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NUE vs STLD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Nucor Corporation (NUE) vs. Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both NUE and STLD have delivered strong year-to-date gains of approximately 30% and 32%, respectively, amid rising U.S. steel prices.
- STLD reported record Q1 shipments and revenue beat, with EPS slightly missing estimates, boosting recent momentum.
- NUE benefits from analyst upgrades and upcoming Q1 earnings, supported by tight steel supply.
- STLD shows superior long-term returns, with 5-year gains over 360% versus NUE's 194%.
- Steel sector tailwinds like higher hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices at $1,055 and declining imports favor both in recent market activity.
- Tickeron's AI leans toward STLD for its operational efficiency and relative valuation.
Introduction
NUE and STLD, two leading U.S. steel producers, operate in a cyclical industry sensitive to commodity prices, infrastructure demand, and trade policies. This comparison is relevant for value-oriented investors and momentum traders navigating recent steel price rallies and potential tariff impacts. Both companies exemplify electric arc furnace (EAF) efficiency, minimizing reliance on imported slabs, but differ in scale, product mix, and performance metrics. Traders seeking relative performance insights in the materials sector will find contrasts in growth trajectories, profitability, and market positioning particularly useful amid broader economic shifts.
NUE Overview and Recent Performance
Nucor Corporation (NUE), the largest U.S. steel producer, focuses on recycled scrap via EAF technology, serving construction, automotive, and energy sectors. In recent weeks, NUE's stock has surged over 30% year-to-date and nearly 90% over the past year, trading near its 52-week high of $216 with a market cap exceeding $48 billion. Sentiment has improved on analyst price target hikes, such as JPMorgan's to $212, citing tight supply, and anticipation for Q1 earnings. Rising HRC prices to $1,055 and robust domestic production have supported performance, though shares pulled back slightly amid broader market volatility.
STLD Overview and Recent Performance
Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD), a mini-mill operator emphasizing flat-rolled steel and recycling, caters to automotive, construction, and appliance markets. Recent market activity has propelled shares up 32% year-to-date and 77% annually, hovering around $223 with a $32 billion market cap. Q1 results highlighted record shipments, $5.2 billion revenue beating estimates, and $2.78 EPS (diluted earnings per share), despite a slight miss, with net income at $403 million. Analyst upgrades, including Citigroup's $255 target, reflect optimism on demand from tariffs and efficiency, driving outperformance versus benchmarks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both NUE and STLD leverage EAF for cost advantages in a sector buoyed by rising steel prices and lower imports, but NUE's larger scale ($48B market cap vs. $32B) provides broader diversification across steel products. Growth drivers differ: STLD excels in flat-rolled volumes with record shipments, while NUE emphasizes downstream fabrication. Recent momentum favors STLD (YTD 32% vs. 30%), with superior ROE (return on equity, 15% vs. 9%) and operating margins (10% vs. 7%). Risk factors include commodity volatility and trade policy shifts; STLD's higher debt/equity (48% vs. 33%) adds leverage exposure. Market sentiment tilts toward STLD post-earnings, though NUE's forward P/E (price-to-earnings, 18 vs. 16) suggests balanced valuation trade-offs.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently favors STLD over NUE, based on stronger recent momentum, record operational metrics, higher profitability ratios, and superior multi-year returns amid steel sector tailwinds. While NUE offers scale stability, STLD's trend consistency and catalysts like tariff-driven demand position it probabilistically better for near-term outperformance, subject to market dynamics.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NUE is a StrongBuy and STLD is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NUE’s FA Score shows that 4 FA rating(s) are green whileSTLD’s FA Score has 4 green FA rating(s).
- NUE’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
- STLD’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NUE’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while STLD’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NUE’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- STLD’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
NUE (@Steel) experienced а +1.76% price change this week, while STLD (@Steel) price change was +3.21% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Steel industry was -4.32%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.59%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.49%.
Reported Earning Dates
NUE is expected to report earnings on Jul 27, 2026.
STLD is expected to report earnings on Jul 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Steel (-4.32% weekly)The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.
| NUE | STLD | NUE / STLD | |
| Capitalization | 57.9B | 38.7B | 150% |
| EBITDA | 4.22B | 2.39B | 176% |
| Gain YTD | 56.494 | 58.944 | 96% |
| P/E Ratio | 25.24 | 28.78 | 88% |
| Revenue | 32.5B | 19B | 171% |
| Total Cash | 506M | 557M | 91% |
| Total Debt | 6.85B | 4.2B | 163% |
NUE | STLD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 42 | 39 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 22 Undervalued | 26 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 26 | 3 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 78 | 56 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 7 | 7 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 33 | 15 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NUE's Valuation (22) in the Steel industry is in the same range as STLD (26). This means that NUE’s stock grew similarly to STLD’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the Steel industry is in the same range as NUE (26). This means that STLD’s stock grew similarly to NUE’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's SMR Rating (56) in the Steel industry is in the same range as NUE (78). This means that STLD’s stock grew similarly to NUE’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's Price Growth Rating (7) in the Steel industry is in the same range as NUE (7). This means that STLD’s stock grew similarly to NUE’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's P/E Growth Rating (15) in the Steel industry is in the same range as NUE (33). This means that STLD’s stock grew similarly to NUE’s over the last 12 months.
| NUE | STLD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 66% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 60% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 75% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 82% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 78% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 64% | 20 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 60% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 74% |
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NUE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NUE has been closely correlated with STLD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NUE jumps, then STLD could also see price increases.
STLD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, STLD has been closely correlated with NUE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if STLD jumps, then NUE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To STLD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STLD | 100% | -3.02% | ||
| NUE - STLD | 81% Closely correlated | -3.01% | ||
| CMC - STLD | 74% Closely correlated | -2.78% | ||
| RS - STLD | 66% Closely correlated | -0.52% | ||
| TX - STLD | 57% Loosely correlated | -4.19% | ||
| CLF - STLD | 56% Loosely correlated | -6.24% | ||
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