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NUE vs STLD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Nucor Corporation (NUE) vs. Steel Dynamics (STLD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale vs. diversification: NUE is the larger and more diversified North American steel producer, while STLD is a leaner operator pivoting aggressively into aluminum.
- Relative performance: Over the past year, STLD's share price has advanced more than NUE's, though both have lagged the broader steel industry rally.
- Earnings backdrop: Both companies posted weaker year-over-year full-year earnings in 2025, driven by lower realized steel pricing, while revenue held up or grew.
- Balance sheet strength: NUE carries the strongest credit ratings in the North American steel sector (A-/A-/A3), while STLD runs with low leverage and substantial liquidity.
- Growth catalysts differ: NUE is ramping new sheet and utility-tower capacity, whereas STLD's largest catalyst is the commissioning of its recycled-content aluminum mill.
- Shared macro tailwind: Reinstated Section 232 steel tariffs have sharply reduced steel imports, supporting domestic pricing and backlogs for both companies.
Introduction
Nucor Corporation and Steel Dynamics are two of the most closely watched names in the U.S. metals and mining sector, and a direct stock comparison between them is a recurring exercise for traders and long-term investors alike. Both operate electric-arc-furnace mills that melt recycled scrap, giving each a structurally lower-cost and lower-carbon profile than traditional integrated steelmakers. Yet their market positioning diverges in important ways. This comparison is most relevant for investors weighing scale and downstream diversification against a faster-growing, aluminum-adjacent growth story. Because the two companies share the same macro drivers—steel prices, tariffs, and construction demand—their relative performance often comes down to execution, capital allocation, and momentum.
NUE Overview and Recent Performance
NUE (Nucor Corporation) is North America's largest steel producer and recycler, with operations spanning steel mills, steel products, and raw materials across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. In recent quarters, its performance has been shaped by a rebound in realized pricing and robust end-market demand, offset by seasonal volume softness and margin compression in sheet products. Nucor reported fourth-quarter 2025 net sales of roughly $7.7 billion, up about 8.6% year over year, while adjusted earnings per share rose from the prior-year period but came in modestly below consensus estimates. Sentiment has been supported by historically strong order backlogs—up nearly 40% year over year in the steel mills segment—along with the reinstatement of Section 232 steel tariffs, which management notes has helped reduce the import share of the U.S. finished steel market from roughly 25% to around 14%. Recent market activity has also reflected progress on growth projects, including a new West Virginia sheet mill and utility transmission tower facilities, which management expects to strengthen earnings power over time.
STLD Overview and Recent Performance
STLD (Steel Dynamics, Inc.) is a leading U.S. steel producer and metal recycler with a growing steel fabrication platform and a new recycled-content aluminum business. In recent quarters, the company's performance has been defined by record steel shipments—approximately 13.7 million tons for full-year 2025—alongside a deliberate expansion into aluminum flat-rolled products. Steel Dynamics reported fourth-quarter 2025 net sales of about $4.4 billion, up roughly 14% year over year, with earnings per share beating consensus even as revenue came in slightly light. Full-year operating income declined on lower realized steel pricing, but sentiment has been buoyed by the aluminum ramp: the Columbus, Mississippi mill began shipping product and turned EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) positive in December 2025. The company also completed the acquisition of New Process Steel and returned capital through buybacks and dividends. An unsolicited offer to acquire BlueScope's North American assets, made with a partner, was rejected, underscoring an assertive growth agenda even amid execution risk around the aluminum startup.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
When comparing the two, scale is the most immediate distinction. NUE generates roughly $32 billion in annual revenue across a broad downstream portfolio—from beams and rebar to utility structures and recycled metals—while STLD produces around $18 billion with a tighter focus on flat-rolled sheet, fabrication, and an emerging aluminum franchise. This gives NUE greater diversification and a wider product mix, but it also means its results are spread across many end markets. STLD's model is more concentrated, which can amplify both upside and downside to pricing swings in its core products.
