highlights key statistics and performance metrics to help traders evaluate how different approaches are navigating today's environment. Readers looking for a data-driven complement to fundamental analysis can explore the Trending AI Robots page to see which strategies are currently in focus.
Head-to-Head Comparison
Despite operating in the same industry, CMC and NUE offer distinct market positioning. Nucor is a diversified, large-cap producer with meaningful exposure to flat-rolled sheet, plate, and structural steel, giving it breadth across industrial and infrastructure end markets. CMC is more concentrated in long products and construction, with its precast platform adding a differentiated growth angle but also introducing integration and execution risk.
On valuation, CMC trades at a lower forward earnings multiple, reflecting its smaller scale and the uncertainty around its newer precast segment. NUE commands a premium multiple supported by its diversification, scale, and stronger balance sheet, which carries a notably low net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio (EBITDA meaning earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization). In terms of momentum, both stocks have benefited from firmer domestic pricing and tariff-driven support, though NUE's recovery is broader while CMC's is more dependent on a single steel franchise.
Risk profiles also differ. CMC's higher beta indicates greater sensitivity to market swings, and its near-term outlook includes seasonal softness and precast headwinds. NUE's principal risks center on execution of large new capacity projects and its fuller valuation, which leaves less room for disappointment if steel prices retreat.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, breadth of earnings momentum, and balance-sheet stability, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward NUE in the current environment. Nucor's recovery is visible across multiple product lines and confirmed by record mill shipments, elevated steel pricing, and consistent capital returns, all of which tend to produce more stable, sustained trend signals. CMC's steel operations are performing well and its valuation is more modest, but the precast shortfall and slower micro-mill ramp introduce elements of uncertainty that can weigh on algorithmic confidence. That said, this reflects a probabilistic assessment of relative positioning rather than a definitive forecast, and conditions could shift as either company's catalysts evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CMC is a Buy and NUE is a Hold.
CMC's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CMC turned positive on October 28, 2026. Looking at past instances where CMC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +3.11% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CMC advanced for three days, in 214 of 303 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
CMC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 23, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CMC as a result. In 50 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CMC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator for CMC entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 53 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.566) is normal, around the industry mean (2.934). P/E Ratio (12.015) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.384). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.320) is also within normal values, averaging (0.744). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.029) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.840) is also within normal values, averaging (5901.087).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CMC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
NUE in +5.61% Uptrend, advancing for three consecutive days on October 28, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where NUE advanced for three days, in 259 of 341 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NUE as a result. In 56 of 75 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NUE just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where NUE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
NUE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NUE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NUE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
NUE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for NUE entered a downward trend on October 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. NUE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 55 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.789) is normal, around the industry mean (2.228). P/E Ratio (21.657) is within average values for comparable stocks, (35.759). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.020) is also within normal values, averaging (0.339). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.070) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.657) is also within normal values, averaging (2.301).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
CMC | NUE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 87 | 38 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 53 Fair valued | 55 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 21 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 59 | 60 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 10 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 95 | 62 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CMC's Valuation (53) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as NUE (55) in the Steel industry. This means that CMC’s stock grew similarly to NUE’s over the last 12 months.
NUE's Profit vs Risk Rating (21) in the Steel industry is in the same range as CMC (31) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that NUE’s stock grew similarly to CMC’s over the last 12 months.
CMC's SMR Rating (59) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as NUE (60) in the Steel industry. This means that CMC’s stock grew similarly to NUE’s over the last 12 months.
NUE's Price Growth Rating (10) in the Steel industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CMC (58) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that NUE’s stock grew somewhat faster than CMC’s over the last 12 months.
NUE's P/E Growth Rating (62) in the Steel industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CMC (95) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that NUE’s stock grew somewhat faster than CMC’s over the last 12 months.
| CMC | NUE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 73% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 75% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 76% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 22 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 43% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while NUE’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CMC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NUE’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMC’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NUE’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- NUE’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CMC (@Metal Fabrication) experienced а +0.17% price change this week, while NUE (@Steel) price change was +2.74% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Metal Fabrication industry was -3.23%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.37%, and the average quarterly price growth was -11.19%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Steel industry was +0.60%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.38%, and the average quarterly price growth was +28.85%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMC is expected to report earnings on Jan 11, 2027.
NUE is expected to report earnings on Feb 01, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Metal Fabrication (-3.23% weekly)The industry is involved in value-added processes including creation of metal structures like machines and parts by cutting, bending and assembling, using various raw materials. A fabrication shop often bids on a project/job, and then builds the product if awarded the contract. Robotics and automation are making their way into the industry apparently to fill in skills gap[s19] . RBC Bearings Incorporated, Timken Company and Valmont Industries, Inc. are some of the largest metal fabrication companies in the U.S.
@Steel (+0.60% weekly)The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.
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NUE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NUE has been closely correlated with STLD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NUE jumps, then STLD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NUE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NUE | 100% | +0.37% | ||
| STLD - NUE | 88% Closely correlated | +1.29% | ||
| RS - NUE | 76% Closely correlated | +1.01% | ||
| CMC - NUE | 72% Closely correlated | +1.18% | ||
| MTUS - NUE | 57% Loosely correlated | +0.19% | ||
| TX - NUE | 56% Loosely correlated | -1.39% | ||
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