Growth drivers also diverge. NUE's near-term catalysts are tied to ramping new sheet capacity, galvanizing lines, and transmission-tower facilities serving infrastructure and data-center demand. STLD's most distinctive catalyst is its aluminum mill, a counter-cyclical expansion into beverage can and packaging markets that is still in commissioning. On risk factors, both face steel-price cyclicality and exposure to interest-rate-sensitive construction, but STLD carries additional execution risk from its aluminum ramp and its recent acquisition activity, while NUE's higher long-term debt load is offset by the sector's strongest credit ratings. In terms of market sentiment, both have benefited from tariff-driven import displacement, though STLD's stronger recent share-price momentum reflects investor enthusiasm for its diversification into aluminum.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward STLD on a near-term momentum basis, given its relatively stronger recent price trend and the clear, quantifiable catalyst of the aluminum mill reaching positive EBITDA with capacity utilization still ramping. That said, NUE presents a more stable, diversified profile with superior credit quality, a longer dividend-growth record, and a broader set of demand tailwinds. In probabilistic terms, the AI framework would likely favor STLD where trend consistency and catalyst visibility dominate, while favoring NUE where balance-sheet strength and diversification are weighted more heavily. The outcome depends on how a given strategy prioritizes momentum versus stability, rather than on any definitive claim about future returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NUE is a Hold and STLD is a Hold.
NUE in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on September 21, 2026
NUE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 29 of 37 cases where NUE's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NUE's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 26 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NUE as a result. In 55 of 75 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NUE just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where NUE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
NUE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.10% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NUE advanced for three days, in 263 of 343 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for NUE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NUE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator for NUE entered a downward trend on October 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NUE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.630) is normal, around the industry mean (2.171). P/E Ratio (20.422) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.715). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.020) is also within normal values, averaging (0.339). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.060) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.657) is also within normal values, averaging (2.301).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
STLD's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for STLD turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where STLD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 44 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on STLD as a result. In 72 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
STLD moved above its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for STLD crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 14 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Following a +1.58% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where STLD advanced for three days, in 263 of 337 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
STLD may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where STLD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator for STLD entered a downward trend on October 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. STLD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 59 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.731) is normal, around the industry mean (2.171). P/E Ratio (22.167) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.715). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.050) is also within normal values, averaging (0.339). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.060) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.693) is also within normal values, averaging (2.301).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
NUE | STLD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 50 Fair valued | 59 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 24 | 9 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 60 | 50 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 22 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 32 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NUE's Valuation (50) in the Steel industry is in the same range as STLD (59). This means that NUE’s stock grew similarly to STLD’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Steel industry is in the same range as NUE (24). This means that STLD’s stock grew similarly to NUE’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's SMR Rating (50) in the Steel industry is in the same range as NUE (60). This means that STLD’s stock grew similarly to NUE’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's Price Growth Rating (22) in the Steel industry is in the same range as NUE (38). This means that STLD’s stock grew similarly to NUE’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's P/E Growth Rating (32) in the Steel industry is in the same range as NUE (60). This means that STLD’s stock grew similarly to NUE’s over the last 12 months.
| NUE | STLD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 62% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 82% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 72% | 4 days ago 85% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 78% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 77% | 6 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 78% | 4 days ago 82% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 41% | 4 days ago 47% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NUE’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while STLD’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- NUE’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- STLD’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NUE’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while STLD’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NUE’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- STLD’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
NUE (@Steel) experienced а +3.53% price change this week, while STLD (@Steel) price change was +0.91% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Steel industry was +0.61%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.26%, and the average quarterly price growth was +18.11%.
Reported Earning Dates
NUE is expected to report earnings on Oct 26, 2026.
STLD is expected to report earnings on Oct 19, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Steel (+0.61% weekly)The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.
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NUE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NUE has been closely correlated with STLD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NUE jumps, then STLD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NUE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NUE | 100% | +1.73% | ||
| STLD - NUE | 88% Closely correlated | +1.92% | ||
| RS - NUE | 76% Closely correlated | +1.09% | ||
| CMC - NUE | 72% Closely correlated | -0.68% | ||
| MTUS - NUE | 58% Loosely correlated | +1.17% | ||
| CLF - NUE | 56% Loosely correlated | +16.34% | ||
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STLD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, STLD has been closely correlated with NUE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if STLD jumps, then NUE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To STLD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STLD | 100% | +1.92% | ||
| NUE - STLD | 88% Closely correlated | +1.73% | ||
| RS - STLD | 77% Closely correlated | +1.09% | ||
| CMC - STLD | 74% Closely correlated | -0.68% | ||
| TX - STLD | 57% Loosely correlated | +1.86% | ||
| GGB - STLD | 56% Loosely correlated | +2.19% | ||
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